6 ms·

This chart is even better: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS

floren 4y ago
Just a few more points and we'll be back at the levels of the late 90s, a period of time most millennials associate with prosperity and happiness (possibly because we were 8 years old).
- Arrath 4y ago
  Just plop me back in front of the tv with an n64 and a pile of animorphs books. This adult responsibility stuff has gotten old.
- voisin 4y ago
  I think there is some path dependency to prosperity and happiness being at this level coming off the 80s at higher rates would mean that sure rates were higher than now but people had bought assets at much lower prices (because higher past rates pushed values down). Now we’ve got the opposite where everyone blew their brains out at high asset prices because there was no interest rate / capital creation discipline AND now we’ve got higher rates so we are doubly punished.
- leoh 4y ago
  We’re just about there, no? 5.51% in 1998; 5% as of today
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > the levels of the late 90s We're going into a period of elevated military risk and spending. In the 1990s, we were exiting one.
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    > We're going into a period of elevated military risk and spending. In the 1990s, we were exiting one. That was certainly a common-though-mistaken impression early in the year 1990; it wouldn't last through the year, and it definitely doesn't describe the late 1990s (when the US was a direct participant in the most significant European conflict between WW2 and the present, which was also where the renewed Cold War at which the later Clinton “Reset Button” was directed began, simultaneously with escalating threats & conflict in and beyond the Middle East involving Iraq, Hezbollah, and al-Qaeda.)
    - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
      > a common-though-mistaken impression early in the year 1990 American military spending as a fraction of GDP plummeted in the 90s [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States#/media/File:U.S_-_China_-_Russia,_Military_Spending.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_...
- acchow 4y ago
  Wasn’t the late 90s a period of prosperity because it was the upswing of a bubble that ended with the dotcom crash? The rising part of a bubble always has massive economic growth. It used to be better for everyone when there wasn’t a permanent housing shortage
  - wolverine876 4y ago
    It was prosperous because of (IMHO): * Political stability: As we are re-learning, that is necessary for everything. * Economic stability * Large productivity improvements due to the IT revolution The bubble was only one small part of it for one sector of the economy, afaik. When it popped, we didn't reset to 1992; most or even all of the gains remained (was there even a quarter of negative GDP?).
    - sangnoir 4y ago
      Adding to your points * Globalization/off-shoring * The west had growing share of higher-paying service jobs * New markets in Eastern europe and China * Increasing disposable income at home. The rust-belt wasn't rusty yet.
      - wolverine876 4y ago
        Good points; I wasn't very thorough at all. > Increasing disposable income at home. The rust-belt wasn't rusty yet. This one I don't know about. The term 'rust belt' goes back to the 1980s.

Just a few more points and we'll be back at the levels of the late 90s, a period of time most millennials associate with prosperity and happiness (possibly because we were 8 years old).

Arrath 4y ago
Just plop me back in front of the tv with an n64 and a pile of animorphs books. This adult responsibility stuff has gotten old.
voisin 4y ago
I think there is some path dependency to prosperity and happiness being at this level coming off the 80s at higher rates would mean that sure rates were higher than now but people had bought assets at much lower prices (because higher past rates pushed values down). Now we’ve got the opposite where everyone blew their brains out at high asset prices because there was no interest rate / capital creation discipline AND now we’ve got higher rates so we are doubly punished.
leoh 4y ago
We’re just about there, no? 5.51% in 1998; 5% as of today
JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> the levels of the late 90s We're going into a period of elevated military risk and spending. In the 1990s, we were exiting one.
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  > We're going into a period of elevated military risk and spending. In the 1990s, we were exiting one. That was certainly a common-though-mistaken impression early in the year 1990; it wouldn't last through the year, and it definitely doesn't describe the late 1990s (when the US was a direct participant in the most significant European conflict between WW2 and the present, which was also where the renewed Cold War at which the later Clinton “Reset Button” was directed began, simultaneously with escalating threats & conflict in and beyond the Middle East involving Iraq, Hezbollah, and al-Qaeda.)
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > a common-though-mistaken impression early in the year 1990 American military spending as a fraction of GDP plummeted in the 90s [1]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States#/media/File:U.S_-_China_-_Russia,_Military_Spending.svg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_...
acchow 4y ago
Wasn’t the late 90s a period of prosperity because it was the upswing of a bubble that ended with the dotcom crash? The rising part of a bubble always has massive economic growth. It used to be better for everyone when there wasn’t a permanent housing shortage
- wolverine876 4y ago
  It was prosperous because of (IMHO): * Political stability: As we are re-learning, that is necessary for everything. * Economic stability * Large productivity improvements due to the IT revolution The bubble was only one small part of it for one sector of the economy, afaik. When it popped, we didn't reset to 1992; most or even all of the gains remained (was there even a quarter of negative GDP?).
  - sangnoir 4y ago
    Adding to your points * Globalization/off-shoring * The west had growing share of higher-paying service jobs * New markets in Eastern europe and China * Increasing disposable income at home. The rust-belt wasn't rusty yet.
    - wolverine876 4y ago
      Good points; I wasn't very thorough at all. > Increasing disposable income at home. The rust-belt wasn't rusty yet. This one I don't know about. The term 'rust belt' goes back to the 1980s.