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Part of the story is that solar electricity will soon become (indeed, in many places already is) cheaper than coal or natural gas. China in particular depends

by c54 4y ago

Part of the story is that solar electricity will soon become (indeed, in many places already is) cheaper than coal or natural gas. China in particular depends on long fragile trade routes from the Middle East for crude oil, and is already the world’s largest producer of solar panels. Technology like this will get to enjoy the plunging cost of solar and wind power.

ethbr0 4y ago
Was curious about the currently installed amounts: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-solar-power-by-country-in-2021/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-solar-power-by-count... (2021) You can definitely see a divergence between countries that have made it a priority and those that haven't, even per capita. Now that we've had larger deployments for awhile, are there any good number on capacity deterioration over time? Curious what the effective install longevity is.
- pjc50 4y ago
  https://news.energysage.com/longevity-of-solar/ https://news.energysage.com/longevity-of-solar/ : 0.7 percent degradation per year. That works out at over 80% after 25 years. The inverters need slightly more frequent replacement. The compounding effects on this are going to be dramatic. Everyone who borrowed money at sub-5% rates and then saw retail electricity going up by 50% made a great decision.
  - ethbr0 4y ago
    My thinking, isn't the effective end state that power stabilizes at much lower and without capacity cap solar rates? Previously, worldwide supply expansion = increasing fuel costs in the global market In a post-fuel / solar world, you can keep increasing supply capacity as long as you want. Which would upend a lot of assumptions about power. E.g. free or negative power cost at peak supply times, simply because people keep building capacity
    - danhor 4y ago
      > free or negative power cost at peak supply times, The electricity price already turns negative in quite a few countries with larger shares of renewables at peak times, but isn't really being exploited right now due to the high capital cost and low usage for most things that need electricity.
      - ethbr0 4y ago
        I guess my perspective is "When will people stop building solar capacity?" Which is another way of asking "When will people stop consuming more power?" Previously, we had finite energy resources that were limited by the fuel (oil, coal, gas) or regulation (nuclear). Suddenly, there is no limit. You could build as much solar as you had panels + installers for. Which really turns future energy on its head. Why not build more forever? And if there's excess, build more energy consumptive industry...

by c54 4y ago

ethbr0 4y ago

Was curious about the currently installed amounts: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-solar-power-by-country-in-2021/ https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapped-solar-power-by-count... (2021) You can definitely see a divergence between countries that have made it a priority and those that haven't, even per capita. Now that we've had larger deployments for awhile, are there any good number on capacity deterioration over time? Curious what the effective install longevity is.

pjc50 4y ago
https://news.energysage.com/longevity-of-solar/ https://news.energysage.com/longevity-of-solar/ : 0.7 percent degradation per year. That works out at over 80% after 25 years. The inverters need slightly more frequent replacement. The compounding effects on this are going to be dramatic. Everyone who borrowed money at sub-5% rates and then saw retail electricity going up by 50% made a great decision.
- ethbr0 4y ago
  My thinking, isn't the effective end state that power stabilizes at much lower and without capacity cap solar rates? Previously, worldwide supply expansion = increasing fuel costs in the global market In a post-fuel / solar world, you can keep increasing supply capacity as long as you want. Which would upend a lot of assumptions about power. E.g. free or negative power cost at peak supply times, simply because people keep building capacity
  - danhor 4y ago
    > free or negative power cost at peak supply times, The electricity price already turns negative in quite a few countries with larger shares of renewables at peak times, but isn't really being exploited right now due to the high capital cost and low usage for most things that need electricity.
    - ethbr0 4y ago
      I guess my perspective is "When will people stop building solar capacity?" Which is another way of asking "When will people stop consuming more power?" Previously, we had finite energy resources that were limited by the fuel (oil, coal, gas) or regulation (nuclear). Suddenly, there is no limit. You could build as much solar as you had panels + installers for. Which really turns future energy on its head. Why not build more forever? And if there's excess, build more energy consumptive industry...