You’re implicitly trying to make a prediction on where the technology is going based on present trends, something that the industry has never been good at. Rem

You’re implicitly trying to make a prediction on where the technology is going based on present trends, something that the industry has never been good at. Remember how 3D printing was supposed to be ubiquitous by now? Or how self-driving cars would lead to an economic apocalypse because of how reliant the economy is on truckers? Remember all the predictions of bitcoin going to $100k? Remember how an AI startup called “The Grid” was making news for their AI website builder back in 2016 (edit: 2014)? Don’t even get me started on VR and mixed reality. Remember Magic Leap? My takeaway from all this, other than that futurists are hucksters, is that progress is actually quite slow, and relies on sudden, unpredictable breakthroughs. I mean, without the iPhone, we arguably wouldn’t have smartphone apps, the death of Flash, or responsive websites. Arguably, without this single pivotal product, tech as we know it would be a very different place. I know it’s a stretch to some to call the iPhone a breakthrough, but it’s impact has been pretty huge. The catch is knowing when something is a real breakthrough, and when it isn’t. I genuinely thought that the Oculus was at the time, and yet here we are, years later, and it seems like nothing has changed, aside from incremental improvements in VR display technology and a very niche VR gaming community. GPT-4 is clearly impressive from a technical standpoint, useful even, but where does it really go from here? Does the technology take off, or does it plateau in its present state? Is it VR and 3D printers all over again?