4 ms·

It's worth mentioning Moore's Law, which was actually a short term prediction, arguably turned into a business goal. The "law" states that the number of transis

It's worth mentioning Moore's Law, which was actually a short term prediction, arguably turned into a business goal. The "law" states that the number of transistors in integrated circuits (like CPUs) will be doubled every two years (or 18 months by some variations). It wasn't entirely made up, as it was mostly based on advances in manufacturing technology, but it was a prediction made in 1965 that was supposed to hold for ten years. However reality kept up with this prediction for far longer than anticipated until the physical limits of silicon miniaturization became apparent in recent (ish) years, until the mid 00's (maybe later?).

vlovich123 4y ago
I think it technically kept going into the early 2010s due to additional advancements and technically it hasn’t yet stopped but people are generally skeptical that TSMC and Samsung can keep this party going (a party that seems to have stopped for Intel itself apparently). Dennard scaling though did end in the mid 00s and this impacted Koomey’s law which talks about performance/watt and saw a similar petering out. Apparently the bound at even a conservative rate puts the thermodynamic doubling limit at 2080. After that we’ll have to really hope smart people have figured out how to make reversible computing a thing.
- logi2mus 4y ago
  lots of (not only european) public funding made progress to euv of asml, zeiss and other possible.
- btilly 4y ago
  CPU clock speed stopped improving slightly sooner than that. Performance continued to improve, but they switched from making single threaded code faster to adding more cores. This was a bit of a bummer for programmers working in single threaded languages who found that their code stopped getting faster for free.
bombcar 4y ago
Moore's law is almost the opposite of Metcalfe's - Metcalfe's encourages you to build out the network as fast as possible to get the most value; Moore's implies you should wait as long as possible before buying processing power to get the most you can.
jeffbee 4y ago
Moore’s law isn’t even dead. It says that the number of transistors per dollar rises at that rate, which is still going. Commenters tend to omit the cost component of Moore’s remark.
chx 4y ago
Moore's law is still going , or so I thought. It's Dennard scaling that stopped around 2006. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/transistors-per-microprocessor https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/transistors-per-microproc...
- monocasa 4y ago
  Sorta. It didn't hit a hard boundary per se, but SRAM has practically stopped scaling and even random logic is only scaling at about 1.5x every three years or so. Like a lot of cases it's an s-curve, and we're on the other side of the bend at this point.

vlovich123 4y ago

I think it technically kept going into the early 2010s due to additional advancements and technically it hasn’t yet stopped but people are generally skeptical that TSMC and Samsung can keep this party going (a party that seems to have stopped for Intel itself apparently). Dennard scaling though did end in the mid 00s and this impacted Koomey’s law which talks about performance/watt and saw a similar petering out. Apparently the bound at even a conservative rate puts the thermodynamic doubling limit at 2080. After that we’ll have to really hope smart people have figured out how to make reversible computing a thing.

logi2mus 4y ago
lots of (not only european) public funding made progress to euv of asml, zeiss and other possible.
btilly 4y ago
CPU clock speed stopped improving slightly sooner than that. Performance continued to improve, but they switched from making single threaded code faster to adding more cores. This was a bit of a bummer for programmers working in single threaded languages who found that their code stopped getting faster for free.

bombcar 4y ago

Moore's law is almost the opposite of Metcalfe's - Metcalfe's encourages you to build out the network as fast as possible to get the most value; Moore's implies you should wait as long as possible before buying processing power to get the most you can.

jeffbee 4y ago

Moore’s law isn’t even dead. It says that the number of transistors per dollar rises at that rate, which is still going. Commenters tend to omit the cost component of Moore’s remark.

chx 4y ago

Moore's law is still going , or so I thought. It's Dennard scaling that stopped around 2006. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/transistors-per-microprocessor https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/transistors-per-microproc...

monocasa 4y ago
Sorta. It didn't hit a hard boundary per se, but SRAM has practically stopped scaling and even random logic is only scaling at about 1.5x every three years or so. Like a lot of cases it's an s-curve, and we're on the other side of the bend at this point.