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> So it sounds like they are not accounting for things like changes between crops or changing which areas are cultivated, which could be pretty significant. >

by mrpopo 4y ago

> So it sounds like they are not accounting for things like changes between crops or changing which areas are cultivated, which could be pretty significant. > it seems like you would have account for more Canadian land becoming arable and agriculture spreading further north. It's a map. It's litterally showing the changes by areas. And the map does show areas with increased maize yield, such as Southern Africa, but these don't include Canada or Russia. Potentially the full volume will include other crops yields and more details that you are hoping for. Of course, the world will adapt and change their crops, but it will come at a cost for people who are unable to adapt, such as farmers in underdeveloped countries.

tablespoon 4y ago
> It's a map. One that appears to not answer the question I posed, or answer it in the negative (as in, they're not modeling realistic agricultural adaptations). > It's litterally [sic] showing the changes by areas. Apparently only "in currently cultivated areas." It's hard to get worked up over the predictions of a model that basically assumes everyone continues to do the exact same stuff while everything else changes, even if that would mean individuals fail to meet their short-term goals. It wouldn't have been hard to depict the area under cultivation creeping further north (or the area under cultivation receding in other areas). > Potentially the full volume will include other crops yields and more details that you are hoping for. Those are not the details I'm looking for. It would be closer to what I'm looking for if they took that data, divided the world into plots, then for each scenario picked the highest yielding crop for that plot, to come up with an overall agricultural productivity estimate. I say that's only closer, because it presumably wouldn't reflect other reasonable and straightforward agricultural adaptations.
- mrpopo 4y ago
  I think you are too much focused on global agricultural productivity, which will not be a life-or-death problem for anyone with access to the global market, such as you. Fear not, global warming will not leave you starving. Global warming and crop yield change will affect, as I said before, farmers in some communities such as central Africa, rural Asia, indigenous populations, who don't import their food from around the world, don't have the means or don't want to do so.
  - tablespoon 4y ago
    > I think you are too much focused on global agricultural productivity, which will not be a life-or-death problem for anyone with access to the global market That one thing I was focused on, but there were others that a are other that appear to be missed, for instance take your... > farmers in some communities such as central Africa, rural Asia, indigenous populations, who don't import their food from around the world What will be their actual experience? The estimates seem to assume they'll just keep doing the exact same thing they are now, but that's easy to model but unrealistic. It's extremely likely they'll change their crops or techniques to improve yields in the new environment, and I think results derived from model that doesn't account for that are not useful to a layman.

by mrpopo 4y ago

tablespoon 4y ago

> It's a map. One that appears to not answer the question I posed, or answer it in the negative (as in, they're not modeling realistic agricultural adaptations). > It's litterally [sic] showing the changes by areas. Apparently only "in currently cultivated areas." It's hard to get worked up over the predictions of a model that basically assumes everyone continues to do the exact same stuff while everything else changes, even if that would mean individuals fail to meet their short-term goals. It wouldn't have been hard to depict the area under cultivation creeping further north (or the area under cultivation receding in other areas). > Potentially the full volume will include other crops yields and more details that you are hoping for. Those are not the details I'm looking for. It would be closer to what I'm looking for if they took that data, divided the world into plots, then for each scenario picked the highest yielding crop for that plot, to come up with an overall agricultural productivity estimate. I say that's only closer, because it presumably wouldn't reflect other reasonable and straightforward agricultural adaptations.

mrpopo 4y ago
I think you are too much focused on global agricultural productivity, which will not be a life-or-death problem for anyone with access to the global market, such as you. Fear not, global warming will not leave you starving. Global warming and crop yield change will affect, as I said before, farmers in some communities such as central Africa, rural Asia, indigenous populations, who don't import their food from around the world, don't have the means or don't want to do so.
- tablespoon 4y ago
  > I think you are too much focused on global agricultural productivity, which will not be a life-or-death problem for anyone with access to the global market That one thing I was focused on, but there were others that a are other that appear to be missed, for instance take your... > farmers in some communities such as central Africa, rural Asia, indigenous populations, who don't import their food from around the world What will be their actual experience? The estimates seem to assume they'll just keep doing the exact same thing they are now, but that's easy to model but unrealistic. It's extremely likely they'll change their crops or techniques to improve yields in the new environment, and I think results derived from model that doesn't account for that are not useful to a layman.