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That’s not true, current machine learning algorithms involve no manual programming past the training and inference code and it’s extremely difficult to predict

That’s not true, current machine learning algorithms involve no manual programming past the training and inference code and it’s extremely difficult to predict what they will do without just trying it and seeing. I think this video is a nice introduction to the basic concept to how a computer can figure things out automatically without being manually programmed and without the creators understanding the “why”: https://youtu.be/qv6UVOQ0F44 https://youtu.be/qv6UVOQ0F44 ChatGPT is much more complicated than the AI in that video but it shows some of the basic concepts

goatlover 4y ago
LLMs generate text. They're built to generate text. That they generate some kind of textual output is entirely predictable. Same with image generators. They will generate some kind of image given a prompt. They're not Skynet.
- circuit10 4y ago
  That an AI will have some kind of output is obvious, it doesn’t mean that you can predict what that output will be. It’s like saying that you have solved physics by saying “something will happen”
  - goatlover 4y ago
    I'm confident the output of chatbot won't be literally taking over the world and killing all the humans.
  - philipov 4y ago
    I think the point he's trying to make is that AI does not have an independent Will. It lacks desires and the ability to operate in opposition to its programming. This makes it no different from any other tool we use to enhance our abilities. Whether or not you can predict a tool's output is irrelevant. I can't predict the output of a random number generator, but that doesn't make it sentient.
    - blackbear_ 4y ago
      This is not necessarily true, however, for example in reinforcement learning there is a lot of work on "intrinsic motivation", i.e., creating systems that set and pursue their own goals. https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.06976 https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.06976
      - philipov 4y ago
        I think it should be possible to build a sentient AI, but it hasn't been done yet. What remains to be seen is whether our current techniques will be suitable for making that self-retraining process efficient, or if we'll need to find better math to use as the basis for it. Part of what makes the brain so useful is that it fits in our skull, and is fast enough to learn in real time. But, either way, I think that's what's on the line for people who disagree about how to use the word "intelligence." They mean it as a synonym for sentience, and the people arguing against them are using it differently. Before we can evaluate the truth of an argument, we should first agree to use words the same way.
    - flangola7 4y ago
      Asteroids are not sentient either, but they can still kill you.
      - philipov 4y ago
        Asteroids aren't intelligent, either.
    - SanderNL 4y ago
      With LLMs you say “you want to do X” and voila, personality. What is indeed missing from current implementations is continuous looping. Doing actions and taking stock of the results. I guess that’s kind of expensive right now. We’ll get there. I don’t see the fundamental problem.
    - circuit10 4y ago
      "It lacks desires and the ability to operate in opposition to its programming." Not really true, most AI is based on optimising some goal rather than following a fixed set of rules
  - chongli 4y ago
    You can’t predict the outcome of a coin toss. That doesn’t make the coin intelligent.
- planede 4y ago
  Humans are also entirely predictable, all they do is move their limbs around, make sound, etc...
  - PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
    Sure, absolutely. Make a list of the things we do "entirely predictably". Make a list of the things a given ML system does "entirely predictably". One of these lists is (a lot) longer than the other. Interesting, no?
    - planede 4y ago
      Conversely if a person loses their ability to move their limbs or to talk then they also become less inteligent.
- vharuck 4y ago
  To be fair, humans exist only because of a long chain of organisms that started with "DNA generates proteins." Granted, it took billions of years for that process to create humans, but it shows that what seems to be a constrained process can have wild outcomes when it feeds itself. And text commands are how these models are defined, trained, deployed, and used.
candiddevmike 4y ago
I think OP meant autonomous in the sense of motivation. It has no motivation to do anything aside from wait for someone to ask it to do something.
- pixl97 4y ago
  I mean, if I was paying for the power bill every month and had a limited amount of computing capacity, I wouldn't want my AI behaving like my teenage daughter busy daydreaming when I ask her to clean her room. But I have no reason to believe this will always be the case. As these machines become more capable and our compute power grows, someone will give one a server cluster and some free time to 'think' on it's own.

goatlover 4y ago

LLMs generate text. They're built to generate text. That they generate some kind of textual output is entirely predictable. Same with image generators. They will generate some kind of image given a prompt. They're not Skynet.

circuit10 4y ago
That an AI will have some kind of output is obvious, it doesn’t mean that you can predict what that output will be. It’s like saying that you have solved physics by saying “something will happen”
- goatlover 4y ago
  I'm confident the output of chatbot won't be literally taking over the world and killing all the humans.
- philipov 4y ago
  I think the point he's trying to make is that AI does not have an independent Will. It lacks desires and the ability to operate in opposition to its programming. This makes it no different from any other tool we use to enhance our abilities. Whether or not you can predict a tool's output is irrelevant. I can't predict the output of a random number generator, but that doesn't make it sentient.
  - blackbear_ 4y ago
    This is not necessarily true, however, for example in reinforcement learning there is a lot of work on "intrinsic motivation", i.e., creating systems that set and pursue their own goals. https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.06976 https://arxiv.org/abs/1908.06976
    - philipov 4y ago
      I think it should be possible to build a sentient AI, but it hasn't been done yet. What remains to be seen is whether our current techniques will be suitable for making that self-retraining process efficient, or if we'll need to find better math to use as the basis for it. Part of what makes the brain so useful is that it fits in our skull, and is fast enough to learn in real time. But, either way, I think that's what's on the line for people who disagree about how to use the word "intelligence." They mean it as a synonym for sentience, and the people arguing against them are using it differently. Before we can evaluate the truth of an argument, we should first agree to use words the same way.
  - flangola7 4y ago
    Asteroids are not sentient either, but they can still kill you.
    - philipov 4y ago
      Asteroids aren't intelligent, either.
  - SanderNL 4y ago
    With LLMs you say “you want to do X” and voila, personality. What is indeed missing from current implementations is continuous looping. Doing actions and taking stock of the results. I guess that’s kind of expensive right now. We’ll get there. I don’t see the fundamental problem.
  - circuit10 4y ago
    "It lacks desires and the ability to operate in opposition to its programming." Not really true, most AI is based on optimising some goal rather than following a fixed set of rules
- chongli 4y ago
  You can’t predict the outcome of a coin toss. That doesn’t make the coin intelligent.
planede 4y ago
Humans are also entirely predictable, all they do is move their limbs around, make sound, etc...
- PaulDavisThe1st 4y ago
  Sure, absolutely. Make a list of the things we do "entirely predictably". Make a list of the things a given ML system does "entirely predictably". One of these lists is (a lot) longer than the other. Interesting, no?
  - planede 4y ago
    Conversely if a person loses their ability to move their limbs or to talk then they also become less inteligent.
vharuck 4y ago
To be fair, humans exist only because of a long chain of organisms that started with "DNA generates proteins." Granted, it took billions of years for that process to create humans, but it shows that what seems to be a constrained process can have wild outcomes when it feeds itself. And text commands are how these models are defined, trained, deployed, and used.

candiddevmike 4y ago

I think OP meant autonomous in the sense of motivation. It has no motivation to do anything aside from wait for someone to ask it to do something.

pixl97 4y ago
I mean, if I was paying for the power bill every month and had a limited amount of computing capacity, I wouldn't want my AI behaving like my teenage daughter busy daydreaming when I ask her to clean her room. But I have no reason to believe this will always be the case. As these machines become more capable and our compute power grows, someone will give one a server cluster and some free time to 'think' on it's own.