I'd say many trades won't be replaced by AI anytime soon. Electrician, plumber, carpenter, interior decorator, gardener, etc... the environments the work takes

I'd say many trades won't be replaced by AI anytime soon. Electrician, plumber, carpenter, interior decorator, gardener, etc... the environments the work takes place in is just too difficult to automate right now. They'll eventually become obsolete in a century or so (maybe a few decades based on how fast things move?), but it won't be prompts and computer learning that replace them. It'll be significant advances in robotics and general purpose AI (scenario 1), or a major rethink of how the affected systems are structured (scenario 2).