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People seem to assume tech progress is always some linear or exponential thing where things just keep getting better. They can’t imagine we could also just hit
by xwdv 4y ago
People seem to assume tech progress is always some linear or exponential thing where things just keep getting better.
They can’t imagine we could also just hit a plateau and have no progress for a decade until some other major breakthrough happens.
AI art is hitting a plateau or has hit a plateau. Progress came quickly for months but nowadays each update is just a bit better details with more resolution and better hands. That’s it.
If you have AI anxiety, just read my comment history.
- heavyset_go 4y agoIs there a name for this fallacy? Because I see it a lot.
- xwdv 4y agoMaybe whatever you call “past performance doesn’t imply future results” or something.
- antondd 4y ago(Roughly) Amara's Law: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
- dpkirchner 4y agoFalse uniqueness effect? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/False-uniqueness_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/False-uniqueness_effect
- s1artibartfast 4y agoIs there a name for the technology advancement fallacy? I see all the time that people think with enough time technology will simply make every problem surmountable. It doesn't matter if it's limited by physics, conservation of energy, or reality
- it_citizen 4y agoI am not saying that some linear or exponential curve is certain but so far I don't see any sign of slowing down. The research papers seem actually full of new avenues and very promising low hanging fruits. > AI art is hitting a plateau or has hit a plateau. I am not sure I am following. Are you saying AI art has hit a plateau since stable diffusion and dall-e 2 got released? This is less than a year ago. Look for plateau at the scale of a 5 to 10 years, not 6 months.