4 ms·

AGI is not an "invention", it's a being. A being that is vastly superior to even the best humans at every imaginable task. The history of machinery is irrelevan

by p-e-w 4y ago

AGI is not an "invention", it's a being. A being that is vastly superior to even the best humans at every imaginable task. The history of machinery is irrelevant when it comes to predicting how such a being will affect human labor. Nobody is going to continue paying people to do something that AIs can do better, 1000 times faster, and for 1/1000th the price. That just isn't going to happen. Humans working (other than perhaps as a pastime, i.e. pretending to work) won't be a thing in the future.

LeoPanthera 4y ago
I respect your opinion, but I disagree with it. I see GPT as a tool. An adaptive, flexible tool, but a tool.
- sophiabits 4y ago
  As it exists today I’d agree with you that GPT is just a tool. I think without some architectural improvements it will likely always be a tool—predicting the next token probably accounts for some part of human intelligence, but I find it difficult to believe that’s /all/ our brain is doing. There’s presumably some ceiling to how good GPT can become without some new fundamental insight into what intelligence is. I don’t think AGI could be categorized as merely a tool. Even “just” the ability to run human-level intellect and reasoning at scale would be a game changer—humans are really expensive to produce and maintain compared to GPUs—and there’s no reason to believe real AGI would be limited to the capabilities of the human brain.
- p-e-w 4y ago
  Yes, GPT (more accurately, GPT-4) is a tool. But future AIs will be more than that. Obviously, the current generation of AIs hasn't made humans obsolete yet. But consider that 5 years ago, AIs couldn't pass elementary school reading tests, and today they perform in the top 10% of law students in the bar exam. Unless something unforeseen happens, superhuman performance is just a matter of time.
esalman 4y ago
Will AI grow food at scale enough to support billions of people?

by p-e-w 4y ago

LeoPanthera 4y ago

I respect your opinion, but I disagree with it. I see GPT as a tool. An adaptive, flexible tool, but a tool.

sophiabits 4y ago
As it exists today I’d agree with you that GPT is just a tool. I think without some architectural improvements it will likely always be a tool—predicting the next token probably accounts for some part of human intelligence, but I find it difficult to believe that’s /all/ our brain is doing. There’s presumably some ceiling to how good GPT can become without some new fundamental insight into what intelligence is. I don’t think AGI could be categorized as merely a tool. Even “just” the ability to run human-level intellect and reasoning at scale would be a game changer—humans are really expensive to produce and maintain compared to GPUs—and there’s no reason to believe real AGI would be limited to the capabilities of the human brain.
p-e-w 4y ago
Yes, GPT (more accurately, GPT-4) is a tool. But future AIs will be more than that. Obviously, the current generation of AIs hasn't made humans obsolete yet. But consider that 5 years ago, AIs couldn't pass elementary school reading tests, and today they perform in the top 10% of law students in the bar exam. Unless something unforeseen happens, superhuman performance is just a matter of time.

esalman 4y ago

Will AI grow food at scale enough to support billions of people?