6 ms·

I am curious at what point this violent recurring "dawn" to software engineers (in Silicon Valley specifically) is going to lead to the creation of a Guild. Co

I am curious at what point this violent recurring "dawn" to software engineers (in Silicon Valley specifically) is going to lead to the creation of a Guild. Consider that remote work is more prevalent, the healthcare situation is not getting any better in the U.S. and in this space it has become more common for employees to have to move between companies regardless. Then the certainty of having a comfortable job at Google or Meta evaporates violently. To the point, where mothers while giving birth learn they are fired. And then we have things like ...Twitter. Say you were laid off by FAANG or a notable startup and the same or adjacent company reaches out to you a year from now to rehire you, as the "bull market is here." What will you do? The instability is here to stay for a while. This can happen in 2025 again pretty easily. What is that critical mass of engineers that would demand a startup gets guild approved to join? I can see that happening if one of FAANG becomes a guild company but they will fight tooth and nail to avoid that. As an investor that is a nightmare, if a minority of startups are in this situation. On the other hand if that is the status quo to getting great people, I can accept that overhead.

paulddraper 4y ago
Every industry has gotten less and less unionized. Why would software buck the trend?
- paulv 4y ago
  Starbucks has way more unionized stores now than last year.
  - paulddraper 4y ago
    True
- techdragon 4y ago
  Because we’re smart enough to see the difference between a craftsman’s guild and a traditional workers union. For starters guilds tend to have progression by merit, requiring an apprentice prove they are competent enough to be considered a journeyman. And you know … not wanting to be exploited… healthcare sounds nice… ( on this point, I’d like to point out that as an Australian software engineer, I long ago resolved to never start a company in America because of how insane healthcare in America is. I can understand the guns, the polarised politics and all the rest of the things that make America what it is… but healthcare is just so fucking insane that i haven’t even seriously considered taking a holiday there to see the museums that have been on my bucket list for half my life… the idea of starting a business there is just an immediate non starter… I’ll take US cash and setup a holding corp if they demand US incorporation and employ people elsewhere… so having a guild where healthcare was provided would make American developers more competitive in the job market)
  - SamoyedFurFluff 4y ago
    I would join a guild for at minimum protection for our fellow h1b visa holders. They’re constantly and regularly abused.
    - ummonk 4y ago
      We should just eliminate H1bs and expand the green card program together with eliminating per country quotas. Relying on a union to protect workers with precarious visas is really just trying to address the symptom rather than the cause.
      - SamoyedFurFluff 4y ago
        Sure, I would join a union with the political clout to do the lobbying needed.
  - throwaway2037 4y ago
    Are they any Real World examples of "guild" vs "union"? About the US healthcare expenses: When you travel on holiday, you can buy pretty reasonable travel insurance. For example (no shilling): You can get one week of healthcare coverage from World Nomads for 130 AUD. Not so bad.
    - markus92 4y ago
      130 AUD for a week is considered reasonable?? For travel insurance even?
    - techdragon 4y ago
      Unfortunately the only “real world” examples I can personally think of for craft guilds are from more than a century ago, making them quite poor examples of the practice in a modern context. However if your not opposed to a little bit of history, I’d recommend checking out the history of craft guilds which goes back well over a millennium and it represents one of the earliest forms of “qualification” outside of religious or spiritual contexts (since determining if you have a suitable priest of Zeus, etc… has basically been a thing since forever)
twblalock 4y ago
I certainly wouldn’t join a union (and a “guild” would not be legally distinguishable from one). I don’t want a levelling effect in our industry. I don’t want gatekeeping either. We aren’t interchangeable cogs, and people who do better than average should not be held down. Promising people with nontraditional backgrounds should not be prevented from entering the field. Despite what people claim, unions would definitely hold people down and lock out new people. Things are going really well for us actually, compared to people in other professions. That’s partly the case because our industry has been able to remain dynamic and innovative. Much of the success we’ve seen was built by people with nontraditional professional backgrounds and would not have happened if we got bogged down by gatekeeping and credentialism. When the pie stops growing and we need to fight management over how to divide it, maybe a union will be attractive. But right now the pie is growing rapidly and workers are getting a huge amount of it in the form of both cash and stock. I’m all for continuing with this free, dynamic, and incredibly successful model. By the way, unions don’t make layoffs a thing of the past. Look at what happens in the auto industry. The beat thing we can do for laid-off tech workers is ensure that we keep our industry dynamic, so there will continue to be new employers to work for.
- steele 4y ago
  I want a leveling effect, but I don't live on a US coast...
- grensley 4y ago
  My guess is 80% of developers think they're above average.
  - darkerside 4y ago
    Depending on the distribution, they may be correct
- xref 4y ago
  > We aren’t interchangeable cogs Turns out we largely are, just like in most other industries. Probably like to think we’re irreplaceable snowflakes. But we’re not. > people who do better than average should not be held down Ah yes that old chestnut, that unions mandate No Employee May Achieve Above Average
steele 4y ago
Employees are often investors too
csomar 4y ago
There will be no guild or union. Guilds exists where the market has difficulty moving/outsourcing. If you have a mine in Alabama, you can't mine it from China. You are going to mine it with the most powerful group of the closest community (that happens to be the "union" of mining). In tech, a union/guild is massive hamper on efficiency and control. Tech will quickly be outsourced to other places. It has become easier and more possible to outsource to other countries now (English is becoming more common, and education has improved in third-world countries). This will accelerate that.
trgn 4y ago
Wrt your guild-proposal specifically, one concrete outcome I'd like to see is accreditation, something similar like certification exams administered by society of actuarians. High bar standardized exam on fundamentals of CompSci, which waives every whiteboarding/leetcode interview. It sort of exists today, if you have a CompSci degree from reputable college, but this way people can get the certificate without the formal education, just pass the exam. It's ok if it's difficult.

paulddraper 4y ago

Every industry has gotten less and less unionized. Why would software buck the trend?

paulv 4y ago
Starbucks has way more unionized stores now than last year.
- paulddraper 4y ago
  True
techdragon 4y ago
Because we’re smart enough to see the difference between a craftsman’s guild and a traditional workers union. For starters guilds tend to have progression by merit, requiring an apprentice prove they are competent enough to be considered a journeyman. And you know … not wanting to be exploited… healthcare sounds nice… ( on this point, I’d like to point out that as an Australian software engineer, I long ago resolved to never start a company in America because of how insane healthcare in America is. I can understand the guns, the polarised politics and all the rest of the things that make America what it is… but healthcare is just so fucking insane that i haven’t even seriously considered taking a holiday there to see the museums that have been on my bucket list for half my life… the idea of starting a business there is just an immediate non starter… I’ll take US cash and setup a holding corp if they demand US incorporation and employ people elsewhere… so having a guild where healthcare was provided would make American developers more competitive in the job market)
- SamoyedFurFluff 4y ago
  I would join a guild for at minimum protection for our fellow h1b visa holders. They’re constantly and regularly abused.
  - ummonk 4y ago
    We should just eliminate H1bs and expand the green card program together with eliminating per country quotas. Relying on a union to protect workers with precarious visas is really just trying to address the symptom rather than the cause.
    - SamoyedFurFluff 4y ago
      Sure, I would join a union with the political clout to do the lobbying needed.
- throwaway2037 4y ago
  Are they any Real World examples of "guild" vs "union"? About the US healthcare expenses: When you travel on holiday, you can buy pretty reasonable travel insurance. For example (no shilling): You can get one week of healthcare coverage from World Nomads for 130 AUD. Not so bad.
  - markus92 4y ago
    130 AUD for a week is considered reasonable?? For travel insurance even?
  - techdragon 4y ago
    Unfortunately the only “real world” examples I can personally think of for craft guilds are from more than a century ago, making them quite poor examples of the practice in a modern context. However if your not opposed to a little bit of history, I’d recommend checking out the history of craft guilds which goes back well over a millennium and it represents one of the earliest forms of “qualification” outside of religious or spiritual contexts (since determining if you have a suitable priest of Zeus, etc… has basically been a thing since forever)

twblalock 4y ago

I certainly wouldn’t join a union (and a “guild” would not be legally distinguishable from one). I don’t want a levelling effect in our industry. I don’t want gatekeeping either. We aren’t interchangeable cogs, and people who do better than average should not be held down. Promising people with nontraditional backgrounds should not be prevented from entering the field. Despite what people claim, unions would definitely hold people down and lock out new people. Things are going really well for us actually, compared to people in other professions. That’s partly the case because our industry has been able to remain dynamic and innovative. Much of the success we’ve seen was built by people with nontraditional professional backgrounds and would not have happened if we got bogged down by gatekeeping and credentialism. When the pie stops growing and we need to fight management over how to divide it, maybe a union will be attractive. But right now the pie is growing rapidly and workers are getting a huge amount of it in the form of both cash and stock. I’m all for continuing with this free, dynamic, and incredibly successful model. By the way, unions don’t make layoffs a thing of the past. Look at what happens in the auto industry. The beat thing we can do for laid-off tech workers is ensure that we keep our industry dynamic, so there will continue to be new employers to work for.

steele 4y ago
I want a leveling effect, but I don't live on a US coast...
grensley 4y ago
My guess is 80% of developers think they're above average.
- darkerside 4y ago
  Depending on the distribution, they may be correct
xref 4y ago
> We aren’t interchangeable cogs Turns out we largely are, just like in most other industries. Probably like to think we’re irreplaceable snowflakes. But we’re not. > people who do better than average should not be held down Ah yes that old chestnut, that unions mandate No Employee May Achieve Above Average

steele 4y ago

Employees are often investors too

csomar 4y ago

There will be no guild or union. Guilds exists where the market has difficulty moving/outsourcing. If you have a mine in Alabama, you can't mine it from China. You are going to mine it with the most powerful group of the closest community (that happens to be the "union" of mining). In tech, a union/guild is massive hamper on efficiency and control. Tech will quickly be outsourced to other places. It has become easier and more possible to outsource to other countries now (English is becoming more common, and education has improved in third-world countries). This will accelerate that.

trgn 4y ago

Wrt your guild-proposal specifically, one concrete outcome I'd like to see is accreditation, something similar like certification exams administered by society of actuarians. High bar standardized exam on fundamentals of CompSci, which waives every whiteboarding/leetcode interview. It sort of exists today, if you have a CompSci degree from reputable college, but this way people can get the certificate without the formal education, just pass the exam. It's ok if it's difficult.