4 ms·

I agree with your overall post, but the demand was likely less driven by federal stimulus, than everyone being stuck home and looking around and realizing maybe

I agree with your overall post, but the demand was likely less driven by federal stimulus, than everyone being stuck home and looking around and realizing maybe its time to finally fix that fence/deck, and knock out that project I have had on the to-do list for years now... I mean maybe the injection of the stimulus helped turbocharge it, but three years ago virtually all of my discretionary spending just stopped overnight. There were no restaurants or movies to go to, practically all activities were canceled, etc. I mean its a real indictment of the state of America if a $1200 check can just radically reshape the economy. I guess its possible the even larger corporate checks were a factor here too, but I was really surprised that restaurants and other establishments didn't take the time as an opportunity to remodel or update, but obviously there was a lot of fear, probably a lack of willing workers, etc that prevented a lot of that. As a personal anecdote, I didn't receive any stimulus funds of any sort, but thought a nice covid-safe project would be to get my driveway redone- its a pretty simple outdoor concrete driveway, but no one would do this in all of 2020. I still can't get anyone to do my punch list of small $5-15k projects.

ROTMetro 4y ago
The demand was driven by REQUIRED construction to meet safety measures. Instead of the attack on 'free money' he thinks he is making he is showing that his company profited from big government (IE rent seeking).
- kevstev 4y ago
  I am sorry, I don't understand- can you explain this? What construction was required for safety measures? Especially such that required wood specifically?
  - gcr 4y ago
    In NYC, some restaurants could reopen and conduct business as usual if they were classified as outdoor venues. This interacted oddly with another regulation that let a restaurant count as “outdoor” if part of its seating area had outdoor seats, so you had a lot of restaurants in the middle of the bustling city build these gazebo-type structures that put some number of tables right on the sidewalk in the midst of pedestrian foot traffic. For a small restaurant owner, the combination of these two loopholes created an intense pressure where building out this outdoor seating was simply a requirement of doing business
    - kevstev 4y ago
      You really think this causes lumber prices to fly through the roof though? It may have been a factor but it seems a stretch that NYC restaurants would increase demand that much.
vba616 4y ago
>I mean its a real indictment of the state of America if a $1200 check can just radically reshape the economy. It sounds like a very small amount of money when you put it that way. What do you get if you multiply by the number of people who got it? Also, do you not recall more than one check?
- kevstev 4y ago
  I was not eligible for any COVID relief. I was above income limits. Wasn't it two $600 checks though?
  - dragonwriter 4y ago
    The total (maximum; there was an income phaseout) amount under the CARES Act was $1,200 credit per single filer ($2,400 for married filing jointly) + $500 per dependent child, the amount under the American Rescue Plan (which had a different income phaseout) was $1,400 per individual (including adult and child dependents). And, yeah, there were lots of other payments in those bills besides the income-tested-only stimulus payments to individuals. (
    - vba616 4y ago
      I did get a similar check from my state government too.
TexanFeller 4y ago
> if a $1200 check can just radically reshape the economy It was far more than that. There were child tax credits, student loans were paused, evictions were paused, unemployment insurance payouts were massively increased etc. With the covid boosts my wife made no less on unemployment than she did working, and some people got a moderate raise to stay home!
dragonwriter 4y ago
> but the demand was likely less driven by federal stimulus, than everyone being stuck home and looking around and realizing maybe its time to finally fix that fence/deck, and knock out that project I have had on the to-do list for years now… Yes, and also, aside from the general stimulus payments, there was also the combination of a whole lot of unemployment plus federally increased and extended unemployment payments that were designed to approximately, on average, to boost unemployment payments to 100% of last employment level. So you had lots of people with extra time on their hands (whether newly remote workers saving commute or people completely out of work) with less “normal” activities to spend time and money on, with their normal money or more. So, yeah, there were lots of opportunities to knock out household projects that were otherwise being deferred, or to discover and take on ones that hadn’t been planned.

ROTMetro 4y ago

The demand was driven by REQUIRED construction to meet safety measures. Instead of the attack on 'free money' he thinks he is making he is showing that his company profited from big government (IE rent seeking).

kevstev 4y ago
I am sorry, I don't understand- can you explain this? What construction was required for safety measures? Especially such that required wood specifically?
- gcr 4y ago
  In NYC, some restaurants could reopen and conduct business as usual if they were classified as outdoor venues. This interacted oddly with another regulation that let a restaurant count as “outdoor” if part of its seating area had outdoor seats, so you had a lot of restaurants in the middle of the bustling city build these gazebo-type structures that put some number of tables right on the sidewalk in the midst of pedestrian foot traffic. For a small restaurant owner, the combination of these two loopholes created an intense pressure where building out this outdoor seating was simply a requirement of doing business
  - kevstev 4y ago
    You really think this causes lumber prices to fly through the roof though? It may have been a factor but it seems a stretch that NYC restaurants would increase demand that much.

vba616 4y ago

>I mean its a real indictment of the state of America if a $1200 check can just radically reshape the economy. It sounds like a very small amount of money when you put it that way. What do you get if you multiply by the number of people who got it? Also, do you not recall more than one check?

kevstev 4y ago
I was not eligible for any COVID relief. I was above income limits. Wasn't it two $600 checks though?
- dragonwriter 4y ago
  The total (maximum; there was an income phaseout) amount under the CARES Act was $1,200 credit per single filer ($2,400 for married filing jointly) + $500 per dependent child, the amount under the American Rescue Plan (which had a different income phaseout) was $1,400 per individual (including adult and child dependents). And, yeah, there were lots of other payments in those bills besides the income-tested-only stimulus payments to individuals. (
  - vba616 4y ago
    I did get a similar check from my state government too.

TexanFeller 4y ago

> if a $1200 check can just radically reshape the economy It was far more than that. There were child tax credits, student loans were paused, evictions were paused, unemployment insurance payouts were massively increased etc. With the covid boosts my wife made no less on unemployment than she did working, and some people got a moderate raise to stay home!

dragonwriter 4y ago

> but the demand was likely less driven by federal stimulus, than everyone being stuck home and looking around and realizing maybe its time to finally fix that fence/deck, and knock out that project I have had on the to-do list for years now… Yes, and also, aside from the general stimulus payments, there was also the combination of a whole lot of unemployment plus federally increased and extended unemployment payments that were designed to approximately, on average, to boost unemployment payments to 100% of last employment level. So you had lots of people with extra time on their hands (whether newly remote workers saving commute or people completely out of work) with less “normal” activities to spend time and money on, with their normal money or more. So, yeah, there were lots of opportunities to knock out household projects that were otherwise being deferred, or to discover and take on ones that hadn’t been planned.