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We'll keep getting "final warnings" as we pass "realistic hope of keeping warming under X" and "a sliver of hope for keeping warming under X if a literal miracl

We'll keep getting "final warnings" as we pass "realistic hope of keeping warming under X" and "a sliver of hope for keeping warming under X if a literal miracle occurs" thresholds for different warming levels. The next major report like this will probably have a best-case scenario of more like 2.0C. We're at "a sliver of hope if a literal miracle occurs" for 1.5C (realistic hope of keeping it that low was probably gone a decade ago, and you may have seen that shift reflected in earlier reports) and have passed similar thresholds for 1.0C already.

fwlr 4y ago
All I can take from this comment is there are several likelihood thresholds and an array of future Celsius values which can be combined to generate arbitrarily many “final warnings”. Sigh.
- antisthenes 4y ago
  We're terribly sorry the reality is a bit more complex and doesn't conform to your mental model of an "if then" statement.
  - fwlr 4y ago
    If you read my original comment more closely you’ll see I have no trouble with the complexity of the reality of climate change, and what I am taking issue with is the annoying method of communication of predictions about that reality, communication that resembles nothing so much as systematized crying wolf. I’m not even asking for it to stop, or threatening to spitefully disbelieve in climate change because of it, I’m just asking for it to be served with a spoonful of kindness. I don’t have anything productive or polite to say about you misinterpreting my comment as climate denial and then mocking me for having a simplistic mental model.
    - antisthenes 4y ago
      > I don’t have anything productive or polite to say about you misinterpreting my comment as climate denial It's good to know you've at least returned the favor in misinterpreting my comment in kind. > what I am taking issue with is the annoying method of communication of predictions about that reality, communication that resembles nothing so much as systematized crying wolf. I’m not even asking for it to stop, or threatening to spitefully disbelieve in climate change because of it, I’m just asking for it to be served with a spoonful of kindness. And this is extremely petty and ludicrous. Get past the communication methods and look at the core of the problem. If someone can't do that, then I have nothing to offer them but mockery. This is not directed at you personally (just in case you misinterpret my comment again)
      - fwlr 4y ago
        It’s not petty or ludicrous to ask for messaging about climate change to be slightly kinder, or to come with a bit of empathy for how exhausting the messaging is. It is petty and ludicrous to say that if someone is bothered by the messaging then they deserve nothing but mockery.
SamPatt 4y ago
The issue is that we crossed those previous thresholds and ... the world kept improving? If you look at sites like Our World in Data then nearly all metrics of human progress have dramatically improved over the past century, while temperatures increased 1°C. So it isn't clear that another degree increase will lead to catastrophe. The numbers are round and arbitrary. Our increased wealth and technology has improved lives far, far more than the increased temperature has diminished them, and I don't see why that trend won't continue.

fwlr 4y ago

All I can take from this comment is there are several likelihood thresholds and an array of future Celsius values which can be combined to generate arbitrarily many “final warnings”. Sigh.

antisthenes 4y ago
We're terribly sorry the reality is a bit more complex and doesn't conform to your mental model of an "if then" statement.
- fwlr 4y ago
  If you read my original comment more closely you’ll see I have no trouble with the complexity of the reality of climate change, and what I am taking issue with is the annoying method of communication of predictions about that reality, communication that resembles nothing so much as systematized crying wolf. I’m not even asking for it to stop, or threatening to spitefully disbelieve in climate change because of it, I’m just asking for it to be served with a spoonful of kindness. I don’t have anything productive or polite to say about you misinterpreting my comment as climate denial and then mocking me for having a simplistic mental model.
  - antisthenes 4y ago
    > I don’t have anything productive or polite to say about you misinterpreting my comment as climate denial It's good to know you've at least returned the favor in misinterpreting my comment in kind. > what I am taking issue with is the annoying method of communication of predictions about that reality, communication that resembles nothing so much as systematized crying wolf. I’m not even asking for it to stop, or threatening to spitefully disbelieve in climate change because of it, I’m just asking for it to be served with a spoonful of kindness. And this is extremely petty and ludicrous. Get past the communication methods and look at the core of the problem. If someone can't do that, then I have nothing to offer them but mockery. This is not directed at you personally (just in case you misinterpret my comment again)
    - fwlr 4y ago
      It’s not petty or ludicrous to ask for messaging about climate change to be slightly kinder, or to come with a bit of empathy for how exhausting the messaging is. It is petty and ludicrous to say that if someone is bothered by the messaging then they deserve nothing but mockery.

SamPatt 4y ago

The issue is that we crossed those previous thresholds and ... the world kept improving? If you look at sites like Our World in Data then nearly all metrics of human progress have dramatically improved over the past century, while temperatures increased 1°C. So it isn't clear that another degree increase will lead to catastrophe. The numbers are round and arbitrary. Our increased wealth and technology has improved lives far, far more than the increased temperature has diminished them, and I don't see why that trend won't continue.