4 ms·

We have a gigantic housing bubble and banks are holding the bag.

by junofan 4y ago

smt88 4y ago
Housing bubbles don't always burst (see: Australia)
- quickthrower2 4y ago
  Australia might be a reverse bubble. It is really the salaries shrinking (in real terms) rather than hot house prices increases.
  - viraptor 4y ago
    My street going >60% up in price would disagree and I can't think of any other price that grew as fast in the last 2 years. Food and other things got slightly more expensive, but it doesn't seem comparable to the housing.
    - quickthrower2 4y ago
      I am guessing your street is a very hip desirable (top 1%) area. Most suburbs would have gone up in 2021 and down in 2022 and not be that much higher.
- lmpdev 4y ago
  Australia is in DIRE need of reform - unfortunately we voted against Shorten's election plans in 2019 that would have dramatically reduced the upward pressure on housing prices Anecdotal but I cannot afford to move back to the lower middle class regional town I grew up in, as there are 0 rentals and buying is minimum $800,000 My mother's place has gone from: 1990 - $100,000 AUD 2006 - $600,000 AUD 2021 - $1,200,000 AUD The local council estimates we can only add 0.29% to the population YoY
abeppu 4y ago
Is it a gigantic housing bubble? Prices clearly peaked, and the YoY price increase in some places had gotten a bit silly. But don't a lot of cities still just have a lot less housing than they should because of decades of not building enough? And even the decline in prices is mostly about the higher mortgage rates?
- prepend 4y ago
  Everyone refinanced to very low interest rates. If home prices drop and people default then that’s lots of exposure to potential negative equity in all those home loans. I think the bubble is due to extremely high home prices. In my metro area, prices are up 70% since 2020. So a drop of 40% to correct to 2020 levels isn’t unheard of. Personally, I think the price is structural adjustments as people shift to remote work and that makes different houses more valuable (suburbs and exurbs have really increased quite a bit).
  - b1c1jones 4y ago
    Your metro area is not my metro area, nor is it any other metro area besides your metro area.
    - prepend 4y ago
      My metro area is similar to many other metro areas. And I think is a pretty decent reference to average US home prices going up by 45% [0] since 2020. [0] https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/house-prices-growth https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/house-pr...
  - seizethegdgap 4y ago
    I started to reply "How many of these loans are sub-prime ARMs though?" and then went and looked for the data myself. I can't tell if these ARMs are risky, but we're seeing an early-2000's-level number of people applying for them. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/11/adjustable-rate-mortgage-demand-surges-to-14-year-high-as-homebuyers-try-to-afford-this-pricey-spring-market.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/11/adjustable-rate-mortgage-dem... > “More borrowers continue to utilize ARMs to combat higher rates. The share of ARMs increased to 11% of overall loans and to 19% by dollar volume.” At the start of this year, when rates were still hovering near record lows, the ARM share was just 3% of all purchase applications. At 11% that is the highest share since March 2008. https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/07/20/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/07/... > The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 9.5 percent of total applications. https://newslink.mba.org/mba-newslinks/2022/november/mba-newslink-thursday-nov-10-2022/mba-weekly-survey-nov-9-2022-rates-rise-refis-fall-to-22-year-low/ https://newslink.mba.org/mba-newslinks/2022/november/mba-new... > The ARM share of activity increased to 12.0 percent of total applications. Now, my wife and I bought our current house on a 5/1 ARM that was capped at +-1%/year and I think 10% total. We then refi'd in April 2020 and got on a 30 year fixed. I'm not sure if new rules after 2008 require ARMs to have total/yearly caps or not, if they do then a bubble pop will likely hurt a lot less. If they don't, then we're likely 4-5 years out from another crash.
basch 4y ago
Who here has a mortgage that eventually got purchased by Fannie or Freddie? The lenders underwriting home loans hold them a grand total of a couple days before they get passed along. The crisis this time is going to be to bank shareholders. Probably some pensions and retirement funds. And then consolidation, and fewer choices for the consumer. Eventually we will all bank at MorganChaseGoldmanWitterWellsSchwabFargoHamiltonMellonMerrillLynchPierceFennerReynoldsSmithSachs.
anonuser123456 4y ago
Banks hold to maturity. There is no bag.

We have a gigantic housing bubble and banks are holding the bag.

smt88 4y ago

Housing bubbles don't always burst (see: Australia)

quickthrower2 4y ago
Australia might be a reverse bubble. It is really the salaries shrinking (in real terms) rather than hot house prices increases.
- viraptor 4y ago
  My street going >60% up in price would disagree and I can't think of any other price that grew as fast in the last 2 years. Food and other things got slightly more expensive, but it doesn't seem comparable to the housing.
  - quickthrower2 4y ago
    I am guessing your street is a very hip desirable (top 1%) area. Most suburbs would have gone up in 2021 and down in 2022 and not be that much higher.
lmpdev 4y ago
Australia is in DIRE need of reform - unfortunately we voted against Shorten's election plans in 2019 that would have dramatically reduced the upward pressure on housing prices Anecdotal but I cannot afford to move back to the lower middle class regional town I grew up in, as there are 0 rentals and buying is minimum $800,000 My mother's place has gone from: 1990 - $100,000 AUD 2006 - $600,000 AUD 2021 - $1,200,000 AUD The local council estimates we can only add 0.29% to the population YoY

abeppu 4y ago

Is it a gigantic housing bubble? Prices clearly peaked, and the YoY price increase in some places had gotten a bit silly. But don't a lot of cities still just have a lot less housing than they should because of decades of not building enough? And even the decline in prices is mostly about the higher mortgage rates?

prepend 4y ago
Everyone refinanced to very low interest rates. If home prices drop and people default then that’s lots of exposure to potential negative equity in all those home loans. I think the bubble is due to extremely high home prices. In my metro area, prices are up 70% since 2020. So a drop of 40% to correct to 2020 levels isn’t unheard of. Personally, I think the price is structural adjustments as people shift to remote work and that makes different houses more valuable (suburbs and exurbs have really increased quite a bit).
- b1c1jones 4y ago
  Your metro area is not my metro area, nor is it any other metro area besides your metro area.
  - prepend 4y ago
    My metro area is similar to many other metro areas. And I think is a pretty decent reference to average US home prices going up by 45% [0] since 2020. [0] https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/house-prices-growth https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/house-pr...
- seizethegdgap 4y ago
  I started to reply "How many of these loans are sub-prime ARMs though?" and then went and looked for the data myself. I can't tell if these ARMs are risky, but we're seeing an early-2000's-level number of people applying for them. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/11/adjustable-rate-mortgage-demand-surges-to-14-year-high-as-homebuyers-try-to-afford-this-pricey-spring-market.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/11/adjustable-rate-mortgage-dem... > “More borrowers continue to utilize ARMs to combat higher rates. The share of ARMs increased to 11% of overall loans and to 19% by dollar volume.” At the start of this year, when rates were still hovering near record lows, the ARM share was just 3% of all purchase applications. At 11% that is the highest share since March 2008. https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/07/20/mortgage-applications-decrease-in-latest-mba-weekly-survey https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/newsroom/news/2022/07/... > The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 9.5 percent of total applications. https://newslink.mba.org/mba-newslinks/2022/november/mba-newslink-thursday-nov-10-2022/mba-weekly-survey-nov-9-2022-rates-rise-refis-fall-to-22-year-low/ https://newslink.mba.org/mba-newslinks/2022/november/mba-new... > The ARM share of activity increased to 12.0 percent of total applications. Now, my wife and I bought our current house on a 5/1 ARM that was capped at +-1%/year and I think 10% total. We then refi'd in April 2020 and got on a 30 year fixed. I'm not sure if new rules after 2008 require ARMs to have total/yearly caps or not, if they do then a bubble pop will likely hurt a lot less. If they don't, then we're likely 4-5 years out from another crash.

basch 4y ago

Who here has a mortgage that eventually got purchased by Fannie or Freddie? The lenders underwriting home loans hold them a grand total of a couple days before they get passed along. The crisis this time is going to be to bank shareholders. Probably some pensions and retirement funds. And then consolidation, and fewer choices for the consumer. Eventually we will all bank at MorganChaseGoldmanWitterWellsSchwabFargoHamiltonMellonMerrillLynchPierceFennerReynoldsSmithSachs.

anonuser123456 4y ago

Banks hold to maturity. There is no bag.