The crux of your question is whether LLMs will replace programmers. I’m prepared to stake my career on the prediction that they won’t. GTP3 was a breakthrough.

The crux of your question is whether LLMs will replace programmers. I’m prepared to stake my career on the prediction that they won’t. GTP3 was a breakthrough. We’ll figure out how to integrate this level of AI into our lives, and there will be incremental improvement, but who knows when the next breakthrough will be. What you’re predicting, with GTP10 being able to write large amounts of code is just not possible with incremental improvements. GTP has no internal representation of the world, and so it struggles with novel problem solving that would be trivial for a human.