4 ms·

even from a purely material perspective, the US would lose little - China will be more than happy to sell us chips from its conquered TSMC labs just like they a

even from a purely material perspective, the US would lose little - China will be more than happy to sell us chips from its conquered TSMC labs just like they are happy to sell us everything else (and chips are not a singular strategic issue - we already need Chinese rare earth minerals among many other things, not just cheap crap at Walmart) the only real losers are the Taiwanese who now don't own those factories anymore (but are otherwise fine - they will be on the first planes out)...and American soldiers who are dead or maimed ...and still, no one seems willing to answer if they or their kids should be among the dead/maimed rich Americans with opportunities are far too comfortable about asking poor/disadvantaged Americans (i.e almost everyone who joins the armed forces) to die for oil, phones etc bring back the draft, get kids from Stanford and MIT CS potentially on the front line and you will see a 180 change in almost all US policy

FpUser 4y ago
>"China will be more than happy to sell us chips from its conquered TSMC labs" I've heard that in case of invasion TSMC labs would be rendered useless. Suppliers like ASML will stop support and selling new goodies as well. China has only one real option: keep improving what they already have and hope to match competitors. The way things going they have a chance.
CptFribble 4y ago
> China will be more than happy to sell us chips this is a narrow view of the possible outcomes. a huge amount of our military and intelligence capabilities, as well as much of our advanced manufacturing (i.e. the things that make us relevant on the world stage), completely depend on TSMC's chips. China controlling TSMC could remove the USA from the world stage in a single decade by simply refusing to sell us the best (or any) chips. Similarly, military and intelligence sources would likely volunteer to stop using TSMC chips immediately since Chinese control could mean those chips are compromised through-and-through. Basically, Chinese control of Taiwan represents an existential threat to US global power and the US would likely go to the mat over it. Paradoxically though, I think this fact also reduces the likelihood of open conflict over Taiwan, because unlike Putin, Xi does not appear to let his ego drive bad decisions. The most likely outcome is a new Cold War, with smaller conflicts around the chip industry in Taiwan, most prominently seen at the moment with China's continued expansion into the South China Sea. They cannot risk open conflict over TSMC directly, but they can try to flex their growing naval power over the shipping lanes. If there will be a conflict over Taiwan, it will likely not happen until the 3nm fab in Arizona is operational in 2026 (planned). We'll likely see a huge shift in the dynamic once we have US chip supply lines secured inside our borders. The paradox will be resolved and Taiwan will be vulnerable to invasion since the US won't need to risk lives and material defending it's chip supply chain, but China will still want to control advanced chips at the level of TSMC's production since while they have made huge strides to catch up over the last several decades, they are still struggling to match TSMCs level of expertise (as we all are).
Animats 4y ago
Taiwan's industrial capacity will not survive a war. Almost all of Taiwan's development is within 15km of the west coast, facing China. Unlike the approach to Kyiv in Ukraine, there's no depth. Look at a map. The industrial areas of Ukraine near the Russian border are gone. Mariupol is in ruins.
enjoy-your-stay 4y ago
>...and still, no one seems willing to answer if they or their kids should be among the dead/maimed Why don't you instead ask that of the Chinese? How many of them are willing to go to the bottom of the ocean in order to complete a pointless and petty war? There's a lot of hostile water between the mainland and the sovereign nation of Taiwan that they'll have to cross, many would die. And for what? The USA has one of the largest and most ready navies in the world, if it came to a fight, China - which has very little naval experience in war as far as I can remember - might find itself massively outclassed between the US and possibly Japan. What then happens in a war of attrition where China can't win, but won't back down? The allies will basically blockade China until it chokes to death on it's own hubris, and industrial production will return to the US and Europe.
- azinman2 4y ago
  They have a large population and are constantly stroking nationalism. In the US the current younger generation has an anti-US mindset (not understanding really the alternatives). There's (many) reasons the US military is having trouble recruiting young talent.

FpUser 4y ago

>"China will be more than happy to sell us chips from its conquered TSMC labs" I've heard that in case of invasion TSMC labs would be rendered useless. Suppliers like ASML will stop support and selling new goodies as well. China has only one real option: keep improving what they already have and hope to match competitors. The way things going they have a chance.

CptFribble 4y ago

> China will be more than happy to sell us chips this is a narrow view of the possible outcomes. a huge amount of our military and intelligence capabilities, as well as much of our advanced manufacturing (i.e. the things that make us relevant on the world stage), completely depend on TSMC's chips. China controlling TSMC could remove the USA from the world stage in a single decade by simply refusing to sell us the best (or any) chips. Similarly, military and intelligence sources would likely volunteer to stop using TSMC chips immediately since Chinese control could mean those chips are compromised through-and-through. Basically, Chinese control of Taiwan represents an existential threat to US global power and the US would likely go to the mat over it. Paradoxically though, I think this fact also reduces the likelihood of open conflict over Taiwan, because unlike Putin, Xi does not appear to let his ego drive bad decisions. The most likely outcome is a new Cold War, with smaller conflicts around the chip industry in Taiwan, most prominently seen at the moment with China's continued expansion into the South China Sea. They cannot risk open conflict over TSMC directly, but they can try to flex their growing naval power over the shipping lanes. If there will be a conflict over Taiwan, it will likely not happen until the 3nm fab in Arizona is operational in 2026 (planned). We'll likely see a huge shift in the dynamic once we have US chip supply lines secured inside our borders. The paradox will be resolved and Taiwan will be vulnerable to invasion since the US won't need to risk lives and material defending it's chip supply chain, but China will still want to control advanced chips at the level of TSMC's production since while they have made huge strides to catch up over the last several decades, they are still struggling to match TSMCs level of expertise (as we all are).

Animats 4y ago

Taiwan's industrial capacity will not survive a war. Almost all of Taiwan's development is within 15km of the west coast, facing China. Unlike the approach to Kyiv in Ukraine, there's no depth. Look at a map. The industrial areas of Ukraine near the Russian border are gone. Mariupol is in ruins.

enjoy-your-stay 4y ago

>...and still, no one seems willing to answer if they or their kids should be among the dead/maimed Why don't you instead ask that of the Chinese? How many of them are willing to go to the bottom of the ocean in order to complete a pointless and petty war? There's a lot of hostile water between the mainland and the sovereign nation of Taiwan that they'll have to cross, many would die. And for what? The USA has one of the largest and most ready navies in the world, if it came to a fight, China - which has very little naval experience in war as far as I can remember - might find itself massively outclassed between the US and possibly Japan. What then happens in a war of attrition where China can't win, but won't back down? The allies will basically blockade China until it chokes to death on it's own hubris, and industrial production will return to the US and Europe.

azinman2 4y ago
They have a large population and are constantly stroking nationalism. In the US the current younger generation has an anti-US mindset (not understanding really the alternatives). There's (many) reasons the US military is having trouble recruiting young talent.