4 ms·

> If you buy into the hype & think this wave is going to be equivalently (or 10x) as impactful as cloud computing, what's the equivalent to buying Amazon stock

by nico 4y ago

> If you buy into the hype & think this wave is going to be equivalently (or 10x) as impactful as cloud computing, what's the equivalent to buying Amazon stock in 2003? About ten years ago, a big VC partner gave a talk at Stanford. In his talk he asked the audience which company would be “the next Google”. After hearing a few suggestions, he said the company hadn’t even been started yet hence nobody could really know. Changes are happening so fast now, that I wouldn’t be surprised if 6 months to 1 year from now, something comes out that kills GPT. It’s very hard right now to tell who the winners will be. For now, if I had to choose (this is not financial advice), maybe betting on MS and NVIDIA could pay off in the short-midterm. But 2-5 years from now? Impossible to know.

mgfist 4y ago
> something comes out that kills GPT. Can't even assume the LLM providers will be the big winners. LLMs can be replicated: https://pub.towardsai.net/meet-alpaca-stanford-universitys-instruction-following-language-model-that-matches-gpt-3-5-490a38114a7e https://pub.towardsai.net/meet-alpaca-stanford-universitys-i... for much cheaper than they can be built.
- joshspankit 4y ago
  If the laws prohibit it (as they do in the case of Alpaca) then it doesn’t really matter how cheaply they can be built: the resulting AI won’t be able to be significantly monetized.
  - nico 4y ago
    But a lot of companies could just use it anyway. Use it now, pay for the consequences later. Not condoning it, just pointing it out. Things are moving so fast, that in 1-2 months there will be an open source or free version of a GPT-3 level LLM out. At that point they can swap out their illegal LLMs for the free/open one and done. OpenAI knows this and that’s why they are working so hard in multi-modality - to be able to keep their edge.
    - joshspankit 4y ago
      I’m not going to argue, and I think I may have made a similar point if I had come across my comment, but that’s why I chose to say “significantly”. Any startup could certainly “use it now”, but the higher your valuation the higher the scrutiny and history is littered with companies that had to close shop once it was discovered they were cheating. You can probably get away with it when small, probably weather the storm if you’re big, but in between is a danger zone.
      - nico 4y ago
        You are right. Being illegal didn’t stop Uber, nor Airbnb, nor a bunch of other companies and services. If you grow fast enough, the growth becomes so valuable that no one really wants to (or maybe can?) stop you. If you are small, nobody cares. And like you said, in the middle is a lot more dangerous.
CuriouslyC 4y ago
I just want to second the (not financial advise) line, the market dynamics now are not favorable to taking these sorts of bets, particularly since both companies got run up in the pandemic.

by nico 4y ago

mgfist 4y ago

> something comes out that kills GPT. Can't even assume the LLM providers will be the big winners. LLMs can be replicated: https://pub.towardsai.net/meet-alpaca-stanford-universitys-instruction-following-language-model-that-matches-gpt-3-5-490a38114a7e https://pub.towardsai.net/meet-alpaca-stanford-universitys-i... for much cheaper than they can be built.

joshspankit 4y ago
If the laws prohibit it (as they do in the case of Alpaca) then it doesn’t really matter how cheaply they can be built: the resulting AI won’t be able to be significantly monetized.
- nico 4y ago
  But a lot of companies could just use it anyway. Use it now, pay for the consequences later. Not condoning it, just pointing it out. Things are moving so fast, that in 1-2 months there will be an open source or free version of a GPT-3 level LLM out. At that point they can swap out their illegal LLMs for the free/open one and done. OpenAI knows this and that’s why they are working so hard in multi-modality - to be able to keep their edge.
  - joshspankit 4y ago
    I’m not going to argue, and I think I may have made a similar point if I had come across my comment, but that’s why I chose to say “significantly”. Any startup could certainly “use it now”, but the higher your valuation the higher the scrutiny and history is littered with companies that had to close shop once it was discovered they were cheating. You can probably get away with it when small, probably weather the storm if you’re big, but in between is a danger zone.
    - nico 4y ago
      You are right. Being illegal didn’t stop Uber, nor Airbnb, nor a bunch of other companies and services. If you grow fast enough, the growth becomes so valuable that no one really wants to (or maybe can?) stop you. If you are small, nobody cares. And like you said, in the middle is a lot more dangerous.

CuriouslyC 4y ago

I just want to second the (not financial advise) line, the market dynamics now are not favorable to taking these sorts of bets, particularly since both companies got run up in the pandemic.