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Utopia: We raised the price so people starting using less alcohol! Reality: We raised the price so people shifted to more black market drugs that didn't show u

Utopia: We raised the price so people starting using less alcohol! Reality: We raised the price so people shifted to more black market drugs that didn't show up in this particular study!

ajkjk 4y ago
Do you have any reason to believe that or do you just disbelieve positive results on principle?
- notch898a 4y ago
  I don't think I've said anything that suggests I disbelieve what the study said about decreased alcohol related deaths. So sure, I believe that positive result. The https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Substitution_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Substitution_effect . Yes nothing else is a perfect substitute for alcohol (some benzos are close though), but other substances are imperfect substitutes to become intoxicated. Substances substitution is a prevalent theme in drug abuse.
- giantg2 4y ago
  I disagree with their phrasing, but I tend to question positive or negative results. That way I can understand the data and how that fits into the overall system. For example, it seems a lot of this study took place during the pandemic. Seeing the data on a year by year basis and understanding other possible effects of behavior would be good. It's not necessarily to disprove anything, but it could serve to strengthen position. The way the linked article is written, it's like saying "I have a green marble in this box". You have no reason to doubt me and I have no reason to lie. But you're going to believe me more if I let you look in the box. Who knows, maybe I'm colorblind and it's actually red.
- doix 4y ago
  Drug related deaths kept rising after the minimum unit pricing. But they were raising pretty consistently before that though. A quick Google shows that they're finally plateauing now, which is great. The confidence is pretty high, I find it a bit off putting. > The methods we’ve used in this study allow us to be confident that the reduction in alcohol health harms we’ve shown is due to the introduction of MUP, rather than some other factor. It's just too confident of a statement in my eyes. Whenever I read things like this, I'm immediately skeptical and beging questioning the motivations. On a sidenote, I wonder if these changes made a noticeable difference when it comes to the Glasgow effect[0]. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_effect
my-valhalla 4y ago
[flagged]
- striking 4y ago
  > Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents. Omit internet tropes. > Please don't use Hacker News for political or ideological battle. That tramples curiosity. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
  - my-valhalla 4y ago
    [flagged]
    - dang 4y ago
      We've banned this account for breaking the site guidelines. Please don't create accounts to break HN's rules with. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- unethical_ban 4y ago
  Study presented. Commenter is not only skeptical without evidence, but hostile to the conclusion. Mocks the effort. You login to play victim to a crime committed in your mind.
  - notch898a 4y ago
    I never even disagreed to the conclusion about reduced alcohol related deaths, friend. Not only am I not skeptical of the study, I completely acknowledge the results. The study never tried to disprove substitutive effects of intoxicant use, which is what I am pointing out.
    - my-valhalla 4y ago
      [flagged]
Analemma_ 4y ago
That might be plausible if the study was counting alcohol sales, but this is counting deaths.
- notch898a 4y ago
  It is counting alcohol related deaths, not deaths from substitution effect to other intoxicants.
  - stametseater 4y ago
    What intoxicants are cheaper than alcohol? The only one that comes to mind is cannabis, and if people are ditching alcohol for cannabis I think that will surely save lives.
    - notch898a 4y ago
      Increasing the cost of alcohol not only decreases the relative cost of cheaper substances, it also decreases the relative cost of more expensive substances.
    - throwthrowuknow 4y ago
      Paint, glue, mouthwash. They said they found the difference was most pronounced in the poorest areas so these options are already on the menu.
      - woodruffw 4y ago
        Do you actually have evidence that alcoholics are switching to paint huffing, or is this just speculation? Alcoholism is unusual among addictions in that it's (1) largely invisible until its end state and (2) minimally taboo when it occurs in "high-functioning" individuals. Huffing chemicals is neither of those things, nor is swallowing mouthwash (which is more likely to make you sick than drunk at the quantities an average adult would need.)
      - stametseater 4y ago
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

Utopia: We raised the price so people starting using less alcohol! Reality: We raised the price so people shifted to more black market drugs that didn't show up in this particular study!

ajkjk 4y ago

Do you have any reason to believe that or do you just disbelieve positive results on principle?

notch898a 4y ago
I don't think I've said anything that suggests I disbelieve what the study said about decreased alcohol related deaths. So sure, I believe that positive result. The https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Substitution_effect https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Substitution_effect . Yes nothing else is a perfect substitute for alcohol (some benzos are close though), but other substances are imperfect substitutes to become intoxicated. Substances substitution is a prevalent theme in drug abuse.
giantg2 4y ago
I disagree with their phrasing, but I tend to question positive or negative results. That way I can understand the data and how that fits into the overall system. For example, it seems a lot of this study took place during the pandemic. Seeing the data on a year by year basis and understanding other possible effects of behavior would be good. It's not necessarily to disprove anything, but it could serve to strengthen position. The way the linked article is written, it's like saying "I have a green marble in this box". You have no reason to doubt me and I have no reason to lie. But you're going to believe me more if I let you look in the box. Who knows, maybe I'm colorblind and it's actually red.
doix 4y ago
Drug related deaths kept rising after the minimum unit pricing. But they were raising pretty consistently before that though. A quick Google shows that they're finally plateauing now, which is great. The confidence is pretty high, I find it a bit off putting. > The methods we’ve used in this study allow us to be confident that the reduction in alcohol health harms we’ve shown is due to the introduction of MUP, rather than some other factor. It's just too confident of a statement in my eyes. Whenever I read things like this, I'm immediately skeptical and beging questioning the motivations. On a sidenote, I wonder if these changes made a noticeable difference when it comes to the Glasgow effect[0]. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_effect https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_effect

my-valhalla 4y ago

[flagged]

striking 4y ago
> Eschew flamebait. Avoid generic tangents. Omit internet tropes. > Please don't use Hacker News for political or ideological battle. That tramples curiosity. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- my-valhalla 4y ago
  [flagged]
  - dang 4y ago
    We've banned this account for breaking the site guidelines. Please don't create accounts to break HN's rules with. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
unethical_ban 4y ago
Study presented. Commenter is not only skeptical without evidence, but hostile to the conclusion. Mocks the effort. You login to play victim to a crime committed in your mind.
- notch898a 4y ago
  I never even disagreed to the conclusion about reduced alcohol related deaths, friend. Not only am I not skeptical of the study, I completely acknowledge the results. The study never tried to disprove substitutive effects of intoxicant use, which is what I am pointing out.
  - my-valhalla 4y ago
    [flagged]

Analemma_ 4y ago

That might be plausible if the study was counting alcohol sales, but this is counting deaths.

notch898a 4y ago
It is counting alcohol related deaths, not deaths from substitution effect to other intoxicants.
- stametseater 4y ago
  What intoxicants are cheaper than alcohol? The only one that comes to mind is cannabis, and if people are ditching alcohol for cannabis I think that will surely save lives.
  - notch898a 4y ago
    Increasing the cost of alcohol not only decreases the relative cost of cheaper substances, it also decreases the relative cost of more expensive substances.
  - throwthrowuknow 4y ago
    Paint, glue, mouthwash. They said they found the difference was most pronounced in the poorest areas so these options are already on the menu.
    - woodruffw 4y ago
      Do you actually have evidence that alcoholics are switching to paint huffing, or is this just speculation? Alcoholism is unusual among addictions in that it's (1) largely invisible until its end state and (2) minimally taboo when it occurs in "high-functioning" individuals. Huffing chemicals is neither of those things, nor is swallowing mouthwash (which is more likely to make you sick than drunk at the quantities an average adult would need.)
    - stametseater 4y ago

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]