5 ms·

Could you provide further explanation, or will you leave this hanging mysteriously in the air, shrouded like a punter knowingly tapping his nose? It seems cut

by ATB 18y ago

Could you provide further explanation, or will you leave this hanging mysteriously in the air, shrouded like a punter knowingly tapping his nose? It seems cut and dry the way the article is written: Intrade/Betfair correctly predicted 50 states. Are you going to try to make some money tomorrow night, or is there another reason why you won't give up your closely-held betting expertise? :-)

mattmaroon 18y ago
I don't think I can do it tomorrow because the election isn't close enough. But yeah, I think it's pretty exploitable when they are. People say that stock markets are efficient, but then the last couple months show that the money there is just as prone to groupthink as anywhere else. The same is true of Intrade. More true probably due to betting/deposit limitations.
- fallentimes 18y ago
  Markets, whether sports gambling/tickets/stocks/politrix are not efficient. I'm just glad I get to make money from them.
  - mattmaroon 18y ago
    Yeah but politics (at least on Intrade) is much further away than most, and in ways you can predict and exploit. I have a suspicion the same is true, but to a much lesser extent, of NFL games, but I can't confirm it.
    - fallentimes 18y ago
      Do to the volume of games and # of teams, NCAA basketball is actually the best for exploiting. The book The Smart Money is a great read. Also, we have some people in the know post on the TicketStumber blog: http://ticketstumbler.com/blog/category/sports-insights/ http://ticketstumbler.com/blog/category/sports-insights/ http://sports.ticketstumbler.com/blog/?cat=4 http://sports.ticketstumbler.com/blog/?cat=4 My gambling "fund" is up 35% for the year. My stocks are down by a similar margin.
      - mattmaroon 18y ago
        Interestingly, a friend a couple months ago was telling me about ultra ETFs. They use leverage to ensure (quite reliably so far, though they're new) a daily return of double the index they're based on. He specifically recommended one that is short the S&P. I haven't talked to him since, but I suspect he's buying a beach house ATM.
        fallentimes 18y ago
        Double the loss though right? The banks went under for similar reasons - way too much leverage.
        mattmaroon 18y ago
        Yeah, over time an ultra etf should make 2x what the s&p gains (and a short one would lose 2x). In the short term though that's a hell of a profit (on the ultra shorts) when things go the way they have.
  - dejb 18y ago
    You are using the techical description of "efficient markets" right? (i.e. perfectly accurate odds). Of course by this standard you are bound to be correct. However I'm sure you realized that by participating in and 'beating' the market you are increasing its accuracy. The important question is 'how useful or accurate are these markets compared to anything else?'. I'd challenge you to find a more accurate predictive indicator that is publicly available (even if not for free).
    - fallentimes 18y ago
      Yes, the technical description. Oh man, prediction markets should be used for everything. I love them.
    - mattmaroon 18y ago
      fivethirtyeight.com may have a more reliable method. Time will tell. An aggregate of polls with solid math applied to it might just win by having more data. Now, if there were a US-legal prediction market, that would be something.
      - fallentimes 18y ago
        You think it could be more reliable than following the money? What about an aggregate of money-based prediction markets?
        dejb 18y ago
        Actually they do tend to aggregate anyway because of arbitrage.
      - dejb 18y ago
        I think it is unlikely that fivethirtyeight.com would be more reliable. The human minds are still more subtle than statistical methods alone. However even if 538 did prove more accurate its results would soon be incorporated into the market by betters. The reverse is not so likely to occur. > Now, if there were a US-legal prediction market, that would be something. You would have to think that involving US citizens would improve the market's accuracy. It's ironic that US-citizens can't bet.

by ATB 18y ago

mattmaroon 18y ago

I don't think I can do it tomorrow because the election isn't close enough. But yeah, I think it's pretty exploitable when they are. People say that stock markets are efficient, but then the last couple months show that the money there is just as prone to groupthink as anywhere else. The same is true of Intrade. More true probably due to betting/deposit limitations.

fallentimes 18y ago
Markets, whether sports gambling/tickets/stocks/politrix are not efficient. I'm just glad I get to make money from them.
- mattmaroon 18y ago
  Yeah but politics (at least on Intrade) is much further away than most, and in ways you can predict and exploit. I have a suspicion the same is true, but to a much lesser extent, of NFL games, but I can't confirm it.
  - fallentimes 18y ago
    Do to the volume of games and # of teams, NCAA basketball is actually the best for exploiting. The book The Smart Money is a great read. Also, we have some people in the know post on the TicketStumber blog: http://ticketstumbler.com/blog/category/sports-insights/ http://ticketstumbler.com/blog/category/sports-insights/ http://sports.ticketstumbler.com/blog/?cat=4 http://sports.ticketstumbler.com/blog/?cat=4 My gambling "fund" is up 35% for the year. My stocks are down by a similar margin.
    - mattmaroon 18y ago
      Interestingly, a friend a couple months ago was telling me about ultra ETFs. They use leverage to ensure (quite reliably so far, though they're new) a daily return of double the index they're based on. He specifically recommended one that is short the S&P. I haven't talked to him since, but I suspect he's buying a beach house ATM.
      - fallentimes 18y ago
        Double the loss though right? The banks went under for similar reasons - way too much leverage.
        mattmaroon 18y ago
        Yeah, over time an ultra etf should make 2x what the s&p gains (and a short one would lose 2x). In the short term though that's a hell of a profit (on the ultra shorts) when things go the way they have.
- dejb 18y ago
  You are using the techical description of "efficient markets" right? (i.e. perfectly accurate odds). Of course by this standard you are bound to be correct. However I'm sure you realized that by participating in and 'beating' the market you are increasing its accuracy. The important question is 'how useful or accurate are these markets compared to anything else?'. I'd challenge you to find a more accurate predictive indicator that is publicly available (even if not for free).
  - fallentimes 18y ago
    Yes, the technical description. Oh man, prediction markets should be used for everything. I love them.
  - mattmaroon 18y ago
    fivethirtyeight.com may have a more reliable method. Time will tell. An aggregate of polls with solid math applied to it might just win by having more data. Now, if there were a US-legal prediction market, that would be something.
    - fallentimes 18y ago
      You think it could be more reliable than following the money? What about an aggregate of money-based prediction markets?
      - dejb 18y ago
        Actually they do tend to aggregate anyway because of arbitrage.
    - dejb 18y ago
      I think it is unlikely that fivethirtyeight.com would be more reliable. The human minds are still more subtle than statistical methods alone. However even if 538 did prove more accurate its results would soon be incorporated into the market by betters. The reverse is not so likely to occur. > Now, if there were a US-legal prediction market, that would be something. You would have to think that involving US citizens would improve the market's accuracy. It's ironic that US-citizens can't bet.