In my experience, the estimate is almost never about an actual, literal target anyone should put on a calendar. It is more of a way for management to slowly dev

In my experience, the estimate is almost never about an actual, literal target anyone should put on a calendar. It is more of a way for management to slowly develop an understanding of how much cost or anxiety is associated with a thing. The more often management samples you for estimates, the more likely they will start to grasp reality, even if you are wildly-off in most cases. It is traditional for developers to look at this like a binary thing where they're being expected to provide a deterministic outcome at an arbitrary future date. Unless your management is actually incompetent/abusive, they understand how the game works and aren't actually looking for this kind of magic. Once you learn that missing targets is totally fine & acceptable virtually everywhere, life improves dramatically. Another way to look at this: If your work is so easy to predict that you can set detailed targets 12+ months out and deterministically hit them, how much value are you able to provide to your customers?