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That was an interesting natural experiment. But… I wouldn’t pretend like that correlation is causation: - police departments control the official crime metr

That was an interesting natural experiment. But… I wouldn’t pretend like that correlation is causation: - police departments control the official crime metrics - there were fewer officers to write the paperwork that officially tracks crimes - when the “blue flu” happens publicly, more crime victims will avoid reporting out of frustration I highly doubt criminals took a holiday when police decided to coordinate minimum work days.

komali2 4y ago
> During the slowdown, police continued to respond to calls, and the arrest rate for major crimes (murder, rape, robbery, felony assault, burglary, grand larceny, and grand theft auto) remained constant. But the arrest rate for non-major crime and narcotic offenses dropped, as did the number of stop-and-frisk events. It took until mid-January for things to begin to return to normal.
- thephyber 4y ago
  Do you believe that quote supports or refutes my comment?
  - komali2 4y ago
    Refutes, it wasn't that people were reporting less crime or that cops weren't responding to violent crimes. It seems "active enforcement," or police departments going out of their way to "do policing," leads to an increase in actual crime committed.
    - thephyber 4y ago
      I’m not sure that’s the only possible interpretation. Crimes aren’t always reported. Stop-and-frisk mostly turns up crimes such as illegal possession of weapon, illegal possession of substance, and parole violation. None of these are likely to be reported by by anyone because the nature of them is mostly that only the participants in the crime know about the crime. Also, I’m not making any moral or ethical claims above. I dislike stop-and-frisk because it is too subjective, not targeted enough, and corrodes the trust between police and citizens that benefit most from that trust. I’m also not making similar judgements about which actions should be crimes in the law — I’m sure we have too many. But I do highly value talking honestly about the data we use for policy decisions. And in the context of the Vallejo article, I think corrupt police departments very much increase crime in their jurisdictions. I was in LA when the Rampart District scandal became public and I was nearby when LAPD brass tried to figure out how to handle it.

komali2 4y ago

> During the slowdown, police continued to respond to calls, and the arrest rate for major crimes (murder, rape, robbery, felony assault, burglary, grand larceny, and grand theft auto) remained constant. But the arrest rate for non-major crime and narcotic offenses dropped, as did the number of stop-and-frisk events. It took until mid-January for things to begin to return to normal.

thephyber 4y ago
Do you believe that quote supports or refutes my comment?
- komali2 4y ago
  Refutes, it wasn't that people were reporting less crime or that cops weren't responding to violent crimes. It seems "active enforcement," or police departments going out of their way to "do policing," leads to an increase in actual crime committed.
  - thephyber 4y ago
    I’m not sure that’s the only possible interpretation. Crimes aren’t always reported. Stop-and-frisk mostly turns up crimes such as illegal possession of weapon, illegal possession of substance, and parole violation. None of these are likely to be reported by by anyone because the nature of them is mostly that only the participants in the crime know about the crime. Also, I’m not making any moral or ethical claims above. I dislike stop-and-frisk because it is too subjective, not targeted enough, and corrodes the trust between police and citizens that benefit most from that trust. I’m also not making similar judgements about which actions should be crimes in the law — I’m sure we have too many. But I do highly value talking honestly about the data we use for policy decisions. And in the context of the Vallejo article, I think corrupt police departments very much increase crime in their jurisdictions. I was in LA when the Rampart District scandal became public and I was nearby when LAPD brass tried to figure out how to handle it.