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NK isn’t itching to invade SK. They would get rolled and they know it.

by fauxpause_ 4y ago

photonbeam 4y ago
But it would be very, um, convenient for China if SK was distracted by NK. So it might be engineered
- fauxpause_ 4y ago
  Im not sure geopolitical experts would agree with this pondering
  - AYBABTME 4y ago
    So what's your take?
    - fauxpause_ 4y ago
      https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Chinas-Three-Roads-to-Controlling-Taiwan.pdf?x91208 https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Chinas-Three-... But more generally my take is that most people have no idea how these things function at a basic level.
      - AYBABTME 4y ago
        The document you shared, and that which they link to referring to SK, sort of comes to the conclusion that I stated: SK would probably not allow the US to use its bases. It's the least bad position for them. Aside from securing the peninsula, any support to the US would leave SK exposed to China encouraging NK to make trouble. And even if China doesn't, NK would be emboldened by the lack of focus from the US and Japan. If there's a large scale conflict, SK might be able to hold off and defeat NK, but this wouldn't be without massive pain. That might be less likely, but small scale skirmishes already happen and I would expect much larger ones to take place under the umbrella of a wider US/China conflict. And yet, SK also doesn't really have a choice but to follow the US in a wider conflict, because of mutual defense treaties. Breaking from those agreements would ruin the long term prospects of SK, unless China prevails in the long term. It strikes me as really not an easy position for them to be in. The SK population would hate losing capitalist US as an ally and becoming closer to communist China. And yet if the US doesn't look like it'll prevail over China, geopolitics pressure would almost require SK to break from their defense treaties with the US. Yeah, to me this strikes me as an area that is really overlooked. Any conflict between the US and China would involve Tokyo, and Seoul. But Tokyo isn't as exposed to hard power from China as Seoul is. And yet, Seoul is barely mentioned in those articles.
cmrdporcupine 4y ago
They have enough artillery pointed at Seoul to cause mass civilian casualties. It would be a humanitarian disaster on both sides of the border. Now, in a case where a (conventional) war broke out between NK and SK without China's involvement, that artillery would be carpet bombed to oblivion by US air superiority in a matter of hours/days. But if the US was tied up elsewhere, or China was providing support. Nightmare scenario.

NK isn’t itching to invade SK. They would get rolled and they know it.

photonbeam 4y ago

But it would be very, um, convenient for China if SK was distracted by NK. So it might be engineered

fauxpause_ 4y ago
Im not sure geopolitical experts would agree with this pondering
- AYBABTME 4y ago
  So what's your take?
  - fauxpause_ 4y ago
    https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Chinas-Three-Roads-to-Controlling-Taiwan.pdf?x91208 https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/03/Chinas-Three-... But more generally my take is that most people have no idea how these things function at a basic level.
    - AYBABTME 4y ago
      The document you shared, and that which they link to referring to SK, sort of comes to the conclusion that I stated: SK would probably not allow the US to use its bases. It's the least bad position for them. Aside from securing the peninsula, any support to the US would leave SK exposed to China encouraging NK to make trouble. And even if China doesn't, NK would be emboldened by the lack of focus from the US and Japan. If there's a large scale conflict, SK might be able to hold off and defeat NK, but this wouldn't be without massive pain. That might be less likely, but small scale skirmishes already happen and I would expect much larger ones to take place under the umbrella of a wider US/China conflict. And yet, SK also doesn't really have a choice but to follow the US in a wider conflict, because of mutual defense treaties. Breaking from those agreements would ruin the long term prospects of SK, unless China prevails in the long term. It strikes me as really not an easy position for them to be in. The SK population would hate losing capitalist US as an ally and becoming closer to communist China. And yet if the US doesn't look like it'll prevail over China, geopolitics pressure would almost require SK to break from their defense treaties with the US. Yeah, to me this strikes me as an area that is really overlooked. Any conflict between the US and China would involve Tokyo, and Seoul. But Tokyo isn't as exposed to hard power from China as Seoul is. And yet, Seoul is barely mentioned in those articles.

cmrdporcupine 4y ago

They have enough artillery pointed at Seoul to cause mass civilian casualties. It would be a humanitarian disaster on both sides of the border. Now, in a case where a (conventional) war broke out between NK and SK without China's involvement, that artillery would be carpet bombed to oblivion by US air superiority in a matter of hours/days. But if the US was tied up elsewhere, or China was providing support. Nightmare scenario.