4 ms·
> that printing so much Please stop with this. It was not the Fed's actions that caused a high CPI. They did the exact same thing post-GFC and nothing happened
by throw0101b 4y ago
> that printing so much
Please stop with this. It was not the Fed's actions that caused a high CPI. They did the exact same thing post-GFC and nothing happened despite much tearing of garments:
> We believe the Federal Reserve's large-scale asset purchase plan (so-called "quantitative easing") should be reconsidered and discontinued. We do not believe such a plan is necessary or advisable under current circumstances. The planned asset purchases risk currency debasement and inflation, and we do not think they will achieve the Fed's objective of promoting employment.
* https://economics21.org/html/open-letter-ben-bernanke-287.html https://economics21.org/html/open-letter-ben-bernanke-287.ht...
The difference this time was a huge geopolitical event which drove up prices (a huge driver of the CPI was energy prices: remember the GOP going on and on about gas prices?), a lot of COVID assistance, post-COVID stimulus, and supply chain issues:
> Inflation has remained at levels well above the Federal Reserve’s inflation goal of 2% for over a year. Separating the underlying data from the personal consumption expenditures price index into supply- versus demand-driven categories reveals that supply factors explain about half of the run-up in current inflation levels. Demand factors are responsible for about one-third, with the remainder resulting from ambiguous factors. While supply disruptions are widely expected to ease this year, this outcome is highly uncertain.
* https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2022/june/how-much-do-supply-and-demand-drive-inflation/ https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economi...
The COVID measure were one-shot deals and were, in fact, predicted to raise inflation for a short (1-2 year) period, analogously to sudden Korean War spending (versus the continued spending for Vietnam):
* https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/inflation-fears-and-biden-stimulus-look-korean-war-not-vietnam https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/in...
The main thing they failed to predict was the invasion of Ukraine, which added to the other three conditions. Sure; perhaps the Fed could have started tightening sooner.
But what is the counter-factual of the last 2-3 years? No COVID assistance measure so people have no money when things were on lockdown? No help in getting the economy started post-COVID? What would have the (un)employment rate been? Does anyone remember the long post-GFC slog to get everyone back to work (because the GOP wouldn't give Obama proper stimulus dollars)?