Agree with the second part. As for the first part - yes, it would count. Timing of things is impossible to predict of course. But being right in the first plac

Agree with the second part. As for the first part - yes, it would count. Timing of things is impossible to predict of course. But being right in the first place, shouldn't be underestimated ! Let's take crypto as an example - one can predict it's going to 0, and one can say it will go to 1M$. Even though you don't know when, being right is the only chance you make something out of it.