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The response to "there are too many unknowns to provide any sort of estimate" shouldn't be exactly "well, we need estimates." But "okay, just do whatever" is al

The response to "there are too many unknowns to provide any sort of estimate" shouldn't be exactly "well, we need estimates." But "okay, just do whatever" is also not a working outcome. Software is weird, yes. But other disciplines are able to provide useful planning information. Why are we unable to do that?

lazide 4y ago
Most other disciplines have this exact same problem. Construction contractors for instance, are notorious for it. The difference is, the law says if a contractor signs a contract to do something at x price, they HAVE to do so or suffer consequences. So contractors go broke/bankrupt, lose their licenses, or figure out how to bid correctly enough they can either weasel out of it if it goes sideways or they have enough wiggle room to deal with the inevitable problems. Software Engineering Consultants have the same situation. But directly employed software engineers are in a different position of course. One thing that typically makes this worse, is the implicit assumption that planning/quoting/estimating is ‘free’ work, and since it CAN make things easier to deliver, therefore we should do more and more of it as, since it’s free, it will solve the problem no?
- UncleMeat 4y ago
  Other disciplines have problems with slippage, but none of my friends who are in physical engineering fields insist that they shouldn't even have to provide estimates in the first place.
  - lazide 4y ago
    Of course not, their protected place comes with conditions like giving estimates (and being held to them). And their disciplines involve massive capital outlays which can’t be refactored in a cost effective way, or at all really. Not defending the ‘no estimate ever’ approach, it doesn’t work. They are different though.
jiggawatts 4y ago
Really, they can, can they? Even the bespoke, one-off projects with unknown unknowns? Tell me, how accurate were the estimates for the launch date of JWST? I’ll wait here while you look up how many times and how many years that “slipped”. I bet some dumbass NASA manager asked the team to schedule the launch date back in the 1990s.

lazide 4y ago

Most other disciplines have this exact same problem. Construction contractors for instance, are notorious for it. The difference is, the law says if a contractor signs a contract to do something at x price, they HAVE to do so or suffer consequences. So contractors go broke/bankrupt, lose their licenses, or figure out how to bid correctly enough they can either weasel out of it if it goes sideways or they have enough wiggle room to deal with the inevitable problems. Software Engineering Consultants have the same situation. But directly employed software engineers are in a different position of course. One thing that typically makes this worse, is the implicit assumption that planning/quoting/estimating is ‘free’ work, and since it CAN make things easier to deliver, therefore we should do more and more of it as, since it’s free, it will solve the problem no?

UncleMeat 4y ago
Other disciplines have problems with slippage, but none of my friends who are in physical engineering fields insist that they shouldn't even have to provide estimates in the first place.
- lazide 4y ago
  Of course not, their protected place comes with conditions like giving estimates (and being held to them). And their disciplines involve massive capital outlays which can’t be refactored in a cost effective way, or at all really. Not defending the ‘no estimate ever’ approach, it doesn’t work. They are different though.

jiggawatts 4y ago

Really, they can, can they? Even the bespoke, one-off projects with unknown unknowns? Tell me, how accurate were the estimates for the launch date of JWST? I’ll wait here while you look up how many times and how many years that “slipped”. I bet some dumbass NASA manager asked the team to schedule the launch date back in the 1990s.