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"Predicted this in 2008" is a funny sentence. If I now predicted that what the Fed is doing will result in an amazing economy, would it really count if it happe
by locallost 4y ago
"Predicted this in 2008" is a funny sentence. If I now predicted that what the Fed is doing will result in an amazing economy, would it really count if it happened in 15 years?
Peter Schiff is always predicting doom. It's not that he's talking complete nonsense, but objectively he is more wrong than right. His opinions corelate less to being correct and more to the fact that he invests a lot in gold, and his interest is that everyone else gets scared and does too.
- tfourb 4y agoIf I recall correctly, the general consensus is that while there are people who do very well in predicting future events and developments (google "super forecasters"), nobody can do so reliably beyond a time horizon of five years or so.
- TheAlchemist 4y agoAgree with the second part. As for the first part - yes, it would count. Timing of things is impossible to predict of course. But being right in the first place, shouldn't be underestimated ! Let's take crypto as an example - one can predict it's going to 0, and one can say it will go to 1M$. Even though you don't know when, being right is the only chance you make something out of it.
- polski-g 4y agoPeter Schiff has predicted 23 of the last 2 recessions.
- listenallyall 4y agoEasy to laugh at him, I'd say it's more like the doctor who tells you to quit smoking or it's eventually going to kill you. The fact that you haven't died yet doesn't exactly prove the doctor is an idiot or wrong.