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> I don’t get the overall doom and gloom towards LLMs on the software field. > If you are a software engineer, this will output your productivity ten fold on t

> I don’t get the overall doom and gloom towards LLMs on the software field. > If you are a software engineer, this will output your productivity ten fold on the upcoming years. Now you don’t need to hire junior devs and can just build the product of your dreams with very limited capital. And if you're a junior software engineer? Fuck you and be unemployed.* Do you get it now? * Until you can climb up the ladder where each rung is now 20 feet apart.

raldi 4y ago
What are the barriers to a junior dev creating their own product?
- tablespoon 4y ago
  > What are the barriers to a junior dev creating their own product? Are you seriously asking that question? What are the barriers to a junior dev writing the Linux kernel from scratch by themselves? What are the barriers from climbing from the bottom to the top of a ladder where the rungs are 20 feet apart? Sure, start at the top, then it's great. Very few start at the top.
  - raldi 4y ago
    Yes, I'm seriously asking. If a junior programmer wants to create a mobile app, or a desktop app, or a cloud service, what are the barriers? All the ones I can think of will get lower, not higher, as a result of the AI revolution. If I'm missing one, or a class of product with different barriers, I genuinely would like you to point that out.
    - tablespoon 4y ago
      > Yes, I'm seriously asking. If a junior programmer wants to create a mobile app, or a desktop app, or a cloud service, what are the barriers? All the ones I can think of will get lower, not higher, as a result of the AI revolution. Seriously, think about it a bit, without being sanguine. The junior dev is inexperienced, in everything, and now has no path to build up that experience. No one's going to want their 18/22 year old amateur-hour "chatgpt make me a cloud app" (which is in competition against millions of others). So unless they're extremely lucky, they goto fail. Maybe after 10 years of those failures they could build up enough experience through trial-and-error to maybe see a little success with a "chatgpt make me a cloud app," but how are they going to feed themselves the meantime? Maybe that will work if they have rich parents, but otherwise they're probably going to have to use up their energy to scrape by. So another goto fail.
- PeterisP 4y ago
  Competition from non-junior devs, who can do all the same things the junior+GPT can do and also the tricky parts which "GPTs" can't yet do; and also have the benefit of domain-specific expertise about some area of business and/or better connections for investors, marketing, B2B connections. This hypothetical scenario is literally like "pull up the ladder behind you", as all this experience and connections is something that a senior person has gotten while being handsomely paid for their time, but a future junior person may have to get on their own time and dime. Ideas are a dime a dozen, execution is everything, and there's no reason to assume that random unemployed inexperienced people will be superior at execution.

raldi 4y ago

What are the barriers to a junior dev creating their own product?

tablespoon 4y ago
> What are the barriers to a junior dev creating their own product? Are you seriously asking that question? What are the barriers to a junior dev writing the Linux kernel from scratch by themselves? What are the barriers from climbing from the bottom to the top of a ladder where the rungs are 20 feet apart? Sure, start at the top, then it's great. Very few start at the top.
- raldi 4y ago
  Yes, I'm seriously asking. If a junior programmer wants to create a mobile app, or a desktop app, or a cloud service, what are the barriers? All the ones I can think of will get lower, not higher, as a result of the AI revolution. If I'm missing one, or a class of product with different barriers, I genuinely would like you to point that out.
  - tablespoon 4y ago
    > Yes, I'm seriously asking. If a junior programmer wants to create a mobile app, or a desktop app, or a cloud service, what are the barriers? All the ones I can think of will get lower, not higher, as a result of the AI revolution. Seriously, think about it a bit, without being sanguine. The junior dev is inexperienced, in everything, and now has no path to build up that experience. No one's going to want their 18/22 year old amateur-hour "chatgpt make me a cloud app" (which is in competition against millions of others). So unless they're extremely lucky, they goto fail. Maybe after 10 years of those failures they could build up enough experience through trial-and-error to maybe see a little success with a "chatgpt make me a cloud app," but how are they going to feed themselves the meantime? Maybe that will work if they have rich parents, but otherwise they're probably going to have to use up their energy to scrape by. So another goto fail.
PeterisP 4y ago
Competition from non-junior devs, who can do all the same things the junior+GPT can do and also the tricky parts which "GPTs" can't yet do; and also have the benefit of domain-specific expertise about some area of business and/or better connections for investors, marketing, B2B connections. This hypothetical scenario is literally like "pull up the ladder behind you", as all this experience and connections is something that a senior person has gotten while being handsomely paid for their time, but a future junior person may have to get on their own time and dime. Ideas are a dime a dozen, execution is everything, and there's no reason to assume that random unemployed inexperienced people will be superior at execution.