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Well, some weeks ago The Guardian wrote: Early forecasts suggest El Niño will return later in 2023, exacerbating extreme weather around the globe and making it
by noiv 4y ago
Well, some weeks ago The Guardian wrote:
Early forecasts suggest El Niño will return later in 2023, exacerbating extreme weather around the globe and making it “very likely” the world will exceed 1.5C of warming. The hottest year in recorded history, 2016, was driven by a major El Niño.
1.5°C is basically already locked in.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/16/return-of-el-nino-will-cause-off-the-chart-temperature-rise-climate-crisis https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/jan/16/return-o...
- SketchySeaBeast 4y agoI'm confused as to how a part of the system can cause a change in the whole system. I understand it's changes based upon ocean temperatures, but it's not as though during an El Nino yeah our global temperature goes up and during a La Nina year it goes down, right? I can follow that El Nino will get worse and cause more local extremes across the global, but I don't know how it will cause or exacerbate the 1.5C global heating.
- noiv 4y agoWarming of 1.5C is an average over the entire planet and a warming Pacific Ocean can drive this average beyond the threshold. Also nowadays an El Nina more or less pauses the warming.
- SketchySeaBeast 4y agoIs an El Nino actually a warmer Pacific ocean, heating the global average? I assumed it was changes in currents that were already there and the heat was already in the water somewhere.
- noiv 4y agoThat's right, we're talking surface temperature.
- SketchySeaBeast 4y agoGotcha. I always missed that bit - I had to dig a fair ways into the documentation before I found "surface" temperature mentioned. Thanks for your patience.
- noiv 4y agoGlad to help understand.