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I have been saying that we will all be Amish eventually as we are forced to decide what technologies to allow into our communities. Communities which do not wil

I have been saying that we will all be Amish eventually as we are forced to decide what technologies to allow into our communities. Communities which do not will go away (e.g., VR porn and sex dolls will further decrease birth rates; religions/communities that forbid it will be more fertile)

Wesxdz 4y ago
I think a synthetic womb/cloning would counter the fertility decline among more advanced civilization
- aiappreciator 4y ago
  Birth is not the limiter, childrearing is. Synthetic wombs are more expensive than just having surrogate mothers. For the same reason that synthetic food is more expensive than bread and cabbage. The actual counter to fertility decline, may be AI teachers. AI will radically close the education gap between rich and poor, and lower the costs. All you need is a physical human to supervise the kid, the AI will do the rest, from entertainment, to education, to identifying when the child is hungry/sleepy/potty, and relaying that info for the human to act on.
  - shanebellone 4y ago
    This is what ought to happen. The question is what will happen?
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
  - Wesxdz 4y ago
    Sine qua non ad astra
aiappreciator 4y ago
That's not required. The Amish have about a 10% defection rate. Their community deliberately allows young people to experience the outside world when they reach adulthood, and choose to return or to leave permanently. This has two effects. 1. People who stay, actually want to stay. Massively improving the stability of the community. 2. The outside communities receive a fresh infusion of population, that's already well integrated into the society, rather than refugees coming from 10000 miles away. Essentially, rural america will eventually be different shades of Amish (in about 100 years). The amish population will overflow from the farms, and flow into the cities, replenishing the population of the more productive cities (Which are not population-self-sustaining). This is a sustainable arrangement, and eliminates the need of mass-immigration and demographic destabilisation. This is also in-line with historical patterns, cities have always had negative natural population growth (disease/higher real estate costs). Cities basically grind population into money, so they need rural areas to replenish the population.
- pmoriarty 4y ago
  "People who stay, actually want to stay." That depends on how you define "want". Amish are ostracized by their family and community if they leave. That's some massive coercion right there: either stay or lose your connection to the people you're closest to and everything you've ever known and raised to believe your whole life. Not much of a choice, though some exceptionally independent people do manage to make that sacrifice.
- mcculley 4y ago
  > This is also in-line with historical patterns, cities have always had negative natural population growth (disease/higher real estate costs). I had not heard this before. Do you have citations for this? (I realize cities have lower birth rate than rural areas in many cases. I am interested in the assertion that they are negative. Has it always been so? Or have cities and rural areas declined at same rate?)
VMG 4y ago
Everybody decides what technologies to use all the time. Condoms exist already, but not everybody uses them always.
- mcculley 4y ago
  It does not take perfect compliance to result in drastically different birth rates in different cultures/communities.

Wesxdz 4y ago

I think a synthetic womb/cloning would counter the fertility decline among more advanced civilization

aiappreciator 4y ago
Birth is not the limiter, childrearing is. Synthetic wombs are more expensive than just having surrogate mothers. For the same reason that synthetic food is more expensive than bread and cabbage. The actual counter to fertility decline, may be AI teachers. AI will radically close the education gap between rich and poor, and lower the costs. All you need is a physical human to supervise the kid, the AI will do the rest, from entertainment, to education, to identifying when the child is hungry/sleepy/potty, and relaying that info for the human to act on.
- shanebellone 4y ago
  This is what ought to happen. The question is what will happen?
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- Wesxdz 4y ago
  Sine qua non ad astra

aiappreciator 4y ago

That's not required. The Amish have about a 10% defection rate. Their community deliberately allows young people to experience the outside world when they reach adulthood, and choose to return or to leave permanently. This has two effects. 1. People who stay, actually want to stay. Massively improving the stability of the community. 2. The outside communities receive a fresh infusion of population, that's already well integrated into the society, rather than refugees coming from 10000 miles away. Essentially, rural america will eventually be different shades of Amish (in about 100 years). The amish population will overflow from the farms, and flow into the cities, replenishing the population of the more productive cities (Which are not population-self-sustaining). This is a sustainable arrangement, and eliminates the need of mass-immigration and demographic destabilisation. This is also in-line with historical patterns, cities have always had negative natural population growth (disease/higher real estate costs). Cities basically grind population into money, so they need rural areas to replenish the population.

pmoriarty 4y ago
"People who stay, actually want to stay." That depends on how you define "want". Amish are ostracized by their family and community if they leave. That's some massive coercion right there: either stay or lose your connection to the people you're closest to and everything you've ever known and raised to believe your whole life. Not much of a choice, though some exceptionally independent people do manage to make that sacrifice.
mcculley 4y ago
> This is also in-line with historical patterns, cities have always had negative natural population growth (disease/higher real estate costs). I had not heard this before. Do you have citations for this? (I realize cities have lower birth rate than rural areas in many cases. I am interested in the assertion that they are negative. Has it always been so? Or have cities and rural areas declined at same rate?)

VMG 4y ago

Everybody decides what technologies to use all the time. Condoms exist already, but not everybody uses them always.

mcculley 4y ago
It does not take perfect compliance to result in drastically different birth rates in different cultures/communities.