> The problem I have with this line of thinking is that there's no attempt to even engage in any serious discussion about whether rogue AI is actually likely at

> The problem I have with this line of thinking is that there's no attempt to even engage in any serious discussion about whether rogue AI is actually likely at all. By "no attempt" are you criticizing that my comment doesn't quantify the likelihood or that no one is quantifying the likelihood? If it's the latter, have you looked? There is definitely serious discussion happening. The difference between AI and your other examples is trend. The ability of computers is growing superlinearly. Nothing related to aliens is changing much at all (some extra noise in the news about UFOs?), rapture has nothing going on. Maybe zombie apocalypse gets a tiny bump for there having been a global pandemic, but it's still approximately nothing. All of those are very different from what's happening with AI.