5 ms·

The Death of a Technical Skill (2020) [pdf]

47 points by miohtama 4y ago

daydream 4y ago
Flash isn’t a good analogy to the current situation with AI tools. But it’s worthwhile to understand regardless. I think that AI tooling will cause demand for developers to actually go up instead of down. At least in the medium term say the next 3 to 5 years. There’s tons of businesses and nonprofits that could benefit from custom software development, where the cost has so far been prohibitively high. As the cost drops dramatically I expect demand to increase significantly. What does that cost/demand curve look like? I don’t know. But we are going to find out.
- tyingq 4y ago
  There's also "integration". Outside of the big tech companies are lots of stodgy old companies that will need to connect their legacy stuff to anything new.
- pessimizer 4y ago
  While there's an inherent conflict between copyright warrior corporations disrespecting the licenses of FOSS work, AI tooling will be an unprecedented boon for FOSS productivity. It's like giving every lonely cowboy developer a bunch of very skilled interns.
  - daydream 4y ago
    That’s a very interesting point I had not thought about. Let’s say AI tooling results in an across-the-board 2x multiplier for FOSS. Like there is twice as much FOSS. Plus the FOSS that exists today has twice the features plus overall quality. What happens then? Maybe long-term the main skill in software development is less about writing new code and more about architecting systems. And also using AI to glue components together and debug. Main difference if there’s way more FOSS there’s less need to write new greenfield modules. I don’t know. I’m spitballing here. It’s fascinating to think about.
    - melagonster 4y ago
      it is a problem that whether AI generate a code under copyright. but FOSS developer don't need to worry about this.
  - flangola7 4y ago
    GPT-4 can reverse engineer binary assembly code. Everything that runs locally will soon be de facto OSS.
    - Robotbeat 4y ago
      That’s awesome. Have you seen this demonstrated? I suspect companies will fight this with a kind of runtime encryption.
    - remexre 4y ago
      You said in another thread it's in "the Microsoft paper" -- could you point me at which one you were referring to? I didn't see it in https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4.pdf https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4.pdf , but it's possible that I missed it.
- bubbleRefuge 4y ago
  I agree. Large projects become small projects. Bringing custom development to the masses.
codemac 4y ago
COVID taught me to take these changes seriously, the hard way. I told my wife that lockdowns/masks would be at least a two year phenomenon, given how long the Spanish flu took - and our mitigation would make things take longer, not shorter. This had many obvious implications in my life, where I lived for the next 5 years, what jobs/skills I should be wary of vs. focus on, what stocks I should bet on.. etc. But I didn't behave accordingly with this obvious conclusion I had made. I struggled to actually take the leap and make changes in my life. I made very few stock bets, for example. Also we didn't take the opportunity to move/change plan/etc around real estate. With AI, I feel like this is a similar moment. My employer has an internal copilot thingie, and it's amazing when trying to use some internal library/service I've never used before. It even integrates with Emacs. What is obviously true about AI, and how does it affect your life? Curious what other software engineers are doing to prepare for these types of obvious changes.
- djmips 4y ago
  Deer in headlights mostly. But also diving in and trying out all the things!
- malauxyeux 4y ago
  > Curious what other software engineers are doing to prepare for these types of obvious changes. Contemplating a professional change. Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic; people aren't being replaced yet. But maybe it's time for something else for me. There are dire staffing shortages in nursing homes where I live – e.g., people develop bed sores because no one is available to turn them. I certainly could dedicate the rest of my life to that and it would make a real, tangible difference to people's lives. It's a scary change though. I am a bit squeamish and I wonder how I'd fare. And it's a big loss in pay. That's where I am in my AI-induced existential crisis, anyway.
  - raincom 4y ago
    Nursing homes abuse nurses, nursing assistants by hiring less number of people, also pay 50% of what hospitals pay. Just beware.
rockzom 4y ago
realtors aren't allowed on the moon. and, who knows...maybe a CDL will still be relevant in 50 years. The COBOL of meatspace.
dzink 4y ago
I have family in their 60s who will never lose job security due to being experts in Ada. Apple invited Flash developers at top sites (CNN, ESPN, NYTimes, etc) to a week-long class in embedding Video in cross-browser compatible video codex instead of Flash, right before the release of the iPad, so Jobs would have sites to demo with on stage. AI is different. A 10x developer can now potentially build at 100x speed with Copilot and GPT4, but with the built-in sandbox it is likely that GPT will not only run but also optimize code beyond what any developer can do. I have no doubt that within weeks if not months, there will AI generated code a human will not be able to understand that will outperform and be available with just a word request. This is not a shift from Flash to JS. That’s a shift from Software Engineering to being a Business Analyst overnight and the compensation will be even less due to oversupply of white collar talent. Management will be reduced too. This is not doom and gloom, this is prepare for these layoffs to be permanent and increased within months.
- matheusmoreira 4y ago
  > I have no doubt that within weeks if not months, there will AI generated code a human will not be able to understand that will outperform and be available with just a word request. And are we sure the AI won't be slipping malware into that code nobody understands?
  - tripleo1 4y ago
    Honestly, you're running it already.
    - melagonster 4y ago
      guess skynet in easy mode
- groby_b 4y ago
  Meanwhile, I'm just sitting here, picking bugs out of GPT4 code. But sure, 100x developers. It's good at well-known tasks. The more you veer into the unknown, the worse it gets. (It's the nature of LLMs). Will it impact CRUD development? Yes, indubitably. But no, we won't have 100x devs, and the SWEs that adopt to using it as a tool will do just fine. We won't run out of work. (One core point is that there's no upper bound for useful knowledge work)
timcavel 4y ago
[dead]

47 points by miohtama 4y ago

Flash isn’t a good analogy to the current situation with AI tools. But it’s worthwhile to understand regardless. I think that AI tooling will cause demand for developers to actually go up instead of down. At least in the medium term say the next 3 to 5 years. There’s tons of businesses and nonprofits that could benefit from custom software development, where the cost has so far been prohibitively high. As the cost drops dramatically I expect demand to increase significantly. What does that cost/demand curve look like? I don’t know. But we are going to find out.

tyingq 4y ago
There's also "integration". Outside of the big tech companies are lots of stodgy old companies that will need to connect their legacy stuff to anything new.
pessimizer 4y ago
While there's an inherent conflict between copyright warrior corporations disrespecting the licenses of FOSS work, AI tooling will be an unprecedented boon for FOSS productivity. It's like giving every lonely cowboy developer a bunch of very skilled interns.
- daydream 4y ago
  That’s a very interesting point I had not thought about. Let’s say AI tooling results in an across-the-board 2x multiplier for FOSS. Like there is twice as much FOSS. Plus the FOSS that exists today has twice the features plus overall quality. What happens then? Maybe long-term the main skill in software development is less about writing new code and more about architecting systems. And also using AI to glue components together and debug. Main difference if there’s way more FOSS there’s less need to write new greenfield modules. I don’t know. I’m spitballing here. It’s fascinating to think about.
  - melagonster 4y ago
    it is a problem that whether AI generate a code under copyright. but FOSS developer don't need to worry about this.
- flangola7 4y ago
  GPT-4 can reverse engineer binary assembly code. Everything that runs locally will soon be de facto OSS.
  - Robotbeat 4y ago
    That’s awesome. Have you seen this demonstrated? I suspect companies will fight this with a kind of runtime encryption.
  - remexre 4y ago
    You said in another thread it's in "the Microsoft paper" -- could you point me at which one you were referring to? I didn't see it in https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4.pdf https://cdn.openai.com/papers/gpt-4.pdf , but it's possible that I missed it.
bubbleRefuge 4y ago
I agree. Large projects become small projects. Bringing custom development to the masses.

codemac 4y ago

COVID taught me to take these changes seriously, the hard way. I told my wife that lockdowns/masks would be at least a two year phenomenon, given how long the Spanish flu took - and our mitigation would make things take longer, not shorter. This had many obvious implications in my life, where I lived for the next 5 years, what jobs/skills I should be wary of vs. focus on, what stocks I should bet on.. etc. But I didn't behave accordingly with this obvious conclusion I had made. I struggled to actually take the leap and make changes in my life. I made very few stock bets, for example. Also we didn't take the opportunity to move/change plan/etc around real estate. With AI, I feel like this is a similar moment. My employer has an internal copilot thingie, and it's amazing when trying to use some internal library/service I've never used before. It even integrates with Emacs. What is obviously true about AI, and how does it affect your life? Curious what other software engineers are doing to prepare for these types of obvious changes.

djmips 4y ago
Deer in headlights mostly. But also diving in and trying out all the things!
malauxyeux 4y ago
> Curious what other software engineers are doing to prepare for these types of obvious changes. Contemplating a professional change. Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic; people aren't being replaced yet. But maybe it's time for something else for me. There are dire staffing shortages in nursing homes where I live – e.g., people develop bed sores because no one is available to turn them. I certainly could dedicate the rest of my life to that and it would make a real, tangible difference to people's lives. It's a scary change though. I am a bit squeamish and I wonder how I'd fare. And it's a big loss in pay. That's where I am in my AI-induced existential crisis, anyway.
- raincom 4y ago
  Nursing homes abuse nurses, nursing assistants by hiring less number of people, also pay 50% of what hospitals pay. Just beware.

rockzom 4y ago

realtors aren't allowed on the moon. and, who knows...maybe a CDL will still be relevant in 50 years. The COBOL of meatspace.

dzink 4y ago

I have family in their 60s who will never lose job security due to being experts in Ada. Apple invited Flash developers at top sites (CNN, ESPN, NYTimes, etc) to a week-long class in embedding Video in cross-browser compatible video codex instead of Flash, right before the release of the iPad, so Jobs would have sites to demo with on stage. AI is different. A 10x developer can now potentially build at 100x speed with Copilot and GPT4, but with the built-in sandbox it is likely that GPT will not only run but also optimize code beyond what any developer can do. I have no doubt that within weeks if not months, there will AI generated code a human will not be able to understand that will outperform and be available with just a word request. This is not a shift from Flash to JS. That’s a shift from Software Engineering to being a Business Analyst overnight and the compensation will be even less due to oversupply of white collar talent. Management will be reduced too. This is not doom and gloom, this is prepare for these layoffs to be permanent and increased within months.

matheusmoreira 4y ago
> I have no doubt that within weeks if not months, there will AI generated code a human will not be able to understand that will outperform and be available with just a word request. And are we sure the AI won't be slipping malware into that code nobody understands?
- tripleo1 4y ago
  Honestly, you're running it already.
  - melagonster 4y ago
    guess skynet in easy mode
groby_b 4y ago
Meanwhile, I'm just sitting here, picking bugs out of GPT4 code. But sure, 100x developers. It's good at well-known tasks. The more you veer into the unknown, the worse it gets. (It's the nature of LLMs). Will it impact CRUD development? Yes, indubitably. But no, we won't have 100x devs, and the SWEs that adopt to using it as a tool will do just fine. We won't run out of work. (One core point is that there's no upper bound for useful knowledge work)

timcavel 4y ago

[dead]