5 ms·

Need a wartime CEO, right? https://a16z.com/2011/04/14/peacetime-ceo-wartime-ceo/ https://a16z.com/2011/04/14/peacetime-ceo-wartime-ceo/ Although personally,

Need a wartime CEO, right? https://a16z.com/2011/04/14/peacetime-ceo-wartime-ceo/ https://a16z.com/2011/04/14/peacetime-ceo-wartime-ceo/ Although personally, I’m not seeing chatGPT bulldoze the world just yet. They need to monetize it, which means ads. Are they better at ads than the others? It’s not a given Is it ok to predict that, like so many things before, the noise of chatGPT will die out more quickly than we imagine?

sammoore 4y ago
> They need to monetize it, which means ads. Why ads? Seems like they're going the service route. Are you predicting them to start targeting the masses and build search/assistants/etc?
IanCal 4y ago
> They need to monetize it, What's wrong with the current approach of just selling access?
pwinnski 4y ago
It definitely doesn't mean ads, and introducing ads would be a mistake. They will likely lower the limits on free use once they're ready to handle a huge influx of paid users. They are in a tough spot temporarily ramping up things enough to take the limits of paid accounts, and since they can't onboard everybody they're being generous with the free tier, but that will end.
WXLCKNO 4y ago
I'm sure this internet thing will die out too.
woeirua 4y ago
GPT4s killer revenue stream isn't selling ads on keyword searches. It's selling access to a general compute engine that can take text and do useful things with it. The API is dead simple to use, and all you have to do is just change a line of text to "upgrade" to the newest models over time. (By the way, the upgrade from ChatGPT -> GPT4 is huge). Google should be deathly afraid of this. Not because Microsoft is going to replace them with Bing. But because, GPT is going to be in every major software product that's connected to the internet within a few years. By the end of the decade if not sooner agents powered by LLMs will be the primary mode of interacting with the internet. Going to Google.com or whatever to search for an answer is done. You'll just ask Siri 3.0 and the answer will be good enough.
- everdrive 4y ago
  The internet you’re describing sounds like hell on earth. I don’t want to talk to an llm.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - jmckenzie-dev 4y ago
    Out of curiosity, have you played around with ChatGPT-4 at all? While I would disagree with you on v3.5 alone, on v4 I _strongly_ disagree with that sentiment. Interacting with it is significantly better than modern search engines to get a mental model of something, slight mistakes and searching to validate claims and all.
- kweingar 4y ago
  I’ve said this before on HN, but if LLM agents catch on, won’t it be self-defeating in the long term? They need to pull tons of info from the web to be useful and up-to-date. If we all stop visiting websites, then who’s going to keep publishing all of that info?
  - woeirua 4y ago
    The ad based revenue model is done, yes. A lot of sites will still exist though behind paywalls.
    - kweingar 4y ago
      Doesn’t that mean that search products will also struggle, since they rely on everything being freely available?
  - pixl97 4y ago
    Well, I would assume a lot of the producers, for example people making products would still have sites the agents could pull from to have up to date information. You'd most likely lose a lot of the middlemen that take that data, add something, and then cover the page in ads. There are also tons of ego websites that aren't going anywhere from what I can tell. Tiktok will still be around unless it gets banned, and something else will pop up behind it if it does.
polski-g 4y ago
They already have monetized it. Its $20/month.
- siva7 4y ago
  Basically OpenAI succeeded right from the start with what Google never got right (monetize search) until Google discovered how to monetize their search product through an advertisement model. Now that ads aren't anymore needed for a successful search product Google is in existential danger. Classic Innovators dilemma.
ithkuil 4y ago
They seem on the right path to become a platform. They'll grow together with their customers. And the possibilities are huge
aadvark69 4y ago
They can monetize with their plugin (aka apps) ecosystem. Take 10% of each transaction.

sammoore 4y ago

> They need to monetize it, which means ads. Why ads? Seems like they're going the service route. Are you predicting them to start targeting the masses and build search/assistants/etc?

IanCal 4y ago

> They need to monetize it, What's wrong with the current approach of just selling access?

pwinnski 4y ago

It definitely doesn't mean ads, and introducing ads would be a mistake. They will likely lower the limits on free use once they're ready to handle a huge influx of paid users. They are in a tough spot temporarily ramping up things enough to take the limits of paid accounts, and since they can't onboard everybody they're being generous with the free tier, but that will end.

WXLCKNO 4y ago

I'm sure this internet thing will die out too.

woeirua 4y ago

GPT4s killer revenue stream isn't selling ads on keyword searches. It's selling access to a general compute engine that can take text and do useful things with it. The API is dead simple to use, and all you have to do is just change a line of text to "upgrade" to the newest models over time. (By the way, the upgrade from ChatGPT -> GPT4 is huge). Google should be deathly afraid of this. Not because Microsoft is going to replace them with Bing. But because, GPT is going to be in every major software product that's connected to the internet within a few years. By the end of the decade if not sooner agents powered by LLMs will be the primary mode of interacting with the internet. Going to Google.com or whatever to search for an answer is done. You'll just ask Siri 3.0 and the answer will be good enough.

everdrive 4y ago
The internet you’re describing sounds like hell on earth. I don’t want to talk to an llm.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- jmckenzie-dev 4y ago
  Out of curiosity, have you played around with ChatGPT-4 at all? While I would disagree with you on v3.5 alone, on v4 I _strongly_ disagree with that sentiment. Interacting with it is significantly better than modern search engines to get a mental model of something, slight mistakes and searching to validate claims and all.
kweingar 4y ago
I’ve said this before on HN, but if LLM agents catch on, won’t it be self-defeating in the long term? They need to pull tons of info from the web to be useful and up-to-date. If we all stop visiting websites, then who’s going to keep publishing all of that info?
- woeirua 4y ago
  The ad based revenue model is done, yes. A lot of sites will still exist though behind paywalls.
  - kweingar 4y ago
    Doesn’t that mean that search products will also struggle, since they rely on everything being freely available?
- pixl97 4y ago
  Well, I would assume a lot of the producers, for example people making products would still have sites the agents could pull from to have up to date information. You'd most likely lose a lot of the middlemen that take that data, add something, and then cover the page in ads. There are also tons of ego websites that aren't going anywhere from what I can tell. Tiktok will still be around unless it gets banned, and something else will pop up behind it if it does.

polski-g 4y ago

They already have monetized it. Its $20/month.

siva7 4y ago
Basically OpenAI succeeded right from the start with what Google never got right (monetize search) until Google discovered how to monetize their search product through an advertisement model. Now that ads aren't anymore needed for a successful search product Google is in existential danger. Classic Innovators dilemma.

ithkuil 4y ago

They seem on the right path to become a platform. They'll grow together with their customers. And the possibilities are huge

aadvark69 4y ago

They can monetize with their plugin (aka apps) ecosystem. Take 10% of each transaction.