Looking back it might appear so, but looking forward over any time horizon it is not predictable. Happy to arrange a long-term bet at even money - I'll guess yo

Looking back it might appear so, but looking forward over any time horizon it is not predictable. Happy to arrange a long-term bet at even money - I'll guess you can't predict within 3% annualized what the total returns are over any time horizon for any of the common indices. And the difference between 4% or 7% over a long time is a lot.