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> Unless they actually create AGI. It which case, everyone is fucked, regardless of the industry. At that point, we all have to become massage therapists or wai

> Unless they actually create AGI. It which case, everyone is fucked, regardless of the industry. At that point, we all have to become massage therapists or waiters. GPT-4 has already shown sparks of AGI. It can solve complex problems with high accuracy. AGI is inevitable and will arrive soon, most likely within the next 3 years. And those jobs you've listed can be replaced by AI, the only limiting factor at this point is the lack of a physical body. Though, massages will still be performed by humans as some people would prefer that, but others don't care and would likely prefer AI over a human. So AI will still be deployed to act as a massage therapist.

dimal 4y ago
We don’t know what’s inevitable in foresight, only in hindsight. Sparks of AGI are sparks, and do not imply an inevitable progression to a particular end state. I don’t see GPT-* replacing us unless they endow it volition. If it requires prompts to get things done, some human has to understand the system enough in order to provide the correct prompt. Writing code is only a small part of the job. Knowing what code to write, what code to refactor, what abstraction to use that fits with your other abstractions — these things are the real job. Giving GPT volition would make it “self-prompting” and maybe allow it to make these leaps. But volition seems qualitatively different to me than what it’s doing now, and that just improving its current capabilities won’t necessarily lead to volition.
- Unitron 4y ago
  > Knowing what code to write, what code to refactor, what abstraction to use that fits with your other abstractions — these things are the real job. I don't see why you can't train AI to do these tasks. If you can train a human to do something you can train an AI to do it as well. Volition is not necessarily required and pseudo-volition can be trained.

dimal 4y ago

We don’t know what’s inevitable in foresight, only in hindsight. Sparks of AGI are sparks, and do not imply an inevitable progression to a particular end state. I don’t see GPT-* replacing us unless they endow it volition. If it requires prompts to get things done, some human has to understand the system enough in order to provide the correct prompt. Writing code is only a small part of the job. Knowing what code to write, what code to refactor, what abstraction to use that fits with your other abstractions — these things are the real job. Giving GPT volition would make it “self-prompting” and maybe allow it to make these leaps. But volition seems qualitatively different to me than what it’s doing now, and that just improving its current capabilities won’t necessarily lead to volition.

Unitron 4y ago
> Knowing what code to write, what code to refactor, what abstraction to use that fits with your other abstractions — these things are the real job. I don't see why you can't train AI to do these tasks. If you can train a human to do something you can train an AI to do it as well. Volition is not necessarily required and pseudo-volition can be trained.