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Misplaced optimism is deadly. Climate change is one area where we're in dire need of realists. 1. People need to be aware of the science of climate change. Som

Misplaced optimism is deadly. Climate change is one area where we're in dire need of realists. 1. People need to be aware of the science of climate change. Some of it is quite basic and has been known since the 19th century. 2. People need to be aware of the largest CO2 sources. 3. People need to be aware of human psychology and how people respond to threats. To wit, look what happened with toilet paper during the pandemic. Anybody who has spent any time studying people knew that was totally predictable - yet the people who should have known better seem to have been taken by surprise by so many people buying years' worth of toilet paper. 4. Likewise, people need to be aware of how civilization works. How have civilizations collapsed before? What were the causes of collapse? How did human psychology expedite the collapse? How did human psychology ensure the collapse couldn't be avoided? 5. Finally, what are the causes of war? There's a high probability the "declare a victory and go home" crowd are going to be caught off-guard. Even worse, their kids and grandkids are going to take the brunt of their wishful thinking. Global warming isn't likely to end the human race (sure, there's always the chance, but it's not likely). What's far more likely is the civilization we know today will undergo a dramatic, i.e. stressful for everyone involved, change. It may even be a change for the better (okay, now my optimism is showing!). But we're just fooling ourselves if we think the change won't have significant impacts to everyone enduring it. There may be a light at the end of the tunnel but not everybody is going to make it through the tunnel. That's the hard reality we face.

at_a_remove 4y ago
Most people are pretty "down" on life extension, from a social consequences phase, but one consequence that might be interesting is having to deal with the end results of policies fifty years hence. Government archives and court records get unsealed after decades and the culprits are largely ignored: they're probably dead or so incapacitated that they would not stand trial. Imagine, though, that it wasn't just elderly guards of some concentration camp being prosecuted for the crimes of previous centuries, but people responsible for Tuskeegee, for telling us that cigarettes are good for our health, for burying the truth about climate change. Humans are short-sighted, although not as much as compared to the other animals, but imagine how much further we might look if we couldn't just count on dying out of investigations. Perhaps some of those nuns might be called to account for those mass unmarked graves of children and infants behind "care homes" in Canada and Ireland and so on.
- kwhitefoot 4y ago
  > magine how much further we might look if we couldn't just count on dying out of investigations. Those in power would just extend the limit.
- ratboy666 4y ago
  Your comment was extremely offensive. Let me take but one example: How many unmarked graves of children and infants behind "care homes" in Canada are there? How does that have to do with nuns? (yes, Tuskeegee, and syphilis is a known example of very bad behavior. However, that does not include Canada or Ireland) Please apologize for that comment. Or, back it up with data.
  - snozolli 4y ago
    Your comment was extremely offensive. If you think you're offended, imagine how the children and their families felt. https://www.npr.org/2021/07/01/1012100926/graves-found-at-new-site-canadian-indigenous-group-says https://www.npr.org/2021/07/01/1012100926/graves-found-at-ne... A Canadian Indigenous group said Wednesday a search using ground-penetrating radar has found 182 human remains in unmarked graves at a site near a former Catholic Church-run residential school that housed Indigenous children taken from their families. https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2021/06/24/bodies-found-indigenous-school-canada-240926 https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2021/06/24/... Over 600 bodies found at another Catholic school for Indigenous children in Canada https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/03/mass-grave-of-babies-and-children-found-at-tuam-orphanage-in-ireland https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/03/mass-grave-of-... A mass grave containing the remains of babies and children has been discovered at a former Catholic care home in Ireland where it has been alleged up to 800 died, government-appointed investigators said on Friday.
    - ratboy666 4y ago
      Let us take the word as published by the CBC (pick another source). The idea (tldr) is that "At this point, no mass grave has been discovered, but more than a thousand potential unmarked graves have already been located, with many more Indigenous Nations just beginning their investigations." https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-residential-schools-unmarked-graves-denialism-1.6474429 https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-residential-schools-... Like I said, offensive, and apologies are in order. I do not know the issue in Ireland. Since I am a first-generation immigrant to Canada, I have no stake in this. But "denialism"? Since when is a demand for proof a denial? Especially for something as sensitive as making the accusation that a Religion is Genocidal. I am not Catholic. I am not Muslim. Nor am I Jewish (no, I am NOT going to bring my own faith into this discussion). But I would not level that accusation against any believer. Now to continue: https://globalnews.ca/news/7996606/cranbrook-residential-school-graves-chief/ https://globalnews.ca/news/7996606/cranbrook-residential-sch... Yes, people died. Quite a few from TB. and... "The concern for Pierre is that the term “unmarked grave” is now so closely associated with victims of Canada’s residential school system. “To just assume that every unmarked grave inside a graveyard is already tied to a residential school, we’ve got to be a little bit more respectful of our people who are buried in our graveyards,” Pierre said. The graveyard near Cranbrook originally dates back to Christian missionaries who settled in the area in the early 1800s, prior to the construction of the school. A church and a hospital were also built in the area. It eventually became a graveyard for the community, which it remains to this day." There is no suggestion of "foul play" here. Wooden markers will disintegrate. Mass grave? Burial yard? Yes, words do matter.
MaxHoppersGhost 4y ago
We’re in need of pragmatists. There is an optimal balance between climate action and business as usual. Calls for extreme curtailment of fossil fuel usage for example would lower quality of life beyond what global warming will do.
- jltsiren 4y ago
  There are many optimal balances, depending on how you choose to discount long-term outcomes. Also, as Europe has just learned, sudden forced changes to energy infrastructure are less destructive than many people would have predicted.
- time_to_smile 4y ago
  > would lower quality of life beyond what global warming will do. Source on this? Climate crisis could quite possibly lead to extinction of humans and most life on Earth [0]. Now I do want to emphasized the word could. Extinction events are certainly "on the table", but certainly not a certainty. However this is the true essence of the reason why we'll never stop climate change. The immediate cost of stopping or even slowing is high, and certain. The cost of not stopping it, is often considered higher, but is always probabilistic and less certain in nature. Compounding this is that the more we rely on non-renewable hydro-carbons, the more painful it is to reverse or even slow our march towards catastrophic climate change, while at the same time the cost of not stopping it becomes less uncertain. For example in 1900 it would have been incredibly easy to slow economic progress in order to prevent climate change, but the uncertainty around the cost of not slowing progress was very high, so the perceived expected value of stopping our march toward climate change was much lower than the present time expected cost. It is strange to see calls for moderate pragmatism when our current state has been accelerating CO2 emissions. We're, quite literally, stepping on the gas to meet whatever future awaits us. 0. See Peter D. Ward's "Under a Green Sky" for one example scenario.
  - MaxHoppersGhost 4y ago
    The climate crisis won’t lead to human extinction. Hard to take anything you say seriously after that first statement.

at_a_remove 4y ago

Most people are pretty "down" on life extension, from a social consequences phase, but one consequence that might be interesting is having to deal with the end results of policies fifty years hence. Government archives and court records get unsealed after decades and the culprits are largely ignored: they're probably dead or so incapacitated that they would not stand trial. Imagine, though, that it wasn't just elderly guards of some concentration camp being prosecuted for the crimes of previous centuries, but people responsible for Tuskeegee, for telling us that cigarettes are good for our health, for burying the truth about climate change. Humans are short-sighted, although not as much as compared to the other animals, but imagine how much further we might look if we couldn't just count on dying out of investigations. Perhaps some of those nuns might be called to account for those mass unmarked graves of children and infants behind "care homes" in Canada and Ireland and so on.

kwhitefoot 4y ago
> magine how much further we might look if we couldn't just count on dying out of investigations. Those in power would just extend the limit.
ratboy666 4y ago
Your comment was extremely offensive. Let me take but one example: How many unmarked graves of children and infants behind "care homes" in Canada are there? How does that have to do with nuns? (yes, Tuskeegee, and syphilis is a known example of very bad behavior. However, that does not include Canada or Ireland) Please apologize for that comment. Or, back it up with data.
- snozolli 4y ago
  Your comment was extremely offensive. If you think you're offended, imagine how the children and their families felt. https://www.npr.org/2021/07/01/1012100926/graves-found-at-new-site-canadian-indigenous-group-says https://www.npr.org/2021/07/01/1012100926/graves-found-at-ne... A Canadian Indigenous group said Wednesday a search using ground-penetrating radar has found 182 human remains in unmarked graves at a site near a former Catholic Church-run residential school that housed Indigenous children taken from their families. https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2021/06/24/bodies-found-indigenous-school-canada-240926 https://www.americamagazine.org/politics-society/2021/06/24/... Over 600 bodies found at another Catholic school for Indigenous children in Canada https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/03/mass-grave-of-babies-and-children-found-at-tuam-orphanage-in-ireland https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/03/mass-grave-of-... A mass grave containing the remains of babies and children has been discovered at a former Catholic care home in Ireland where it has been alleged up to 800 died, government-appointed investigators said on Friday.
  - ratboy666 4y ago
    Let us take the word as published by the CBC (pick another source). The idea (tldr) is that "At this point, no mass grave has been discovered, but more than a thousand potential unmarked graves have already been located, with many more Indigenous Nations just beginning their investigations." https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-residential-schools-unmarked-graves-denialism-1.6474429 https://www.cbc.ca/news/opinion/opinion-residential-schools-... Like I said, offensive, and apologies are in order. I do not know the issue in Ireland. Since I am a first-generation immigrant to Canada, I have no stake in this. But "denialism"? Since when is a demand for proof a denial? Especially for something as sensitive as making the accusation that a Religion is Genocidal. I am not Catholic. I am not Muslim. Nor am I Jewish (no, I am NOT going to bring my own faith into this discussion). But I would not level that accusation against any believer. Now to continue: https://globalnews.ca/news/7996606/cranbrook-residential-school-graves-chief/ https://globalnews.ca/news/7996606/cranbrook-residential-sch... Yes, people died. Quite a few from TB. and... "The concern for Pierre is that the term “unmarked grave” is now so closely associated with victims of Canada’s residential school system. “To just assume that every unmarked grave inside a graveyard is already tied to a residential school, we’ve got to be a little bit more respectful of our people who are buried in our graveyards,” Pierre said. The graveyard near Cranbrook originally dates back to Christian missionaries who settled in the area in the early 1800s, prior to the construction of the school. A church and a hospital were also built in the area. It eventually became a graveyard for the community, which it remains to this day." There is no suggestion of "foul play" here. Wooden markers will disintegrate. Mass grave? Burial yard? Yes, words do matter.

MaxHoppersGhost 4y ago

We’re in need of pragmatists. There is an optimal balance between climate action and business as usual. Calls for extreme curtailment of fossil fuel usage for example would lower quality of life beyond what global warming will do.

jltsiren 4y ago
There are many optimal balances, depending on how you choose to discount long-term outcomes. Also, as Europe has just learned, sudden forced changes to energy infrastructure are less destructive than many people would have predicted.
time_to_smile 4y ago
> would lower quality of life beyond what global warming will do. Source on this? Climate crisis could quite possibly lead to extinction of humans and most life on Earth [0]. Now I do want to emphasized the word could. Extinction events are certainly "on the table", but certainly not a certainty. However this is the true essence of the reason why we'll never stop climate change. The immediate cost of stopping or even slowing is high, and certain. The cost of not stopping it, is often considered higher, but is always probabilistic and less certain in nature. Compounding this is that the more we rely on non-renewable hydro-carbons, the more painful it is to reverse or even slow our march towards catastrophic climate change, while at the same time the cost of not stopping it becomes less uncertain. For example in 1900 it would have been incredibly easy to slow economic progress in order to prevent climate change, but the uncertainty around the cost of not slowing progress was very high, so the perceived expected value of stopping our march toward climate change was much lower than the present time expected cost. It is strange to see calls for moderate pragmatism when our current state has been accelerating CO2 emissions. We're, quite literally, stepping on the gas to meet whatever future awaits us. 0. See Peter D. Ward's "Under a Green Sky" for one example scenario.
- MaxHoppersGhost 4y ago
  The climate crisis won’t lead to human extinction. Hard to take anything you say seriously after that first statement.