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I mostly agree with your comment, but I don't think we've really "bent the curve" all that much. RCP8.5 was always the highest accelerating emission scenario, n

by titzer 4y ago

I mostly agree with your comment, but I don't think we've really "bent the curve" all that much. RCP8.5 was always the highest accelerating emission scenario, not BAU (flat or low emissions growth). In fact, global emissions of CO2 have never been higher, and are still growing. The world is by no means "transitioning away from fossil fuels". We're tracking towards the middle or high middle of the emissions scenarios. We're still not pointed the right direction.

titzer 4y ago
Just for context, to justify my above comment, according to [1], 2022 emissions were, as expected, a record high, but grew less than normal, partly due to Ukraine and other energy crises. Of the 37 gigatons of CO2 output, about 0.5 of additional emissions were avoided by having renewables. That's less than 2%. Also worrying is that coal emissions actually started growing again. [1] https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2022 https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2022
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- Shaggy2000 4y ago
  [flagged]
realreality 4y ago
RCP 8.5 was never realistic, because there’s a point when accumulated disasters will limit industrial output (and therefore emissions), due to resource wars, famine, and instability. The problem is that the IPCC doesn’t factor in climatic tipping points. When we pass 2°, chances are, we’ll accelerate toward 3-5 and beyond.
- titzer 4y ago
  > When we pass 2°, chances are, we’ll accelerate toward 3-5 and beyond. Yeah, buckle up, because it looks like there's not a lot of dampening forces; only bad surprises ahead. I think the methane in permafrost is going to be very problematic.
  - Shaggy2000 4y ago
    [flagged]
    - shagmin 4y ago
      Just curious, why do you think they want to destroy nations? It seems like if banks want to destroy the economy they have the means to do more effective things than trying to get governments to embrace green policies.
ZeroGravitas 4y ago
Why would flat or low emissions growth be Business as Usual? Historically they've been roughly a straight line on a logarithmic scale: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Global_co2_emissions_graph.png https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Global_co2_emissions... If dealing with climate change is turning an oil tanker, then we've started to brake and turn, but are still moving mostly in the original direction. Which isn't great, but is better than accelerating into the rocks ahead.

by titzer 4y ago

titzer 4y ago

Just for context, to justify my above comment, according to [1], 2022 emissions were, as expected, a record high, but grew less than normal, partly due to Ukraine and other energy crises. Of the 37 gigatons of CO2 output, about 0.5 of additional emissions were avoided by having renewables. That's less than 2%. Also worrying is that coal emissions actually started growing again. [1] https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2022 https://www.iea.org/reports/co2-emissions-in-2022

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
Shaggy2000 4y ago
[flagged]

realreality 4y ago

RCP 8.5 was never realistic, because there’s a point when accumulated disasters will limit industrial output (and therefore emissions), due to resource wars, famine, and instability. The problem is that the IPCC doesn’t factor in climatic tipping points. When we pass 2°, chances are, we’ll accelerate toward 3-5 and beyond.

titzer 4y ago
> When we pass 2°, chances are, we’ll accelerate toward 3-5 and beyond. Yeah, buckle up, because it looks like there's not a lot of dampening forces; only bad surprises ahead. I think the methane in permafrost is going to be very problematic.
- Shaggy2000 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - shagmin 4y ago
    Just curious, why do you think they want to destroy nations? It seems like if banks want to destroy the economy they have the means to do more effective things than trying to get governments to embrace green policies.

ZeroGravitas 4y ago

Why would flat or low emissions growth be Business as Usual? Historically they've been roughly a straight line on a logarithmic scale: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Global_co2_emissions_graph.png https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Global_co2_emissions... If dealing with climate change is turning an oil tanker, then we've started to brake and turn, but are still moving mostly in the original direction. Which isn't great, but is better than accelerating into the rocks ahead.