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I am just going to take a minute to point out that 18 months ago I said the inflation wasn't transitory, it was long term, and everyone told me I was crazy when

I am just going to take a minute to point out that 18 months ago I said the inflation wasn't transitory, it was long term, and everyone told me I was crazy when I said the government was lying about it being transitory.

ellisv 4y ago
I don’t think the Fed anticipated the war in Ukraine.
- kneebonian 4y ago
  This was during the war in the Ukraine, which was one of the excuses people gave for inflation being "tranistory" and that things would be sorted out soon.
  - ellisv 4y ago
    Sorry, I thought you made your prediction 18 months ago – the generally accepted start of the invasion is 2022-02-24. If your prediction was after, then yes I agree the Fed should have accounted better for the global landscape.
- rqtwteye 4y ago
  Blaming the current situation on the Ukraine War reminds me of the crash in 2001. Things were going downhill already long before but when 9/11 happened, suddenly everybody blamed the crash on 9/11. I am pretty sure the current situation would have happened without the Ukraine war. Maybe a little different but the writing was on the wall long before.
  - KingOfCoders 4y ago
    "Things were going downhill already long before" Inflation in Germany stayed <5% since the beginning of the 90s, most of the time <2% for 30 years (should be even smaller because Germany doesn't use chained dollars), then spiked to 10% with the invasion of Ukraine. So it's not clear what you have been referring to.
    - rqtwteye 4y ago
      I didn’t phrase this correctly. Things weren’t going downhill before the Ukraine war. But it was pretty clear that printing enormous amounts of money while running record deficits by governments couldn’t go on forever.
  - edmundsauto 4y ago
    It’s possible, but since we don’t have the counterfactual, it’s probably more accurate to say that another precipitating event could have occurred to lead us to approximately a similar situation. However, because responses vary so much, even due to randomness, it’s hard to predict the results. If a different 9/11 had happened - say the perpetrators were Russian - I would agree that a similarly large change in society would have occurred. We probably would have done the same crap with the TSA. However, it’s less likely that the US would have invaded Afghanistan, and possibly Iraq (because every hypothetical is less likely than the 100% probability we have now). Just because something else would have happened doesn’t mean the response would be anywhere near similar.
  - ellisv 4y ago
    My view is that inflation was exacerbated by the sequence of events. The Russian invasion of Ukraine didn't cause inflation but disrupted the ability of the Fed to effectively manage it. That's not to say that inflation would have been transitory. I just think the current situation is worse because of it.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
- ridgered4 4y ago
  I remember Biden going on TV and blaming high YoY inflation on the Ukraine war when it had been going for about 2 weeks. Before that a lot of transitory smoke was being blown up everyone's backside.
rybosworld 4y ago
Who called you crazy?
- ovulator 4y ago
  He said everyone did, all 8 billion of us.

ellisv 4y ago

I don’t think the Fed anticipated the war in Ukraine.

kneebonian 4y ago
This was during the war in the Ukraine, which was one of the excuses people gave for inflation being "tranistory" and that things would be sorted out soon.
- ellisv 4y ago
  Sorry, I thought you made your prediction 18 months ago – the generally accepted start of the invasion is 2022-02-24. If your prediction was after, then yes I agree the Fed should have accounted better for the global landscape.
rqtwteye 4y ago
Blaming the current situation on the Ukraine War reminds me of the crash in 2001. Things were going downhill already long before but when 9/11 happened, suddenly everybody blamed the crash on 9/11. I am pretty sure the current situation would have happened without the Ukraine war. Maybe a little different but the writing was on the wall long before.
- KingOfCoders 4y ago
  "Things were going downhill already long before" Inflation in Germany stayed <5% since the beginning of the 90s, most of the time <2% for 30 years (should be even smaller because Germany doesn't use chained dollars), then spiked to 10% with the invasion of Ukraine. So it's not clear what you have been referring to.
  - rqtwteye 4y ago
    I didn’t phrase this correctly. Things weren’t going downhill before the Ukraine war. But it was pretty clear that printing enormous amounts of money while running record deficits by governments couldn’t go on forever.
- edmundsauto 4y ago
  It’s possible, but since we don’t have the counterfactual, it’s probably more accurate to say that another precipitating event could have occurred to lead us to approximately a similar situation. However, because responses vary so much, even due to randomness, it’s hard to predict the results. If a different 9/11 had happened - say the perpetrators were Russian - I would agree that a similarly large change in society would have occurred. We probably would have done the same crap with the TSA. However, it’s less likely that the US would have invaded Afghanistan, and possibly Iraq (because every hypothetical is less likely than the 100% probability we have now). Just because something else would have happened doesn’t mean the response would be anywhere near similar.
- ellisv 4y ago
  My view is that inflation was exacerbated by the sequence of events. The Russian invasion of Ukraine didn't cause inflation but disrupted the ability of the Fed to effectively manage it. That's not to say that inflation would have been transitory. I just think the current situation is worse because of it.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
ridgered4 4y ago
I remember Biden going on TV and blaming high YoY inflation on the Ukraine war when it had been going for about 2 weeks. Before that a lot of transitory smoke was being blown up everyone's backside.

rybosworld 4y ago

Who called you crazy?

ovulator 4y ago
He said everyone did, all 8 billion of us.