On a year by year level they've been pretty bad but on a decade by decade basis they've been pretty much spot on. Why wasn't there any increase in the average

On a year by year level they've been pretty bad but on a decade by decade basis they've been pretty much spot on. Why wasn't there any increase in the average temperature between 2004 and 2014? Nobody know, but in 2015 global temperature spiked all the way up to where predicted and stayed there. There's been this weird stepwise pattern to the warming but the general trend is in line with predictions. The general relationship between increased CO2 and warming has been known since the 19th century, though they were off by a factor of two on the slope back then. Modern climate models have a lot of moving and it's not clear they're actually better than the "Assume a spherical^H^H^H^H homogeneous atmosphere" models but the basic physics and general trend line are hard to ignore.