5 ms·

Do we know if that's the view of the average Ukrainian?

kspacewalk2 4y ago
Indeed we do[0]. [0] https://www.iri.org/resources/iri-ukraine-poll-shows-strong-confidence-in-president-zelensky-a-surge-in-support-for-nato-membership-russia-should-pay-for-reconstruction/ https://www.iri.org/resources/iri-ukraine-poll-shows-strong-...
- xtian 4y ago
  That organization is funded by the US government. https://www.iri.org/news/national-endowment-for-democracy-ned-ndi-iri-cipe-and-solidarity-center-welcome-increased-funding-from-congress/ https://www.iri.org/news/national-endowment-for-democracy-ne...
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - kspacewalk2 4y ago
    It seems like you're implying some sort of relevance to this, without stating it.
    - xtian 4y ago
      You don’t think it’s relevant that the source is the primary funder and arms provider of one side of this conflict?
      - kspacewalk2 4y ago
        I think all Ukrainians are very thankful that the US for helping them in their hour of greatest need, to defeat a genocidal invader. Wanna know what they think of China? The answer is, they don't think of China. This is because, while China can afford the big boy pants and has probably already purchased them, they haven't put them on yet.
        deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
- calderknight 4y ago
  Thanks for the link, but I didn't see any answer that relates directly to the question we are discussing. We can look at the general support for the Ukrainian establishment instead. According to that survey, The polling shows that in February 2023 31% strongly approve 40% somewhat approve 7% somewhat disapprove 4% strongly disapprove 18% difficult to answer/no answer of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine. This is a drop from 48% strongly approving in April 2022. The polling also shows that the percent that strongly approve of the activities of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky have dropped from 74% in April 2022 to 58% in February 2023. And support of The Parliament of Ukraine is low, with only 9% strongly approving. So, I don't think that there's strong enough support of The Ukrainian establishment to conclude that the population agrees with their stance that "the war will end when the Ukraine wins the war" (not that I'm sure that is the Ukrainian establishment's stance).
  - kspacewalk2 4y ago
    >>>If you talk to a Ukrainian, they will tell you that the war will end when they win the war. I.E. they won’t stop fighting until the Russians are gone. >> Do we know if that's the view of the average Ukrainian? Unless I misunderstood the question being discussed, it is answered precisely and directly. "Do you believe that Ukraine will win the war?": 82% yes, 15% likely yes "What will be the territorial boundaries of Ukraine as a result of this war?" 74% internationally recognized borders, 8% w/ Donbas but w/o Crimea, 9% status quo ante bellum.
    - calderknight 4y ago
      The thing in question is a stance on military policy, not a probability estimate. You can't go from probability estimate ("I think it is most likely that we will have the same borders as before the invasion") to policy stance ("I will not accept peace until we have the same borders as before the invasion").
      - kspacewalk2 4y ago
        The policy stance is directly implied by the probability estimate. This is certainly true if you accept my anecdata of ~6-8 of my relatives from the south of Ukraine and Kyiv who are, to a person, adamant about the vital necessity of winning the war to ensure their kids won't have to fight another one 20 years from now. There's absolutely no dithering in Ukraine about what the goal is: 1991 borders and one or both of EU and NATO memberships, with the NATO membership very likely being first. These people didn't suffer for 13 months to accept some half-ass appeasement of a ceasefire to give Putin some breathing room to regroup.

Indeed we do[0]. [0] https://www.iri.org/resources/iri-ukraine-poll-shows-strong-confidence-in-president-zelensky-a-surge-in-support-for-nato-membership-russia-should-pay-for-reconstruction/ https://www.iri.org/resources/iri-ukraine-poll-shows-strong-...

xtian 4y ago
That organization is funded by the US government. https://www.iri.org/news/national-endowment-for-democracy-ned-ndi-iri-cipe-and-solidarity-center-welcome-increased-funding-from-congress/ https://www.iri.org/news/national-endowment-for-democracy-ne...
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- kspacewalk2 4y ago
  It seems like you're implying some sort of relevance to this, without stating it.
  - xtian 4y ago
    You don’t think it’s relevant that the source is the primary funder and arms provider of one side of this conflict?
    - kspacewalk2 4y ago
      I think all Ukrainians are very thankful that the US for helping them in their hour of greatest need, to defeat a genocidal invader. Wanna know what they think of China? The answer is, they don't think of China. This is because, while China can afford the big boy pants and has probably already purchased them, they haven't put them on yet.
      - deleted 4y ago
        [deleted]
calderknight 4y ago
Thanks for the link, but I didn't see any answer that relates directly to the question we are discussing. We can look at the general support for the Ukrainian establishment instead. According to that survey, The polling shows that in February 2023 31% strongly approve 40% somewhat approve 7% somewhat disapprove 4% strongly disapprove 18% difficult to answer/no answer of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine. This is a drop from 48% strongly approving in April 2022. The polling also shows that the percent that strongly approve of the activities of President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky have dropped from 74% in April 2022 to 58% in February 2023. And support of The Parliament of Ukraine is low, with only 9% strongly approving. So, I don't think that there's strong enough support of The Ukrainian establishment to conclude that the population agrees with their stance that "the war will end when the Ukraine wins the war" (not that I'm sure that is the Ukrainian establishment's stance).
- kspacewalk2 4y ago
  >>>If you talk to a Ukrainian, they will tell you that the war will end when they win the war. I.E. they won’t stop fighting until the Russians are gone. >> Do we know if that's the view of the average Ukrainian? Unless I misunderstood the question being discussed, it is answered precisely and directly. "Do you believe that Ukraine will win the war?": 82% yes, 15% likely yes "What will be the territorial boundaries of Ukraine as a result of this war?" 74% internationally recognized borders, 8% w/ Donbas but w/o Crimea, 9% status quo ante bellum.
  - calderknight 4y ago
    The thing in question is a stance on military policy, not a probability estimate. You can't go from probability estimate ("I think it is most likely that we will have the same borders as before the invasion") to policy stance ("I will not accept peace until we have the same borders as before the invasion").
    - kspacewalk2 4y ago
      The policy stance is directly implied by the probability estimate. This is certainly true if you accept my anecdata of ~6-8 of my relatives from the south of Ukraine and Kyiv who are, to a person, adamant about the vital necessity of winning the war to ensure their kids won't have to fight another one 20 years from now. There's absolutely no dithering in Ukraine about what the goal is: 1991 borders and one or both of EU and NATO memberships, with the NATO membership very likely being first. These people didn't suffer for 13 months to accept some half-ass appeasement of a ceasefire to give Putin some breathing room to regroup.