3 ms·

I agree that fab-on-demand technologies will become important in the future, but I don't buy the vision of a 3D printer (at least, not a good one) in every home

I agree that fab-on-demand technologies will become important in the future, but I don't buy the vision of a 3D printer (at least, not a good one) in every home. Think about the 2D printing analogy -- while almost everyone has a 2D printer in their home, early every morning, while we're still asleep, a car drives by our house and hurls a poorly printed bundle of paper at our front stoop containing the day's news. There's no reason that we COULDN'T each print a personalized copy of the day's newspaper at home, but the fact is that we don't. Likewise, I'll bet that most of HN have given up on printing their own photos at home, and just do the sensible thing and upload them to Shutterfly, or Target, or WalMart, or any of the other sites that can deliver high-quality photo prints to your door for pennies. I just don't believe that the average user will take on the technical knowledge, space, upkeep and supply costs to run a 3D printer in their house. But, I can see the day when every Kinko's, or the equivalent, is equipped with one of these babies.

jessriedel 15y ago
These scenarios aren't mutual exclusive. Just like most homes have newspaper delivery and a printer, it's easy to imagine most homes having a 3D printer for certain products and to have other products printed out at dedicated facilities.
bpm140 15y ago
In 1975, if you wanted a personal computer you bought a kit for roughly $1,750 in today's dollars and you assembled it yourself. It didn't have a monitor. You programmed it yourself. And at the end of all that you had blinky lights that could do math. Five years later you have the Apple][, the Atari ST and the IBM PC. Ten years later you had a Macintosh. Thirty-five years later we were walking around with supercomputers in our pocket. Extrapolating the adoption of 3D printing based upon today's home kits is definitely short-term thinking. Better to consider what a $500,000 top-of-the-line Objet printer can do and imagine it in you home 15 years from now, in the space your microwave takes up.
- DerekL 15y ago
  You mean the Atari 8-bit computers; the Atari 400 and 800 were released in 1979. The Atari ST didn't debut until 1985.
  - bpm140 15y ago
    Good call! Wrong Ataris.
commieneko 15y ago
I'm curious as to how old you are. This is not a slam or being patronizing; I'm looking to add a data point. I'm in my 50s and I haven't subscribed to a newspaper in 10 years. Most of the young people I know, in their 20s do not read physical newspapers and many of them don't watch broadcast television. Newspapers are fast dying out, and TV stations are starting to sweat. (I've worked in and out of broadcast TV for the last 15 years or so.) Demographics are defiantly skewing to older people, and even those are dropping. They don't print photos at home or at photoshops. They look at them on their computers or phones. These days the only time I ever print a photo is for my 96 year old father; he has vision problems looking at screens. Until recently he was perfectly happy to look at photos on his desktop PC. In fact a major project I did for him was to scan in boxes and boxes of old photos. (Many of which I've recently had to print out again into books.) Now I do know lots of people, guys mostly, who have wood shops or car repair tools. I'm not really talking about technical people. Mostly guys in their 20s - 50s. And when I go to the hobby stores these days I see all sorts of interesting "making" stuff aimed at women. One company makes a CNC paper cutting machine that is very popular with scrap bookers. They have recently expanded into a machine that creates elaborate cake decorating layer. And some of the polymer clay craft systems are very suggestive. People have always been makers, that's part of what defines people. One of the advantages to making is that you can make whatever you want. If you can make it.
- URSpider94 15y ago
  I'm in my mid-30's ... and no, I don't subscribe to a newspaper either, but lots of people still do. And, as you mention, even if one doesn't subscribe, the most likely work-around is to view on one's phone/computer, rather than to print a copy at home.
forgottenpaswrd 15y ago
"There's no reason that we COULDN'T each print a personalized copy of the day's newspaper at home, but the fact is that we don't." We do. We print ON A COMPUTER SCREEN a personalized newspaper at home. Once we read it (we don't need it anymore) we make it disappear. You should try it, it is magic!. :-) "I just don't believe that the average user will take on the technical knowledge, space, upkeep and supply costs to run a 3D printer in their house. " The same thing was said about cars or computers before. The biggest users of my 3d printer are non technical women and girls! They love it to make cooking , shower and closet hooks, for making their own earrings, bracelets, rings, and necklaces, things for the garden and cute flower vases.

jessriedel 15y ago

These scenarios aren't mutual exclusive. Just like most homes have newspaper delivery and a printer, it's easy to imagine most homes having a 3D printer for certain products and to have other products printed out at dedicated facilities.

bpm140 15y ago

In 1975, if you wanted a personal computer you bought a kit for roughly $1,750 in today's dollars and you assembled it yourself. It didn't have a monitor. You programmed it yourself. And at the end of all that you had blinky lights that could do math. Five years later you have the Apple][, the Atari ST and the IBM PC. Ten years later you had a Macintosh. Thirty-five years later we were walking around with supercomputers in our pocket. Extrapolating the adoption of 3D printing based upon today's home kits is definitely short-term thinking. Better to consider what a $500,000 top-of-the-line Objet printer can do and imagine it in you home 15 years from now, in the space your microwave takes up.

DerekL 15y ago
You mean the Atari 8-bit computers; the Atari 400 and 800 were released in 1979. The Atari ST didn't debut until 1985.
- bpm140 15y ago
  Good call! Wrong Ataris.

commieneko 15y ago

I'm curious as to how old you are. This is not a slam or being patronizing; I'm looking to add a data point. I'm in my 50s and I haven't subscribed to a newspaper in 10 years. Most of the young people I know, in their 20s do not read physical newspapers and many of them don't watch broadcast television. Newspapers are fast dying out, and TV stations are starting to sweat. (I've worked in and out of broadcast TV for the last 15 years or so.) Demographics are defiantly skewing to older people, and even those are dropping. They don't print photos at home or at photoshops. They look at them on their computers or phones. These days the only time I ever print a photo is for my 96 year old father; he has vision problems looking at screens. Until recently he was perfectly happy to look at photos on his desktop PC. In fact a major project I did for him was to scan in boxes and boxes of old photos. (Many of which I've recently had to print out again into books.) Now I do know lots of people, guys mostly, who have wood shops or car repair tools. I'm not really talking about technical people. Mostly guys in their 20s - 50s. And when I go to the hobby stores these days I see all sorts of interesting "making" stuff aimed at women. One company makes a CNC paper cutting machine that is very popular with scrap bookers. They have recently expanded into a machine that creates elaborate cake decorating layer. And some of the polymer clay craft systems are very suggestive. People have always been makers, that's part of what defines people. One of the advantages to making is that you can make whatever you want. If you can make it.

URSpider94 15y ago
I'm in my mid-30's ... and no, I don't subscribe to a newspaper either, but lots of people still do. And, as you mention, even if one doesn't subscribe, the most likely work-around is to view on one's phone/computer, rather than to print a copy at home.

forgottenpaswrd 15y ago

"There's no reason that we COULDN'T each print a personalized copy of the day's newspaper at home, but the fact is that we don't." We do. We print ON A COMPUTER SCREEN a personalized newspaper at home. Once we read it (we don't need it anymore) we make it disappear. You should try it, it is magic!. :-) "I just don't believe that the average user will take on the technical knowledge, space, upkeep and supply costs to run a 3D printer in their house. " The same thing was said about cars or computers before. The biggest users of my 3d printer are non technical women and girls! They love it to make cooking , shower and closet hooks, for making their own earrings, bracelets, rings, and necklaces, things for the garden and cute flower vases.