4 ms·

I hope this isn't too informal for HN, but... commenting here to mark this momentous instant, where the software engineers were warned and dismissed it as hype.

by bbor 4y ago

I hope this isn't too informal for HN, but... commenting here to mark this momentous instant, where the software engineers were warned and dismissed it as hype. However, let's take a step back and consider a few basic arguments that this article makes - I suspect most here would only disagree with the very last. Firstly, the demand for quality software is far greater than the current supply. If there were suddenly twice the number of mid-level software engineers, there would still be more than enough work for them. Secondly, software engineering is a process that can be refined and created almost entirely without the interference of non-deterministic real-world systems like roads, weather, or courts. This makes it an ideal field for automation and AI to play a larger role. Thirdly, a sufficiently intelligent computer could exponentially increase its own efficacy in performing purely-digital tasks -- basically an [intelligence explosion](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/intelligence-explosion https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/intelligence-explosion) but much softer and much much more achievable (how smart is a mid-level SWE, really?). Finally, LLMs that get a ~100 on an IQ test are enough to start that cycle. Perhaps you're super duper convinced that the last point is wrong. Perhaps you have strongly-held convictions about explainability, symbolic reasoning, higher level thinking, etc. But if you really sit down and think, what are the chances you're wrong? What are the chances that we get another leap or two in the next 1-5 years like we just got with DL transformers? If you're feeling excited and anxious about the implications of this, you're not alone. I've found that it's a difficult topic to discuss with those close to me, especially if they're not familiar with the latest developments in AI. If you have thoughts on how to use our SWE experience to navigate this exciting but uncertain landscape while maintaining a sense of self-preservation and helping others as much as possible, I'd be interested in hearing your ideas.

anon7725 4y ago
> If you have thoughts on how to use our SWE experience to navigate this exciting but uncertain landscape while maintaining a sense of self-preservation and helping others as much as possible, I'd be interested in hearing your ideas. Sell magazine subscriptions door to door?
qsort 4y ago
The last point is neither right nor wrong, it's fanfiction. The second point is wrong. You can automatically synthesize code from a specification (and you could already do so before LLMs, arguably even better with SMT solvers), but who is going to write the specification in the first place, buddy? That's the problem that's never been solved, and it will never be solved because it can't be solved. It is not easier to write a specification in English than it is to write it in C++. It's like saying that math would become easier if we took away the burden of using mathematical notation. Not only it wouldn't get any easier, it would get significantly more difficult! Lies are dangerous, because if you say too many of them, you start believing your own. "AI is like a human you can talk to", they said. Now they act as though that's true, and they talk to the AI, without realizing it's the same faithful mechanical slave it has always been, perfectly capable of carrying out nonsensical instructions to their nonsensical results. And the instructions are necessarily nonsensical, because they insist on using an interface too wide, where saying something precise is all but impossible.
- cowthulhu 4y ago
  Writing a spec is a problem that can be broken down into sub-problems and so on. It’s not magic, and while the LLMs of today may do it poorly, there’s nothing special about the task that would prevent better models from doing a decent job. I’m sure if someone posted on here 5 years ago that they were building an AI that could at an image and tell you what’s funny about it, people on here would be foaming at the mouth to explain how impossible that task is, that only humans possess the subjective viewpoint and je-ne-sai-quois of human… and now here we are.
  - qsort 4y ago
    > Writing a spec is a problem that can be broken down into sub-problems and so on. Yes, a.k.a. programming. If you assume that you have a machine powerful enough to do that, then you have a machine powerful enough to do anything at all: you are assuming the thing you're trying to prove. There exists no universe where a machine that can do whatever you want by being instructed verbally isn't also replacing the one instructing it...
ilovepuppies 4y ago
I share much of your sentiment and find it surprising how difficult it’s been to discuss the matter and find developers willing to have a serious discussion about it. There are serious market forces at play here that will impact all of us. I don’t have time right now to write an adequate response, but will do so soon and appreciate reading a post like yours.
cowthulhu 4y ago
I definitely think a lot of people here are missing the forest for the trees. A lot of the arguments seem to boil down to “it cannot do this now, so people won’t be able to make it do so later”, which seems naive. Look at what Microsoft is investing in this tech - is anyone actually thinking that they won’t be able to figure out how to add structure to the output, or better train the models, integrate it better with stakeholder requirements, or whatever else? HN loves being contrarian, but in this case I think it’s more curmudgeon than contrarian.
- moregrist 4y ago
  The problem with this line of thinking is that it's essentially doom-scrolling. It's especially bad because ChatGPT came along during an industry down-cycle. An interesting thought experiment is: if hiring was like 2021, would your take be different? In terms of AI taking ALL THE JOBS... Maybe it will happen? Maybe it won't. But what action can we take from all this doom-scrolling? Other than "we should all be VERY CONCERNED." Which is just a way for us to stand around wringing our hands. My conclusion is much the same as always: I can't grow complacent. Which we've known for years. "The industry is changing." Of course it is. It's been changing for ~80 years. And if you go back to similar advances, you'll see similar arguments. Will this time be different? Maybe. But until it does, I think I'll continue to learn new skills (not just new languages/frameworks), refine my problem solving and troubleshooting, and above all, refine my people skills. But I think I'll avoid the doom-scrolling. Either AI is coming for ALL THE JOBS or it isn't, but even knowing that it is doesn't give me anything actionable to do about it.
  - cowthulhu 4y ago
    It’s definitely sort of scary to me, but I’m hoping that it’ll be like previous times we have automated stuff - we’ll develop more advanced jobs on top of the new tech. So I don’t mean to be doom and gloom!
hallqv 4y ago
Also posting here as a bookmark for the future. I'm pretty sure most SWE's are toast, I've been pair programming with gpt-4 for the last weeks and it is freakishly good compared to gpt-3. It's just a matter of continuing on current trajectory of progress and most SWE's will be completely obsolete within 5 years.

by bbor 4y ago

anon7725 4y ago

> If you have thoughts on how to use our SWE experience to navigate this exciting but uncertain landscape while maintaining a sense of self-preservation and helping others as much as possible, I'd be interested in hearing your ideas. Sell magazine subscriptions door to door?

qsort 4y ago

The last point is neither right nor wrong, it's fanfiction. The second point is wrong. You can automatically synthesize code from a specification (and you could already do so before LLMs, arguably even better with SMT solvers), but who is going to write the specification in the first place, buddy? That's the problem that's never been solved, and it will never be solved because it can't be solved. It is not easier to write a specification in English than it is to write it in C++. It's like saying that math would become easier if we took away the burden of using mathematical notation. Not only it wouldn't get any easier, it would get significantly more difficult! Lies are dangerous, because if you say too many of them, you start believing your own. "AI is like a human you can talk to", they said. Now they act as though that's true, and they talk to the AI, without realizing it's the same faithful mechanical slave it has always been, perfectly capable of carrying out nonsensical instructions to their nonsensical results. And the instructions are necessarily nonsensical, because they insist on using an interface too wide, where saying something precise is all but impossible.

cowthulhu 4y ago
Writing a spec is a problem that can be broken down into sub-problems and so on. It’s not magic, and while the LLMs of today may do it poorly, there’s nothing special about the task that would prevent better models from doing a decent job. I’m sure if someone posted on here 5 years ago that they were building an AI that could at an image and tell you what’s funny about it, people on here would be foaming at the mouth to explain how impossible that task is, that only humans possess the subjective viewpoint and je-ne-sai-quois of human… and now here we are.
- qsort 4y ago
  > Writing a spec is a problem that can be broken down into sub-problems and so on. Yes, a.k.a. programming. If you assume that you have a machine powerful enough to do that, then you have a machine powerful enough to do anything at all: you are assuming the thing you're trying to prove. There exists no universe where a machine that can do whatever you want by being instructed verbally isn't also replacing the one instructing it...

ilovepuppies 4y ago

I share much of your sentiment and find it surprising how difficult it’s been to discuss the matter and find developers willing to have a serious discussion about it. There are serious market forces at play here that will impact all of us. I don’t have time right now to write an adequate response, but will do so soon and appreciate reading a post like yours.

cowthulhu 4y ago

I definitely think a lot of people here are missing the forest for the trees. A lot of the arguments seem to boil down to “it cannot do this now, so people won’t be able to make it do so later”, which seems naive. Look at what Microsoft is investing in this tech - is anyone actually thinking that they won’t be able to figure out how to add structure to the output, or better train the models, integrate it better with stakeholder requirements, or whatever else? HN loves being contrarian, but in this case I think it’s more curmudgeon than contrarian.

moregrist 4y ago
The problem with this line of thinking is that it's essentially doom-scrolling. It's especially bad because ChatGPT came along during an industry down-cycle. An interesting thought experiment is: if hiring was like 2021, would your take be different? In terms of AI taking ALL THE JOBS... Maybe it will happen? Maybe it won't. But what action can we take from all this doom-scrolling? Other than "we should all be VERY CONCERNED." Which is just a way for us to stand around wringing our hands. My conclusion is much the same as always: I can't grow complacent. Which we've known for years. "The industry is changing." Of course it is. It's been changing for ~80 years. And if you go back to similar advances, you'll see similar arguments. Will this time be different? Maybe. But until it does, I think I'll continue to learn new skills (not just new languages/frameworks), refine my problem solving and troubleshooting, and above all, refine my people skills. But I think I'll avoid the doom-scrolling. Either AI is coming for ALL THE JOBS or it isn't, but even knowing that it is doesn't give me anything actionable to do about it.
- cowthulhu 4y ago
  It’s definitely sort of scary to me, but I’m hoping that it’ll be like previous times we have automated stuff - we’ll develop more advanced jobs on top of the new tech. So I don’t mean to be doom and gloom!

hallqv 4y ago

Also posting here as a bookmark for the future. I'm pretty sure most SWE's are toast, I've been pair programming with gpt-4 for the last weeks and it is freakishly good compared to gpt-3. It's just a matter of continuing on current trajectory of progress and most SWE's will be completely obsolete within 5 years.