2 ms·
IMO? Overnight term rates should have been zero from 2020 to about July of 2021, then allowed to rise by 0.25 per month to perhaps about 3.5%. Long-term rates s
by mitthrowaway2 4y ago
IMO? Overnight term rates should have been zero from 2020 to about July of 2021, then allowed to rise by 0.25 per month to perhaps about 3.5%. Long-term rates should have been left to float with the market, pricing in the expected risk of inflation. Not that my opinion matters, since I wasn't in charge.
- wbl 4y agoThat still leads to losses on long term treasuries. That's what it means to raise rates.
- mitthrowaway2 4y agoYes, of course it does. But there are losses, and then there are losses. 10-year yields going from 1.56% in 2021 to 4% in 2023 is equivalent to a price drop of 17% (given maturity in 2031). If 10-year yields had only been, say, 3% in 2021 before rising to 4%, the bond price drop would have been closer to 7%.