4 ms·

> Cryptocurrency is rightfully many things: a cutting edge payment network, an enormous boon to financial privacy, a way to enable entirely new types of organiz

> Cryptocurrency is rightfully many things: a cutting edge payment network, an enormous boon to financial privacy, a way to enable entirely new types of organizations and funding models in the business world, a source of rapid developments to and applications of fascinating and obscure cryptographic concepts (e.g. zero-knowledge proofs), a hedge against systemic FIAT and some geopolitical risks, a driver of needed improvements in FIAT financial infrastructure (just like Google Fi was a driver of needed improvements in consumer internet infrastructure), I could go on and on... Legitimate question for you because this has been a remarkably civil dialog considering this is such a flash point on HN (I appreciate that): If it really is all of these things, where is the user adoption? Every six months or so I undertake the following exercise: 1) Get the 10 most active chains (variety of sources for this). Always includes bitcoin, eth, a bunch of l2s/sidechains/etc. 2) Visit their respective block explorers. 3) To the extent the data is available, capture daily and monthly metrics for the following: number of total transactions, used unique addresses, and (ideally) unique TX/RX transaction pairs. 4) Add them all up (rounded up). 5) Assume each address is a distinct user (they aren't). 6) Assume each address on each chain is a distinct user (they aren't). Every time I undergo this exercise I come to the same conclusion: based on actual network stats the number of blockchain users is incredibly low - even when strongly favoring crypto with the methodology above the DAU/MAU metrics are at best in the low 10s of millions. Even when you take the all time high metrics with the methodology above it's still well under 100 million. Considering there are an estimated > 5 billion internet users (crypto TAM) ATH numbers represent approximately 2% adoption, and I'd argue if you used a methodology that could resemble legitimate DAU/MAU stats you see from Meta, etc real adoption is probably 10-50% of that. I talked about my crypto journey - I looked at the technology over the past five-ten years and agreed with you. I was convinced it was the latest emerging technology that would provide a platform for the things you speak of and more. Then I started realizing no one I knew outside of the crypto-sphere actually used it for anything other than trading on CEXs. That's when I started performing this crude study and realized crypto/blockchain is completely irrelevant. The entire space could disappear tomorrow and barely anyone would notice. You seem to be much more capable of looking at things more holistically than I do/can. Historically, prior platforms/technologies from everything to the PC, the web, social media, smartphones, etc, etc easily hit 1 billion users inside of ten years. Generally speaking I feel like people are able to embrace things that are actually useful and benefit their lives. Crypto has been around for 14 years, has the benefit of leveraging all of these platforms, and still has abysmal user adoption. Why?

anonym29 4y ago
As I said, I see cryptocurrency as a very complex technology that requires a bordering-on-academic understanding of privacy, autonomy, sovereignty, macroeconomics, the shortcomings of FIAT currency, centralized banking, the federal reserve, fractional reserve banking, asymmetric cryptography, computer security, and a litany of other topics to fully appreciate and realize the benefits offered by Bitcoin, Monero, Ethereum, etc. I understand it probably comes off a little misanthropic, but as I also said, I suspect (many? most? majority? plurality?) of the people involved in crypto really don't even care about any of that, let alone understand it. The unstated corollary to this is that I would presume the people who aren't involved in crypto, on average, understand and appreciate all of these things even less. I understand that a lot of those 5 billion users weren't born with the privileges I was - I basically rolled all d20's for my stats by being born into one of the wealthiest and highest income countries in the world to a pair of responsible middle class parents and getting both the genes and parenting that I got, in an economic environment where I got to be exposed to having a home computers from the age of about 4, got lucky enough to be born into the highest income county of my state with a fantastic charter school that offered me a better early education than I deserved, all through no virtue of my own, and I think that opened life path doors for me that simply aren't open to an awful lot of people. Even after all of that, to have the personality type that allows one to be extremely interested in what some would call "esoteric" topics like cryptography, monetary sovereignty, etc, as opposed to someone who just listens to whatever the popular music is, watches whatever the popular TV show is, and is glued to tiktok or Instagram 24/7 is far from guaranteed. I think to be deeply interested in cryptocurrency for what I subjectively call "the right reasons" is in many ways to be an exception to the norm, both economically and culturally, compared to the user base of "all internet users". In their defense, I wouldn't recognize any of the top players of the MLB, NBA, NHL, whatever the American football one is, whatever the big European football one is, any of the kardashians, virtually any actor or actress, or musicians, or other cultural figures if I was standing next to them in line at Microcenter - I think it's mostly a question of different interests being held by different people, and "the technical, economic, political, and philosophical aspects of electronic peer-to-peer distributed ledgers" is probably just not a very popular interest. Again, sorry if any of that comes off as misanthropic, that's not my intention - I am trying to be completely civil.

anonym29 4y ago

As I said, I see cryptocurrency as a very complex technology that requires a bordering-on-academic understanding of privacy, autonomy, sovereignty, macroeconomics, the shortcomings of FIAT currency, centralized banking, the federal reserve, fractional reserve banking, asymmetric cryptography, computer security, and a litany of other topics to fully appreciate and realize the benefits offered by Bitcoin, Monero, Ethereum, etc. I understand it probably comes off a little misanthropic, but as I also said, I suspect (many? most? majority? plurality?) of the people involved in crypto really don't even care about any of that, let alone understand it. The unstated corollary to this is that I would presume the people who aren't involved in crypto, on average, understand and appreciate all of these things even less. I understand that a lot of those 5 billion users weren't born with the privileges I was - I basically rolled all d20's for my stats by being born into one of the wealthiest and highest income countries in the world to a pair of responsible middle class parents and getting both the genes and parenting that I got, in an economic environment where I got to be exposed to having a home computers from the age of about 4, got lucky enough to be born into the highest income county of my state with a fantastic charter school that offered me a better early education than I deserved, all through no virtue of my own, and I think that opened life path doors for me that simply aren't open to an awful lot of people. Even after all of that, to have the personality type that allows one to be extremely interested in what some would call "esoteric" topics like cryptography, monetary sovereignty, etc, as opposed to someone who just listens to whatever the popular music is, watches whatever the popular TV show is, and is glued to tiktok or Instagram 24/7 is far from guaranteed. I think to be deeply interested in cryptocurrency for what I subjectively call "the right reasons" is in many ways to be an exception to the norm, both economically and culturally, compared to the user base of "all internet users". In their defense, I wouldn't recognize any of the top players of the MLB, NBA, NHL, whatever the American football one is, whatever the big European football one is, any of the kardashians, virtually any actor or actress, or musicians, or other cultural figures if I was standing next to them in line at Microcenter - I think it's mostly a question of different interests being held by different people, and "the technical, economic, political, and philosophical aspects of electronic peer-to-peer distributed ledgers" is probably just not a very popular interest. Again, sorry if any of that comes off as misanthropic, that's not my intention - I am trying to be completely civil.