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By 2055, Japan's population is projected to fall to 90 million, with (medium fertility/medium mortality): 8 million being children aged 0-14 46 million being
by rocket_surgeron 4y ago
By 2055, Japan's population is projected to fall to 90 million, with (medium fertility/medium mortality):
8 million being children aged 0-14
46 million being "working aged" 15-64
36 million being 65 or older
Population Projections for Japan: 2006-2055 Outline of Results, Methods, and Assumptions (PDF) https://www.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/WebJournal.files/population/2008_4/05population.pdf https://www.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/WebJournal.files/population/2...
Let's ignore the assertion that 15 and 16 year olds are "working aged" no matter how you allocate resources 46 million workers cannot support 36 million retirees.
Today there are around 3 million healthcare workers in Japan out of a working aged population of 80 million. In 30 years the number of retirees will be the same but the working aged population will roughly halve. This is just people working in hospitals, in-home care specialists are not counted. Nor are bureaucrats, only workers in 24 categories of direct-support healthcare fields are counted.
Human Resources for Health Country Profiles: Japan (PDF) https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1147882/retrieve https://apps.who.int/iris/rest/bitstreams/1147882/retrieve
There are already critical shortages of healthcare workers and in 30 years the demand will be the just about the same (most healthcare resources are consumed by the elderly) but the labor pool will be smaller.
If there were 0 bureaucrats there still wouldn't be enough people.
Many European nations face the same demographic challenges that Japan does, to a very slightly less severe degree.
Robots are one solution.
- SideburnsOfDoom 4y ago> Japan's population .. Robots are one solution. FYI, the last episode of the "Tech Won't save us" podcast focuses on robots for elder care in Japan. Entitled "Robots Aren’t the Solution to Elder Care w/ James Wright" https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/robots-arent-the-solution-to-elder-care-w-james-wright/id1507621076?i=1000604448771 https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/robots-arent-the-solut... Related to his recent book on the subject: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/63199878-robots-won-t-save-japan https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/63199878-robots-won-t-sa...
- version_five 4y agoIf there were 0 bureaucrats there still wouldn't be enough people Whether or not that's true, making the denial of basic human interaction the front line of creating "efficiency" is not the place to start. Not only is it dehumanizing, it encourages all of the wrong kind of behaviors, particularly administrative bloat, and ignores the reason we have social programs in the first place. If we've collectively decided we want to care for a group, we have to actually do it, not pay administrators to pretend it's being done.
- hypertele-Xii 4y agoLike your computer is pretending you're submitting a comment, rather than actually coming to my house to explain your point of view?