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Everyone seems to think their particular niche is going to be the last to be commoditised. Yes, you've saved some time marketing your product. But your product

by thom 4y ago

Everyone seems to think their particular niche is going to be the last to be commoditised. Yes, you've saved some time marketing your product. But your product is just going to get replaced by equally lazy people who type "write a business simulation to teach my students leadership" into ChatGPT. And then those people are going to get replaced by students not going to business school and just asking ChatGPT for a business curriculum directly. Except those people aren't going to get jobs because all the actual businesses are using ChatGPT instead of employees. Except those businesses' products also just got commoditised so they can't pay their ChatGPT bill. ChatGPT is not a tool with which you can build a bigger moat. Huge amounts of money are going to be made in the short term, but in the long term, I think your work being amenable to aid or replacement by LLMs is an indication you should be looking for higher ground, even if it's just to survive some plausible AI Winter.

13years 4y ago
I agree, most are missing this aspect. If AI progresses as the proponents assume, continually exponential, then this is different than all prior disruptions. It is accelerating technological evolution. Meaning there is no island of stability on the other side. There is no adaption to change and then we move along for a while. It is continuous. What makes this disruption different than all others is AI is not a narrow disruption. It is a disruption for everything because at its core it is a machine for the replication of skill and technology. A concept that has never existed prior with any other technological disruption. I've described this somewhat as the shrinking innovation, disruption and adaption cycles that leave us completely unable to keep up. "Climbing the skill ladder is going to look more like running on a treadmill at the gym. No matter how fast you run, you aren’t moving, AI is still right behind you learning everything that you can do." https://dakara.substack.com/p/ai-and-the-end-to-all-things https://dakara.substack.com/p/ai-and-the-end-to-all-things
voiper1 4y ago
If you use ChatGPT as prescriptive, that it tells you what to do, then you're only as good as what you put in and how good ChatGPT is. But if you use it as a coach/consultant/pair-programmer/R&D exploration/ brainstorming session, then you have instant access to an "expert" in any field. That's something that can supercharge the productive output of any worker. And/or lead to dismissal of most of the team...

by thom 4y ago

13years 4y ago

I agree, most are missing this aspect. If AI progresses as the proponents assume, continually exponential, then this is different than all prior disruptions. It is accelerating technological evolution. Meaning there is no island of stability on the other side. There is no adaption to change and then we move along for a while. It is continuous. What makes this disruption different than all others is AI is not a narrow disruption. It is a disruption for everything because at its core it is a machine for the replication of skill and technology. A concept that has never existed prior with any other technological disruption. I've described this somewhat as the shrinking innovation, disruption and adaption cycles that leave us completely unable to keep up. "Climbing the skill ladder is going to look more like running on a treadmill at the gym. No matter how fast you run, you aren’t moving, AI is still right behind you learning everything that you can do." https://dakara.substack.com/p/ai-and-the-end-to-all-things https://dakara.substack.com/p/ai-and-the-end-to-all-things

voiper1 4y ago

If you use ChatGPT as prescriptive, that it tells you what to do, then you're only as good as what you put in and how good ChatGPT is. But if you use it as a coach/consultant/pair-programmer/R&D exploration/ brainstorming session, then you have instant access to an "expert" in any field. That's something that can supercharge the productive output of any worker. And/or lead to dismissal of most of the team...