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That would be 100% dependent on what the Taiwanese decide to do. If they decide to give in and absorb into the mainland, it could be over in a few days. If they
by seventytwo 4y ago
That would be 100% dependent on what the Taiwanese decide to do. If they decide to give in and absorb into the mainland, it could be over in a few days. If they decide to fight, it would be a second Ukraine.
- cmrdporcupine 4y agoIt doesn't matter if the Taiwanese were to fold and surrender military suddenly. It would still be a huge a catastrophe. The west would be forced to respond in ways that would be catastrophic for the world economy in a way that the Ukraine crisis doesn't even approach. There's no way normal trade relations could continue as they have. And the trading relationship between the west and China is the most important in the world. There'd be famine, hyperinflation, riots, and chaos all over the place. Even if an immediate war ended quickly, the following instability would merely pave the way for new ones. The best thing that can happen for the world situation is for the Chinese domestic political tone to step away from the brink with all the imperialist sabre rattling, and for the US to do the same. The second best thing is that elites in the west plan now to disentangle economic dependencies enough that if such a thing were to happen it would have less impact. There seem to be some moves on that front, but doesn't seem realistic overall.
- spaceman_2020 4y agoAre there any pro-China factions in Taiwan? If yes, how much influence do they have?
- inawarminister 4y agoKMT is broadly poised to win multiple cities this year and they're pro One China, though not communism necessarily. Also Taiwanese military has some pro-One China elements in it last I've heard.