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Listen to this man. This is the fate of everyone on this site. If you think you're exempt because you're awesome, I'm talking most of all to you. Get out of th

by ootachi 15y ago

Listen to this man. This is the fate of everyone on this site. If you think you're exempt because you're awesome, I'm talking most of all to you. Get out of the tech industry while you still can. There are no jobs in this industry for anyone, even the skilled.

tony_vivaldi 15y ago
Part of the deal is, you don't need very many people to do cool stuff anymore. Instagram is serving probably around 20 million users right now with 7 employes. Facebook is serving 800 million users with 2000 employees. Even if there are 1000 awesome startups, each one of them may only ever need 20 employees.
ShabbyDoo 15y ago
I get calls all the time, and I live in Cleveland. Where's this lack of jobs you're talking about?
jerf 15y ago
This is an absolutely bizarre claim in light of the fact that the tech industry is the only one in a hiring frenzy through an economy so weak that historians may well end up calling it the second Great Depression, and that programmers are just about the only people left who have a plausible explanation for how robots won't simply take their jobs in 30 years. (Or perhaps rather, the potent combo of robots and their programmers.) I'm in this industry and staying because I'm willing to bet with my feet that you're not just wrong, you're dead wrong. To my mind, the question is what the non-tech jobs will be in 20 years. What do you do? Are you getting out of the tech industry, or merely scoring cheap social posturing points with some fashionable cynicism? Are you taking your own advice, or just posting ad naseum with no actual belief behind it?
- ootachi 15y ago
  "Programmers are just about the only people left who have a plausible explanation for how robots won't simply take their jobs in 30 years." Unfortunately, they lack a similarly plausible explanation for how cheap offshore labor won't simply take their jobs in fewer than 30 years.
  - jerf 15y ago
    Sure there is; economics 101. Offshore labor won't be cheaper in 30 years. In fact the economic advantage has already largely dissipated and it's already not cheaper, which is why you don't hear anybody talking about this anymore. The whole "we're all gonna lose our tech jobs to the cheap foreigners" scare is all very 2008; it has failed to happen, and it will continue to fail to happen because equilibrium has been reached and will not rapidly change because there's few to no new markets to suddenly emerge. Sadly, very few people actually understand economics 101 and simply can't deal with the fact that prices react to things rather than staying static forever. I also observe your uncareful dodge around my questions. May I simply assume the worst, then?
    - ootachi 15y ago
      "In fact the economic advantage has already largely dissipated and it's already not cheaper, which is why you don't hear anybody talking about this anymore. The whole "we're all gonna lose our tech jobs to the cheap foreigners" scare is all very 2008; it has failed to happen, and it will continue to fail to happen because equilibrium has been reached and will not rapidly change because there's few to no new markets to suddenly emerge." Wrong. Yahoo!, for example, has been continuously shedding Bay Area jobs and moving them to Bangalore. Right now, in 2011/2012, they are laying off workers in Silicon Valley and hiring in India. Expect other companies to follow suit. It is certainly much cheaper to hire in India. Depending on experience, you can get three to five programmers there for every one in the Bay Area. They're just as skilled.
      - jerf 15y ago
        So what are you doing about it?

by ootachi 15y ago

tony_vivaldi 15y ago

Part of the deal is, you don't need very many people to do cool stuff anymore. Instagram is serving probably around 20 million users right now with 7 employes. Facebook is serving 800 million users with 2000 employees. Even if there are 1000 awesome startups, each one of them may only ever need 20 employees.

ShabbyDoo 15y ago

I get calls all the time, and I live in Cleveland. Where's this lack of jobs you're talking about?

jerf 15y ago

This is an absolutely bizarre claim in light of the fact that the tech industry is the only one in a hiring frenzy through an economy so weak that historians may well end up calling it the second Great Depression, and that programmers are just about the only people left who have a plausible explanation for how robots won't simply take their jobs in 30 years. (Or perhaps rather, the potent combo of robots and their programmers.) I'm in this industry and staying because I'm willing to bet with my feet that you're not just wrong, you're dead wrong. To my mind, the question is what the non-tech jobs will be in 20 years. What do you do? Are you getting out of the tech industry, or merely scoring cheap social posturing points with some fashionable cynicism? Are you taking your own advice, or just posting ad naseum with no actual belief behind it?

ootachi 15y ago
"Programmers are just about the only people left who have a plausible explanation for how robots won't simply take their jobs in 30 years." Unfortunately, they lack a similarly plausible explanation for how cheap offshore labor won't simply take their jobs in fewer than 30 years.
- jerf 15y ago
  Sure there is; economics 101. Offshore labor won't be cheaper in 30 years. In fact the economic advantage has already largely dissipated and it's already not cheaper, which is why you don't hear anybody talking about this anymore. The whole "we're all gonna lose our tech jobs to the cheap foreigners" scare is all very 2008; it has failed to happen, and it will continue to fail to happen because equilibrium has been reached and will not rapidly change because there's few to no new markets to suddenly emerge. Sadly, very few people actually understand economics 101 and simply can't deal with the fact that prices react to things rather than staying static forever. I also observe your uncareful dodge around my questions. May I simply assume the worst, then?
  - ootachi 15y ago
    "In fact the economic advantage has already largely dissipated and it's already not cheaper, which is why you don't hear anybody talking about this anymore. The whole "we're all gonna lose our tech jobs to the cheap foreigners" scare is all very 2008; it has failed to happen, and it will continue to fail to happen because equilibrium has been reached and will not rapidly change because there's few to no new markets to suddenly emerge." Wrong. Yahoo!, for example, has been continuously shedding Bay Area jobs and moving them to Bangalore. Right now, in 2011/2012, they are laying off workers in Silicon Valley and hiring in India. Expect other companies to follow suit. It is certainly much cheaper to hire in India. Depending on experience, you can get three to five programmers there for every one in the Bay Area. They're just as skilled.
    - jerf 15y ago
      So what are you doing about it?