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I don't think social mobility will be eliminated, I think the variance of individual mobility will just be radically increased. This technology will allow entr

I don't think social mobility will be eliminated, I think the variance of individual mobility will just be radically increased. This technology will allow entrepreneurs and solo content creators to accomplish a lot more, but it'll also eliminate a lot of safe career paths. As a result, if you don't want to be stuck in the underclass doing manual labor or customer service, you'll need to either be brilliant, well connected, start a business or create content of some sort that attracts an audience you can monetize. The people who do well will do very well, but a lot of people who would have done decently before are going to fail.

crop_rotation 4y ago
Your points all resonate with me. But the end result is same, the opportunities available for social mobility to an average person would reduce. I am not even sure of the 2nd and 3rd order effects. How would an industry like hospitality survive if most of the knowledge work based jobs are gone.
tablespoon 4y ago
> I don't think social mobility will be eliminated, I think the variance of individual mobility will just be radically increased. Those round to the same number: 0.
mattgreenrocks 4y ago
> The people who do well will do very well, but a lot of people who would have done decently before are going to fail. How is this not a huge problem? The vast majority of people are not exceptional. Cutting out that middle band of ability and resources is a surefire recipe for social unrest.
- namaria 4y ago
  >Cutting out that middle band of ability and resources is a surefire recipe for social unrest. I don't know, the US has been pushing that envelope for 40+ years and people are still paying taxes...
  - tablespoon 4y ago
    > I don't know, the US has been pushing that envelope for 40+ years and people are still paying taxes... And people can push the "meth consumption" envelope for years before they finally die from it, too. Getting away with unsustainable practices for X amount of time doesn't prove they're sustainable and won't end in collapse. It just means collapse can take more than X amount of time.
    - namaria 4y ago
      Nothing is sustainable. This is a concept invented to thwart questioning the environmental impacts of industrial activity. "Oh we can do it 'sustainably'". To claim AI tools will strip out the wealth of the middle class and cause unrest can be disproved by the fact that it was beaten to it by the US corporations by over a generation. The "middle class" was an invention of post war US to reward the soldiers who fought in Europe and the Pacific. Things are just reverting to a more long (as in multiple centuries) trend behavior of economies. Few haves, lots of have-nots and barely anything in between.
  - mattgreenrocks 4y ago
    We can only LARP as ubermensch alpha males for so long. Eventually something will give; I suspect it will be a generational divide like none other. Arguably you see the seeds of this already with things like incels opting out of conventional aspirations.

crop_rotation 4y ago

Your points all resonate with me. But the end result is same, the opportunities available for social mobility to an average person would reduce. I am not even sure of the 2nd and 3rd order effects. How would an industry like hospitality survive if most of the knowledge work based jobs are gone.

tablespoon 4y ago

> I don't think social mobility will be eliminated, I think the variance of individual mobility will just be radically increased. Those round to the same number: 0.

mattgreenrocks 4y ago

> The people who do well will do very well, but a lot of people who would have done decently before are going to fail. How is this not a huge problem? The vast majority of people are not exceptional. Cutting out that middle band of ability and resources is a surefire recipe for social unrest.

namaria 4y ago
>Cutting out that middle band of ability and resources is a surefire recipe for social unrest. I don't know, the US has been pushing that envelope for 40+ years and people are still paying taxes...
- tablespoon 4y ago
  > I don't know, the US has been pushing that envelope for 40+ years and people are still paying taxes... And people can push the "meth consumption" envelope for years before they finally die from it, too. Getting away with unsustainable practices for X amount of time doesn't prove they're sustainable and won't end in collapse. It just means collapse can take more than X amount of time.
  - namaria 4y ago
    Nothing is sustainable. This is a concept invented to thwart questioning the environmental impacts of industrial activity. "Oh we can do it 'sustainably'". To claim AI tools will strip out the wealth of the middle class and cause unrest can be disproved by the fact that it was beaten to it by the US corporations by over a generation. The "middle class" was an invention of post war US to reward the soldiers who fought in Europe and the Pacific. Things are just reverting to a more long (as in multiple centuries) trend behavior of economies. Few haves, lots of have-nots and barely anything in between.
- mattgreenrocks 4y ago
  We can only LARP as ubermensch alpha males for so long. Eventually something will give; I suspect it will be a generational divide like none other. Arguably you see the seeds of this already with things like incels opting out of conventional aspirations.