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Interesting - I’ve never thought about it this way. My only idea so far is to accummulate as much as I can and not get into long term debt. If I lost my job t

Interesting - I’ve never thought about it this way. My only idea so far is to accummulate as much as I can and not get into long term debt. If I lost my job today, I estimate I could live ok without a job for about 2 years in my worst forecast inflation (in UK terms, something like 15%) It seems there is plenty of well paid work though (again UK reality). Are there any known ways to counter attack an artificially induced recession? Join a union and fight, perhaps?

jarsin 4y ago
> Are there any known ways to counter attack an artificially induced recession? You can hedge for recessions. If you think the central banks are blowing stuff up and the economy is going to go into a recession putting capital into government bonds like TLT is a flight to safety trade. The reasoning is if a recession comes then the central banks will have to lower rates and money will come pouring in from risky investments and from savings accounts. I think all recessions are artificially induced since the creation of the fed.
- shrimpx 4y ago
  Money will come pouring into bonds? Trying to understand the reasoning for buying bonds.
  - jarsin 4y ago
    government bonds trade opposite interest rates. Interest rates down TLT up. Interest rates down cash needs more yield comes running to tlt. A lot of data out there that stocks crash after the pivot meaning they see the pivot as a recession and go racing into safety. Doesn't all happen in a straight easy line though. Headline from decemeber and I checked tlt and its near top of etf inflows ytd. TLT saw its second-largest inflow ever, with a gain of $1.5 billion, Bloomberg reported.
    - shrimpx 4y ago
      Thanks! TLT is only yielding 2.7% is that considered good in 6% inflation? I guess people bet inflation will go back to 2%?
      - jarsin 4y ago
        Yes a recession should kill inflation as many lose jobs and can't spend. Thus the reason the FED is trying to force a recession.
- pas 4y ago
  covid caused one without central banks 2008 was probably the Fed waiting too long to decrease rates (because of the meme that housing was a bubble, and failing to notice the spillover from super high price areas, due to that the housing stock is missing millions of units)
dukeyukey 4y ago
> It seems there is plenty of well paid work though I've been wondering this. I've seen lots of chatter about a retreating job market in the US, but here in London I'm still getting daily recruiter emails and LinkedIn requests. I could be wrong, but it doesn't feel like it's slowed down much here.

jarsin 4y ago

> Are there any known ways to counter attack an artificially induced recession? You can hedge for recessions. If you think the central banks are blowing stuff up and the economy is going to go into a recession putting capital into government bonds like TLT is a flight to safety trade. The reasoning is if a recession comes then the central banks will have to lower rates and money will come pouring in from risky investments and from savings accounts. I think all recessions are artificially induced since the creation of the fed.

shrimpx 4y ago
Money will come pouring into bonds? Trying to understand the reasoning for buying bonds.
- jarsin 4y ago
  government bonds trade opposite interest rates. Interest rates down TLT up. Interest rates down cash needs more yield comes running to tlt. A lot of data out there that stocks crash after the pivot meaning they see the pivot as a recession and go racing into safety. Doesn't all happen in a straight easy line though. Headline from decemeber and I checked tlt and its near top of etf inflows ytd. TLT saw its second-largest inflow ever, with a gain of $1.5 billion, Bloomberg reported.
  - shrimpx 4y ago
    Thanks! TLT is only yielding 2.7% is that considered good in 6% inflation? I guess people bet inflation will go back to 2%?
    - jarsin 4y ago
      Yes a recession should kill inflation as many lose jobs and can't spend. Thus the reason the FED is trying to force a recession.
pas 4y ago
covid caused one without central banks 2008 was probably the Fed waiting too long to decrease rates (because of the meme that housing was a bubble, and failing to notice the spillover from super high price areas, due to that the housing stock is missing millions of units)

dukeyukey 4y ago

> It seems there is plenty of well paid work though I've been wondering this. I've seen lots of chatter about a retreating job market in the US, but here in London I'm still getting daily recruiter emails and LinkedIn requests. I could be wrong, but it doesn't feel like it's slowed down much here.