4 ms·

This is gonna be a bumpy ride. Glad I have saved up a nest egg. Though if the US dies it is not gonna save me either way.

dragonwriter 4y ago
The US has a recessions about twice a decade; its also had several depressions, though not for quite a while. They do not mean “the US dies”.
- peepeepoopoo3 4y ago
  There's a little over $200 billion dollars left in the US treasury right now, we have higher debt-to-GDP than Greece did at the beginning of their sovereign debt crisis, AND we have persistent high inflation. Something has to give. You can't fight inflation and pursue monetary easing at the same time.
  - carterschonwald 4y ago
    The us debt is denominated in usd. Countries in the EU don’t have the same luxury.
    - peepeepoopoo3 4y ago
      You're proposing to print away the debt during a period of already high inflation. While you're technically correct that we can avoid default by printing more money, the practical consequences of monetizing the national debt right now, would be catastrophic hyperinflation.
      - andrekandre 4y ago
        > we can avoid default by printing more money isnt "printing" usually done through issuing bonds? do those increase inflation?
        peepeepoopoo3 4y ago
        The treasury takes on debt when it issues bonds, but the Federal Reserve expands the money supply when it buys those bonds. It's a two-step process.
      - dragonwriter 4y ago
        > You’re proposing to print away the debt during a period of already high inflation. Current inflation isn’t that high (YoY is still high because its trailing), and if there is a recession, it will naturally fall faster, and easy money is the natural policy in those conditions, independent of debt concerns (which monetary policy generally is, that’s kind of the point of an independent central bank.)
  - wahern 4y ago
    Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio never stopped climbing; it peaked at over 200% in 2020. The crisis, meanwhile, was short-lived as the ratio per se was not among the most salient factors.
    - peepeepoopoo3 4y ago
      Geece had to massively increase taxes and implement austerity programs, to say nothing of the EU bailout. Since then, they've been able to survive on low interest rates. Low interest rates which are now gone, as the world is busy fighting inflation.
      - wahern 4y ago
        Inflation cuts both ways, eviscerating older debt. That's the whole reason for the present banking crisis. In any event, the debt-to-GDP ratio being higher than Greece's at the time of its debt crisis says absolutely nothing by itself about the U.S. situation. Pointing it out is a baseless, cheap insinuation.
        peepeepoopoo3 4y ago
        Except it's not, because our interest rates are also in the same range as when their debt crisis began. Greece was fine at those debt levels until their bond yields hit 5%, at which point they entered into a self-reinforcing spiral of insolvency. The Federal Reserve is currently targeting interest rates above 5% to fight inflation.
    - csomar 4y ago
      Greece crisis is short-lived? Greece never recovered from the crisis. Employment in Greece in 2010: 4.6 million. Employment in Greece now: around 4.0 million. Sure the unemployment rate has gone "down". That's because the youth gave up and simply moved from Greece. The GDP per capita will improve because of that but their GDP in constant prices never recovered (and is around 2002-2004 levels).
      - 4y ago
  - jones6ofMont 4y ago
    Fed can just print another 20 trillions. Treasury can mint a special 10T USD coin to payback FED. Nothing needs to give. As long as people have "faith" in USD, the music will continue...but those damn Yuan and Rubbles. Taht we need ro launch another Iraq war with China and Russia. They have WMD that we can blame on and get our boys there with poker cards - a version for the Russian and a version for the Chinese. Surely we can beat them as easily as Iraqis? Ignore Afghan - we always intended to replace Talebans with Talebans while we wash 10T USD for congress money laundry.
    - sgammon 4y ago
      i lost brain cells reading this
- csomar 4y ago
  This is the first time the US gets challenged on multiple fronts from multiple actors. China, Russia and non-alignment members are all challenging the status quo. The US dollar is being challenged from multiple fronts and one of them is Crypto. (though also the fact it's being mismanaged by its own creators is not helping either). We are definitively in an interesting time. More interesting than the cold war era? I don't know but we shall see.
  - CameronNemo 4y ago
    >This is the first time the US gets challenged on multiple fronts from multiple actors Laughs in WWII
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    > This is the first time the US gets challenged on multiple fronts from multiple actors. Its not even the first time since the end of the Cold War. > The US dollar is being challenged from multiple fronts and one of them is Crypto. (though also the fact it’s being mismanaged by its own creators is not helping either). So, I’m just about a half-century old, and since I became politically aware – which was pretty young – I’ve been hearing that exact line (except with something else, usually “Gold”, in place of crypto until recently) continuously that entire time.
  - monkeydreams 4y ago
    > This is the first time the US gets challenged on multiple fronts from multiple actors. China, Russia and non-alignment members are all challenging the status quo. Two blocs are emerging. One is largely unified around shared cultural interests in resilient democracy and defence of human rights. The other is a hodge-podge of malcontents, allies-of-convenience and one strong but largely regional power (i.e. China). If we look at this as a political struggle then we have to look at the problem-solution ledger to see who holds the advantage. The US (and the West) have issues with an imbalance of power and wealth, and growing numbers of disillusioned, young voters - this is the problem statement. What is the solution that the non-aligned movement can offer? Worse inequality? Fewer rights? What? The non-aligned countries have fractuous political bases and are shoring up their systems by cracking down on dissedents, attacking neighbours and attempting to corrupt other nation's foreign policies. No one is lining up to migrate to these countries, no one is holding them up as a beacon of rightousness (outside of the wingnut extremes, of course). Contrast this to the Cold War. The Soviets held a significant sway over the "International Left". They had answers to the problems of the West. Not good answers, but good enough to sway a lot of students and intelligentsia. China has no allies of note. Russia is a basket case. The rest of the non-aligned bloc are essentially local dictators trying to keep the pin in their respective grenades. All of them are experiencing the same struggle of either a rapidly aging population with no migration, or a rapidly growing youth who want a better life. For example, China's median age is rising 6 months for every year that passes, and they are a long way from being a sustainable, powerful economy. These are interesting times in the political sense but unless the West starts kicking a lot of "own goals" - which is very possible but not exactly probable - then the US (and to a lesser extent the EU) will own this century as well.
monkeydreams 4y ago
Even in this rapidly changing world it would be unwise to bet against the nation that has the US's habit of reinventing itself.
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
shrimpx 4y ago
If your nest egg is cash, it may be eroded by uncontrollable inflation. If your nest egg is in assets, it may be eroded by imploding asset markets. How do you keep your nest egg healthy?
- Rury 4y ago
  Inflation is a lagging metric. Inflation of 8%, means prices today are 8% higher than compared to a previous time. Holding onto cash when inflation is at 8% would be the good option, provided prices drop in the future (ie you're not losing 8% on holding your cash currently when inflation reads 8%, rather it's cash compared to last year which has lost 8% if you spend it now). As to whether we'll get inflation or deflation in the future, look to the Fed, they are the biggest market participant. Future is what matters, not the past.
- s1artibartfast 4y ago
  One option is to put your nest egg in a durable asset that you cherish, enjoy, and get daily use from.
- AnimalMuppet 4y ago
  "Divide your fortune into seven, or even into eight, for many are the mischances of the world" - the Bible (Ecclesiastes, if I recall correctly). In other words, diversify. Hope that the areas that grow make up for the areas that implode, or at least that they don't all implode.
- honkycat 4y ago
  > Though if the US dies it is not gonna save me either way. yeah this is what i meant by this comment.

dragonwriter 4y ago

The US has a recessions about twice a decade; its also had several depressions, though not for quite a while. They do not mean “the US dies”.

peepeepoopoo3 4y ago
There's a little over $200 billion dollars left in the US treasury right now, we have higher debt-to-GDP than Greece did at the beginning of their sovereign debt crisis, AND we have persistent high inflation. Something has to give. You can't fight inflation and pursue monetary easing at the same time.
- carterschonwald 4y ago
  The us debt is denominated in usd. Countries in the EU don’t have the same luxury.
  - peepeepoopoo3 4y ago
    You're proposing to print away the debt during a period of already high inflation. While you're technically correct that we can avoid default by printing more money, the practical consequences of monetizing the national debt right now, would be catastrophic hyperinflation.
    - andrekandre 4y ago
      > we can avoid default by printing more money isnt "printing" usually done through issuing bonds? do those increase inflation?
      - peepeepoopoo3 4y ago
        The treasury takes on debt when it issues bonds, but the Federal Reserve expands the money supply when it buys those bonds. It's a two-step process.
    - dragonwriter 4y ago
      > You’re proposing to print away the debt during a period of already high inflation. Current inflation isn’t that high (YoY is still high because its trailing), and if there is a recession, it will naturally fall faster, and easy money is the natural policy in those conditions, independent of debt concerns (which monetary policy generally is, that’s kind of the point of an independent central bank.)
- wahern 4y ago
  Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio never stopped climbing; it peaked at over 200% in 2020. The crisis, meanwhile, was short-lived as the ratio per se was not among the most salient factors.
  - peepeepoopoo3 4y ago
    Geece had to massively increase taxes and implement austerity programs, to say nothing of the EU bailout. Since then, they've been able to survive on low interest rates. Low interest rates which are now gone, as the world is busy fighting inflation.
    - wahern 4y ago
      Inflation cuts both ways, eviscerating older debt. That's the whole reason for the present banking crisis. In any event, the debt-to-GDP ratio being higher than Greece's at the time of its debt crisis says absolutely nothing by itself about the U.S. situation. Pointing it out is a baseless, cheap insinuation.
      - peepeepoopoo3 4y ago
        Except it's not, because our interest rates are also in the same range as when their debt crisis began. Greece was fine at those debt levels until their bond yields hit 5%, at which point they entered into a self-reinforcing spiral of insolvency. The Federal Reserve is currently targeting interest rates above 5% to fight inflation.
  - csomar 4y ago
    Greece crisis is short-lived? Greece never recovered from the crisis. Employment in Greece in 2010: 4.6 million. Employment in Greece now: around 4.0 million. Sure the unemployment rate has gone "down". That's because the youth gave up and simply moved from Greece. The GDP per capita will improve because of that but their GDP in constant prices never recovered (and is around 2002-2004 levels).
    - 4y ago
- jones6ofMont 4y ago
  Fed can just print another 20 trillions. Treasury can mint a special 10T USD coin to payback FED. Nothing needs to give. As long as people have "faith" in USD, the music will continue...but those damn Yuan and Rubbles. Taht we need ro launch another Iraq war with China and Russia. They have WMD that we can blame on and get our boys there with poker cards - a version for the Russian and a version for the Chinese. Surely we can beat them as easily as Iraqis? Ignore Afghan - we always intended to replace Talebans with Talebans while we wash 10T USD for congress money laundry.
  - sgammon 4y ago
    i lost brain cells reading this
csomar 4y ago
This is the first time the US gets challenged on multiple fronts from multiple actors. China, Russia and non-alignment members are all challenging the status quo. The US dollar is being challenged from multiple fronts and one of them is Crypto. (though also the fact it's being mismanaged by its own creators is not helping either). We are definitively in an interesting time. More interesting than the cold war era? I don't know but we shall see.
- CameronNemo 4y ago
  >This is the first time the US gets challenged on multiple fronts from multiple actors Laughs in WWII
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  > This is the first time the US gets challenged on multiple fronts from multiple actors. Its not even the first time since the end of the Cold War. > The US dollar is being challenged from multiple fronts and one of them is Crypto. (though also the fact it’s being mismanaged by its own creators is not helping either). So, I’m just about a half-century old, and since I became politically aware – which was pretty young – I’ve been hearing that exact line (except with something else, usually “Gold”, in place of crypto until recently) continuously that entire time.
- monkeydreams 4y ago
  > This is the first time the US gets challenged on multiple fronts from multiple actors. China, Russia and non-alignment members are all challenging the status quo. Two blocs are emerging. One is largely unified around shared cultural interests in resilient democracy and defence of human rights. The other is a hodge-podge of malcontents, allies-of-convenience and one strong but largely regional power (i.e. China). If we look at this as a political struggle then we have to look at the problem-solution ledger to see who holds the advantage. The US (and the West) have issues with an imbalance of power and wealth, and growing numbers of disillusioned, young voters - this is the problem statement. What is the solution that the non-aligned movement can offer? Worse inequality? Fewer rights? What? The non-aligned countries have fractuous political bases and are shoring up their systems by cracking down on dissedents, attacking neighbours and attempting to corrupt other nation's foreign policies. No one is lining up to migrate to these countries, no one is holding them up as a beacon of rightousness (outside of the wingnut extremes, of course). Contrast this to the Cold War. The Soviets held a significant sway over the "International Left". They had answers to the problems of the West. Not good answers, but good enough to sway a lot of students and intelligentsia. China has no allies of note. Russia is a basket case. The rest of the non-aligned bloc are essentially local dictators trying to keep the pin in their respective grenades. All of them are experiencing the same struggle of either a rapidly aging population with no migration, or a rapidly growing youth who want a better life. For example, China's median age is rising 6 months for every year that passes, and they are a long way from being a sustainable, powerful economy. These are interesting times in the political sense but unless the West starts kicking a lot of "own goals" - which is very possible but not exactly probable - then the US (and to a lesser extent the EU) will own this century as well.

monkeydreams 4y ago

Even in this rapidly changing world it would be unwise to bet against the nation that has the US's habit of reinventing itself.

deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

shrimpx 4y ago

If your nest egg is cash, it may be eroded by uncontrollable inflation. If your nest egg is in assets, it may be eroded by imploding asset markets. How do you keep your nest egg healthy?

Rury 4y ago
Inflation is a lagging metric. Inflation of 8%, means prices today are 8% higher than compared to a previous time. Holding onto cash when inflation is at 8% would be the good option, provided prices drop in the future (ie you're not losing 8% on holding your cash currently when inflation reads 8%, rather it's cash compared to last year which has lost 8% if you spend it now). As to whether we'll get inflation or deflation in the future, look to the Fed, they are the biggest market participant. Future is what matters, not the past.
s1artibartfast 4y ago
One option is to put your nest egg in a durable asset that you cherish, enjoy, and get daily use from.
AnimalMuppet 4y ago
"Divide your fortune into seven, or even into eight, for many are the mischances of the world" - the Bible (Ecclesiastes, if I recall correctly). In other words, diversify. Hope that the areas that grow make up for the areas that implode, or at least that they don't all implode.
honkycat 4y ago
> Though if the US dies it is not gonna save me either way. yeah this is what i meant by this comment.