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Put a shield around the most vulnerable and their carers, until there was a vaccine for them and leave everyone else, especially the young, to continue their li

Put a shield around the most vulnerable and their carers, until there was a vaccine for them and leave everyone else, especially the young, to continue their lives as normal. Easily said now, however.

dageshi 4y ago
Can't see that as ever working. There'd be no practical way to shield the vulnerable or the carers and beyond that if it's left to run rampant in the wider population eventually the medical system is overwhelmed and collapses.
- okeuro49 4y ago
  > There'd be no practical way to shield the vulnerable or the carers The shielding system was an official policy in the UK https://www.local.gov.uk/sites/default/files/documents/SHIELDING%20GUIDANCE%20AND%20FAQS%20COMBINED%20-%2024%20APRIL%202020.pdf https://www.local.gov.uk/sites/default/files/documents/SHIEL... > left to run rampant in the wider population eventually the medical system is overwhelmed and collapses. The risk of hospitalisation was low around the 30s and younger.
  - dageshi 4y ago
    > The shielding system was an official policy in the UK Yeah, it still didn't and doesn't work though. Carers will have families, they'll have children in school, they'll potentially have more than one job. You can't shield the "carers" so you can't shield the vulnerable outside of a wider scale lockdown. Lockdown was the only thing that stopped case numbers going up till the vaccine came along. > The risk of hospitalisation was low around the 30s and younger. The average age in the UK is 40. So pretty much half the population would need to completely isolate from the other half while the younger half lived their lives as normal. yeah, not going to happen.
    - okeuro49 4y ago
      > Lockdown was the only thing that stopped case numbers going up till the vaccine came along. Really? The graphs I have seen show cases declining even before lockdowns were imposed. > The average age in the UK is 40. So pretty much half the population would need to completely isolate from the other half while the younger half lived their lives as normal. The advice would have been the same, work from homes where possible. There was already the concept of "bubbles".
      - dageshi 4y ago
        > Really? The graphs I have seen show cases declining even before lockdowns were imposed. Likely because people were voluntarily locking down. Unless you deal with schools, there are no "bubbles" or not ones that really work. Do you send teachers into schools who are in the vulnerable group? Or do you close the schools? If you close the schools you may as well do a full lockdown because so many people will have to be at home to look after their children. The idea you can lockdown half the population by age just doesn't work because society doesn't separate itself out neatly by age.
    - robertlagrant 4y ago
      The age of 40 is interesting - is it from the Economist's model[0]? I don't know how accurate it is, but I would say comorbidities look a lot more serious than a general age-based approach. [0] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/13/our-covid-19-model-estimates-odds-of-hospitalisation-and-death https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/13/our-covi...
      - mrguyorama 4y ago
        People always point to "comorbidities" but many of the comorbidities in covid's case were things like "being overweight", you know, most of the population?
        robertlagrant 4y ago
        I'm not sure how globally applicable that point is, although it could be. Do you have a link to any stats? How do you define "overweight"?
  - SideQuark 4y ago
    And the UK had one of the highest COVID death rates in first world countries.
- pbmonster 4y ago
  It's approximately what Sweden did. By most accounts, it worked better than what it's neighbors did (which more closely resembles what most states in the US did).

dageshi 4y ago

Can't see that as ever working. There'd be no practical way to shield the vulnerable or the carers and beyond that if it's left to run rampant in the wider population eventually the medical system is overwhelmed and collapses.

okeuro49 4y ago
> There'd be no practical way to shield the vulnerable or the carers The shielding system was an official policy in the UK https://www.local.gov.uk/sites/default/files/documents/SHIELDING%20GUIDANCE%20AND%20FAQS%20COMBINED%20-%2024%20APRIL%202020.pdf https://www.local.gov.uk/sites/default/files/documents/SHIEL... > left to run rampant in the wider population eventually the medical system is overwhelmed and collapses. The risk of hospitalisation was low around the 30s and younger.
- dageshi 4y ago
  > The shielding system was an official policy in the UK Yeah, it still didn't and doesn't work though. Carers will have families, they'll have children in school, they'll potentially have more than one job. You can't shield the "carers" so you can't shield the vulnerable outside of a wider scale lockdown. Lockdown was the only thing that stopped case numbers going up till the vaccine came along. > The risk of hospitalisation was low around the 30s and younger. The average age in the UK is 40. So pretty much half the population would need to completely isolate from the other half while the younger half lived their lives as normal. yeah, not going to happen.
  - okeuro49 4y ago
    > Lockdown was the only thing that stopped case numbers going up till the vaccine came along. Really? The graphs I have seen show cases declining even before lockdowns were imposed. > The average age in the UK is 40. So pretty much half the population would need to completely isolate from the other half while the younger half lived their lives as normal. The advice would have been the same, work from homes where possible. There was already the concept of "bubbles".
    - dageshi 4y ago
      > Really? The graphs I have seen show cases declining even before lockdowns were imposed. Likely because people were voluntarily locking down. Unless you deal with schools, there are no "bubbles" or not ones that really work. Do you send teachers into schools who are in the vulnerable group? Or do you close the schools? If you close the schools you may as well do a full lockdown because so many people will have to be at home to look after their children. The idea you can lockdown half the population by age just doesn't work because society doesn't separate itself out neatly by age.
  - robertlagrant 4y ago
    The age of 40 is interesting - is it from the Economist's model[0]? I don't know how accurate it is, but I would say comorbidities look a lot more serious than a general age-based approach. [0] https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/13/our-covid-19-model-estimates-odds-of-hospitalisation-and-death https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/03/13/our-covi...
    - mrguyorama 4y ago
      People always point to "comorbidities" but many of the comorbidities in covid's case were things like "being overweight", you know, most of the population?
      - robertlagrant 4y ago
        I'm not sure how globally applicable that point is, although it could be. Do you have a link to any stats? How do you define "overweight"?
- SideQuark 4y ago
  And the UK had one of the highest COVID death rates in first world countries.
pbmonster 4y ago
It's approximately what Sweden did. By most accounts, it worked better than what it's neighbors did (which more closely resembles what most states in the US did).